NFL odds, picks for Week 1: Advanced computer model loves Cardinals, Chiefs

The opening weekend of NFL season has been drawing huge action from professional and amateur bettors alike. With Eagles-Falcons in the books and 15 games still to come, Week 1 NFL odds are continuing to move. The Vikings are favored by 6.5 points in Kirk Cousins' debut against the 49ers, up two from the opener. The Packers are seven-point favorites against the Bears on Sunday Night Football in Aaron Rodgers' return from a collarbone injury, and after opening at -2.5, the Rams are now favored by 4.5 against the Raiders in Jon Gruden's first game back in Oakland. With NFL odds on the move and major storylines unfolding in Week 1, you'll want to see the NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

This proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000. 

Now it has simulated every snap of Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and its Week 1 NFL picks are in. 

One Week 1 NFL pick the model likes: The Cardinals (-2) get a win and cover at home against the Redskins.

Adrian Peterson returns to Arizona after signing with Washington in the preseason. The model is projecting 13 carries for 41 yards for the veteran back, while Alex Smith completes 22-of-33 passes for 244 yards in his Washington debut.

But Sam Bradford throws for 254 yards in his first game in Arizona, while David Johnson, who just received a three-year, $39 million extension, accounts for 110 yards of total offense to lead the Cardinals to a victory. Arizona covers the spread almost 60 percent of the time, and the Under (43.5) hits in 55 percent of simulations. 

Another Week 1 NFL pick we can give away: The model says the Chargers (-3.5) escape with a narrow victory over the Chiefs, but it'll be closer than Vegas anticipates. 

The model says Patrick Mahomes has an impressive debut as a full-time starter for Kansas City, throwing for 253 yards and a touchdown, while Kareem Hunt adds over 80 yards on the ground. But Philip Rivers will throw for nearly 300 yards, almost 100 to Keenan Allen, as the Chargers pull out a slim one-point victory. The Chiefs, however, are the team to back against the spread because they cover in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also projecting 48 total points, a slight lean to the Under (49), and says there's plenty of value on the Chiefs money line (+160).

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, and it's also calling for one Super Bowl contender to come flying out of the gates with a monumental victory that doubles the spread. You can get all these NFL picks only over at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5, 40.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 45.5)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 39.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3, 42)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-10, 49.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5, 50)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 47.5)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 49)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3, 42)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 43.5)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 46.5)
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 45)
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 48.5)

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