Tennis: US Open

Rafael Nadal has his eyes on the Grand Slam record, but he could face a fitness test on Thursday against Matteo Berrettini in a 2022 Australian Open men's semifinal. Nadal was out for several months with a foot injury and then battled COVID, but he remains on track for his 21st Grand Slam men's singles title. That would break the deadlock with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer, who are both not playing in Melbourne. Nadal is in his seventh Australian Open semifinal, but he went on to win just once, in 2009. Both players needed around four hours to get past the quarterfinals, with Nadal beating Denis Shapovalov and Berrettini outlasting Gael Monfils to become the first Italian man to reach the semifinals in Melbourne.

First serve is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. Nadal is a -200 favorite (risk $200 to win $100) in Caesars Sportsbook's latest 2022 Australian Open odds, and Berrettini is the +160 underdog (risk $100 to win $160). There are numerous bets you can make on the Nadal vs. Berrettini semifinal match, including an over-under on total games at 38.5 and whether both players will win a set (Yes -165, No +127). Before making any Berrettini vs. Nadal picks, be sure to see the 2022 Australian Open predictions from internationally acclaimed tennis expert Sean Calvert.

Calvert is the elite tennis handicapper who called Stan Wawrinka winning the 2014 Australian Open at 60-1 – the last Australian title won by someone other than Djokovic or Federer. In 2019, Calvert took down a huge score on Dominic Thiem winning Indian Wells at 80-1, among many stunning calls.

And in 2021, he nailed both of his bets for the Wimbledon men's singles final: Djokovic to beat Matteo Berrettini three sets to one (+275) and Djokovic to win and both players to win a set (+130). Anyone following his picks is way up.

Now, Calvert has scrutinized the latest Australian Open 2022 odds and released his coveted best bets for Nadal vs. Berrettini. He's sharing all his picks and analysis at SportsLine.

Rafael Nadal vs. Matteo Berrettini preview

Nadal's mental fortitude was on display again in the quarterfinal as he overcame a stomach ailment to gut out the five-set victory. Berrettini has actually played more than Nadal at this tournament, spending more than 16 hours on the court while Nadal had lost just one set before the quarterfinal. He also has a massive edge in experience and will be facing an opponent who has won just one of 15 career matches against top-five players. Nadal is No. 5 in the world.

Berrettini has struggled mightily to break serve against elite opponents, breaking just 5 percent against those top-five players. He also has a weak backhand that Nadal will be sure to exploit, and the Spaniard knows how to use a player's aggressiveness against him. He also knows a chance like this doesn't come along often, with the top player on his side of the draw (Alexander Zverev) out early and Djokovic and Federer missing. Nadal won the only previous matchup between the players, getting past Berrettini in three sets in the 2019 U.S. Open semifinals.

However, Berrettini is 10 years younger than Nadal and plays an all-out attacking style. The 25-year-old has played a lot of tennis in this tournament, but that will benefit him if he can push this one past three sets. Nadal made uncharacteristic mistakes in his quarterfinal, and his fitness is likely to be tested. Berrettini has a powerful serve and a dangerous forehand, and he will try to take Nadal out of his comfort zone. He has 92 aces in his five matches in Melbourne.

This is Berretini's third Grand Slam semifinal, and he is seeking just his second final appearance. He reached the Wimbledon final last year, winning the first set before losing the next three to Djokovic. The world's seventh-ranked player, Berrettini has five career ATP titles and won his first ATP 500 event last season at Queen's Club. He will be the highest-ranked player world No. 5 Nadal has faced since his lengthy injury recovery and a battle with COVID. 

How to make Nadal vs. Berrettini picks 

Calvert has analyzed Berrettini vs. Nadal from every angle. He's locked in a couple prop bets he loves, including one that returns more than 4-1. You need to see his picks and analysis before considering any 2022 Australian Open bets.

So what are the best bets you can make for the Nadal vs. Berrettini in the 2022 Australian Open men's semifinal? And which prop pick could lead to a big return? Visit SportsLine now to see Sean Calvert's best bets for Berrettini vs. Nadal, all from the renowned tennis expert who called Wawrinka winning this event at 60-1.