I'm glad it's the Kansas City Chiefs facing off against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII. These two truly appear to be the best teams in the NFL.
The Chiefs have experience on this big stage, and almost appear to be rejuvenated following that win over the trash-talking Cincinnati Bengals. Patrick Mahomes and Co. reminded everyone why the Chiefs are perennial contenders. As for the Eagles, they have coasted in the postseason, winning both of their playoff matchups by at least 24 points. Is that a sign of things to come, or will that actually hurt Philly in the end?
Last year in the Super Bowl, I predicted the Los Angeles Rams would defeat the Bengals by exactly three points. Let's see if I can be that spot-on two years in a row. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.
All odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Playoff ATS record: 7-5
Playoff straight up record: 10-2
Top five picks ATS record: 43-45-1
Overall ATS record: 135-129-7
Straight up record: 177-92-2
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fuboTV)
No matter which facet of this matchup you want to look at, it's fascinating all around. This is the youngest quarterback matchup in Super Bowl history, the Eagles and Chiefs ranked 1-2 in sacks during the regular season, both were the top scoring offenses from their respective conferences and then both scored exactly 546 points to this point.
There are a few X-factors in this matchup we all should keep an eye on. For one, how does the Chiefs' offensive line and Mahomes deal with the Eagles' pass rush? Haason Reddick is playing like a man possessed. He has 3.5 sacks in two playoff games so far. That's already the most postseason sacks for a player in Eagles franchise history. He has three straight seasons with 10-plus sacks, and all three came on different teams! He's the first player to ever accomplish that. Between he, Javon Hargrave, Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat and Fletcher Cox, pressure will be paramount on Sunday.
Additionally, eliminating Travis Kelce is going to be of the upmost importance. I'm confident Darius Slay and James Bradberry can take care of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but Kelce is almost unstoppable. He has the second most receiving yards in postseason history and second most postseason receptions. Something to note here: Kelce has seven touchdowns vs. man coverage this season, and just one vs. zone coverage. He has four touchdowns vs. hybrid coverages, which is what I think Philly will run. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is going to be important here, since he's the hybrid I believe the Eagles will use on Kelce. CGJ tied for the NFL lead in interceptions this season with six.
The final X-factor I'm interested in is a very general one. It's just how this Chiefs defense as a whole will stop the Eagles offense. Can they hold Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders in check on the ground? Can they limit explosive plays between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith? Can they pressure Hurts to where he's not accurate throwing the football? Everyone is excited for the Chiefs offense vs. Eagles defense. I think the Chiefs defense vs. the Eagles offense could be what decides the game.
Now, for the pick. I'm a little surprised the Chiefs are underdogs in this game. I'm more surprised they are plus money on the moneyline. That just sounds wrong. Mahomes has never been a playoff underdog in 13 career starts, and he is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 SU in his career as a regular-season underdog. With a record like that, I'm going to take it every time. Plus, Mahomes and the Chiefs have been on this big stage before. Many of the Eagles' important players have not. Philly is an incredible team, and the more talented unit. However, Super Bowl experience really should come in handy in a tight game.
The pick: Chiefs +1.5
Projected score: Chiefs 27-24
