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NFL
Picks - Week 16
Betting on the NFL has become a key way for fans to enjoy pro football as sports betting comes online in states across the country. Sportsbooks go all out to bring NFL bettors to their apps through an array of profit boosts, same-game parlays and other promotions. NFL odds are a key part of the discourse around the league, whether it’s the spread, money line or total for a particular game, or futures odds like who wins the championship or Rookie of the Year. Each season culminates in the biggest sports betting event of the year with the Super Bowl.
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Odds and lines are subject to change.

NFL Sports Betting Terms:

  • The NFL’s popularity in American sports betting and the nature of each team having just one game per week allows for bettors to dive into each matchup and look for ways to predict the outcome better than the sportsbooks. Here are a few terms you need to know if you want to learn more about NFL betting:

  • Lines:

    Lines refer to the odds for any bettable outcome in an NFL game, and they can include spreads, money lines and totals. The most standard NFL lines are spreads, in which one team is given a scoring margin they have to beat in order to win the bet, which is also known as covering. For a three-point spread, the team that’s favored will be listed as -3 and will cover if they can win by four or more points. The underdog will be listed at +3 and will cover if it wins or loses by 1 or 2 points. If the favorite wins by exactly 3, the outcome is a push, and all spread bets will be refunded their original stakes. The money line involves betting on the winner of the game, regardless of the scoring margin. The odds associated with each team will be correlated with the spreads, so that betting on the underdog returns a higher profit on the same amount bet should they pull off the upset. Money line odds tell you either how much you have to bet to win $100 if the listed odds are negative, or how much can be won by betting $100 if the listed odds are positive. A -200 favorite would require a $200 bet to win $100 (or a $2 bet to win $1). A +200 underdog would pay $200 for a $100 wager (or a $1 bet would win $2).

  • Total:

    The total refers to the total number of points scored. The standard total listed for each game allows bettors to take a position on how many points will be scored over the course of the entire game. Bettors also have the option to bet total points in each half or any of the four quarters. Totals will be listed with a line and bettors can choose over or under the total listed, with payouts tied to the odds given for each side of the wager. A total of 45 with an Over of -115 and an Under of -105 will pay out $100 for every $115 wagered on the Over if the final combined score is 46 points or more, while it will pay $100 for every $105 wagered on the Under if the final combined score is 44 or less. A final score of 45 combined points will be graded a push and wagers will be refunded their original stakes.

  • Props:

    Prop betting allows bettors to take positions on any number of outcomes in a game. Those can include player props, like which players will score touchdowns; game props, like whether there will be overtime; or team props, like whether one team will go over or under a point total unique to them. Player props are one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL and are typically a core component of building same-game parlays. Key players on each team will have lines assigned to statistical outcomes, and bettors can make wagers on whether they will go over or under the line. For example, a quarterback could have props on whether they will have over or under 250.5 passing yards, or 1.5 touchdown passes, or 0.5 interceptions. Game props allow for betting on certain events happening in each game, like each team scoring a touchdown and kicking a field goal. Bettors can also take positions on the winning margin, which team scores 10 points first and other variations of potential outcomes during the course of the game. Team props give bettors the opportunity to focus on one team’s point total, taking it over or under the line the sportsbooks provide. Team totals can also be available for individual halves and quarters of the game. Bigger games may also offer a number of additional team props like total yards gained as a team or sacks recorded.

  • Live Betting:

    Sportsbooks will allow bettors to make live bets during NFL games, adjusting the odds on spreads, totals, money lines and props in real time as each play happens. This allows bettors to take stock of team or player performance as the game goes along and react to certain matchup advantages they identify, injuries that impact the expected performance of the rest of the team, and even to wager on improbable comeback wins at high potential payouts. There is often an opportunity to bet on the outcome of specific drives as well, like wagering on the team that gets the ball first in the second half to score a field goal or a touchdown. Or, if two offenses appear to be struggling, bettors can back the next drive to end in a punt. Live betting also allows bettors to hedge some of their pregame bets to guarantee a profit if their wagers get out to strong starts but they want a bit of insurance. For example, an underdog that is catching 7.5 points on the pregame spread will see that line drop if they get out to an early lead, and if the sportsbooks make that underdog +2.5 on the live line, a bettor can then take the other side and know they’ll win at least one bet with a chance of hitting both if the favorite wins by 3-7 points.

  • Futures Betting:

    Futures betting refers to bets placed on future outcomes rather than a single game. These could involve which team will win a division, conference or championship, or even just whether they will make the playoffs. One popular NFL futures bet is a win total, where bettors can play whether a team will win more (over) or less (under) games than the line given by sportsbooks. A win total of 9.5 will pay to the Over if a team wins 10 or more games, while the Under will cash if that team wins nine or fewer games. Season-long awards also provide a way to take a position on certain players reaching their top outcomes. MVP, Rookie of the Year and Coach of the Year are just some of the awards that could be available at sportsbooks, depending on state regulations. Player props have a futures betting component as well, where bettors are predicting whether a player will finish higher or lower than the line set by the books in a particular statistical category. For example, a running back could be listed with a total of 1000.5 rushing yards or 9.5 rushing touchdowns.

Today's Top Free Expert Picks

  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #4
    +1197
    (64%)
    35-20 in Last 55 NFL Player Props Picks
    LAR @ SEA • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    R. Shaheed
    Over 32.5
    -116
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:07am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +389
    (83%)
    5-1 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
    LAR @ SEA • Thu 8:15pm
    player headshot
    R. Shaheed
    Over 17.5
    -120
    Longest Reception
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 3:20pm

    Analysis

    Rashid Shaheed has an explosive reception in each of the past two games. He’s gotten acclimated to Seattle’s offense, drawing 12 targets the past two weeks. He also had a long catch in the first meeting with the Rams, who are susceptible to outside receivers. In what should be a close game, I bet Shaheed to make at least one big play.
  • expert headshot
    Daniel Vithlani
    +879
    (53%)
    108-94-2 in Last 204 NFL Picks
    LAR @ SEA • Thu 8:15pm
    Under 44.5
    -118
    Over/Under
    Picked: Dec 17 @ 2:17am

    Analysis

    More than 70% of the public betting tickets are on the Over, yet the total is ticking down to 43.5 on most books. Rams WR Davante Adams did not practice on Tuesday and doesn’t seem likely to play. That’s a big blow for the Rams- Adams leads the NFL in receiving TDs and red zone targets. When these teams last met in Week 11, the Rams won 21-19 and forced 4 interceptions from Sam Darnold. That game was played indoors at SoFi Stadium, and the Rams will now head to the raucous atmosphere at Lumen Field. Seattle’s defense has been elite, allowing 21 or fewer points in 11/14 games this season. Play the under in this late season NFC West clash for first place.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +883
    (66%)
    21-11 in Last 32 NFL Player Props Picks
    PHI @ WAS • Sat 5:00pm
    player headshot
    J. Hurts
    YES
    +105
    Anytime TD Scorer
    Picked: Dec 17 @ 12:35am

    Analysis

    The Eagles finally got back on track against the Raiders, and this is another good matchup for their offense. The Washington defense has allowed 3+ TDs in every game played stateside since Week 6, and giving up 21 points and 384 yards to the Giants last week represents one of their best outings in that stretch. We're used to seeing Hurts' ATD prop at much shorter odds in this type of matchup, and even if Lane Johnson isn't able to make it back this week, I think he shouldn't be plus odds to score against a defense that gives up loads of points.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +805
    (53%)
    145-129-5 in Last 279 NFL Picks
    TB @ CAR • Sun 1:00pm
    CAR +3
    -110
    Spread
    Picked: Dec 16 @ 11:02am

    Analysis

    The Bucs offense is as healthy as its been all season, leading to a quality game against the Falcons last week. Of course, the defense did enough to lose the game once again, and that unit continues to struggle with offenses that can throw the ball effectively. Bryce Young proved he can do that at home in the upset of the Rams two weeks ago, so I expect the Panthers to have success on offense. The Carolina defense has played better since getting destroyed by the Bills, and the Panthers are healthy on both sides of the ball. I like them to win this game and I'll definitely take the full field goal.

Today's Top Free Player Prop Picks

Built using SportsLine's cutting-edge machine learning, predictions and ratings are generated for each player prop by analyzing historical performance, opponent matchup scores, odds, and prop line movements
  • LAR @ SEA • 8:15 pm
    player headshot
    S. Darnold
    Under 19.5
    -122
    Pass Completions
    PROJ: 17.8
  • GB @ CHI • 8:20 pm
    player headshot
    J. Love
    Under 20.5
    -125
    Pass Completions
    PROJ: 18.7
  • PHI @ WAS • 5:00 pm
    player headshot
    J. Hurts
    Under 219.5
    -114
    Passing Yards
    PROJ: 188.4

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