Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys odds, 2023 U.S. Open predictions: Tennis expert reveals semifinal picks

Women's tennis expert Jose Onorato has revealed his U.S. Open 2023 picks for Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka in the women's singles semifinals

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 7, 2023 at 7:15 pm ET • 3 min read

USATSI

Second-ranked Aryna Sabalenka has reached her fifth consecutive Grand Slam semifinal and will be looking to advance to her second Grand Slam final this year when she takes on Madison Keys on Thursday at 8:15 p.m. ET in their U.S. Open women's singles match at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Flushing Meadows, N.Y. Sabalenka, who has won 13 career singles championships, earned her first Grand Slam title in January at the Australian Open. Keys is seeking her first Grand Slam title and first appearance in a final since reaching the championship match of the 2017 U.S. Open. Sabalenka owns a 2-1 career mark over Keys.

Sabalenka is listed as the -280 favorite on the money line (risk $280 to win $100), while Keys is at +210. The game total over/under is 21.5. This will be the second time in two months the pair will have faced one another. Before making any Muchova vs. Gauff picks or 2023 U.S. Open predictions, you need to see what tennis expert Jose Onorato has to say.

Onorato grew up playing competitive tennis in Caracas, Venezuela. After coming to the U.S., he trained with famed coach Nick Bollettieri at IMG Academy in Florida and faced players like Robert Farah, now one of the world's top-ranked doubles players. Onorato, who holds dual degrees in finance and economics from the University of Miami, does extensive research before placing any tennis bet.

He studies current form, players' tendencies on a particular surface, weather conditions and many other relevant factors. That systematic approach has helped Onorato go 128-90-7 (+69.25 units) since 2022.

Now, Onorato has scrutinized the latest U.S. Open 2023 odds and released his coveted best bet for the Sabalenka vs. Keys semifinal match. He's sharing his pick and analysis only at SportsLine.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys preview

Onorato sees both players as being capable of winning a Grand Slam title, but Sabalenka has been on a major roll this tournament. The 25-year-old Belarusian has won all five of her matches in straight sets. She is coming off a 6-1, 6-4 victory over China's Qinwen Zheng on Wednesday in the quarterfinals. Prior to that match, she had not lost more than three games in any set in the event.

Sabalenka, who turned pro in 2015, has held the No. 2 ranking since January. She earned her first Grand Slam victory by defeating Elena Rybakina 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 to win the women's singles tennis title at the 2023 Australian Open. She has followed that up with a pair of semifinal appearances at both the French Open and Wimbledon. For her career, she has compiled a 312-150 (67.5%) record.

The 28-year-old Keys advanced to the semifinals with a 6-1, 6-4 win over Marketa Vondrousova of The Czech Republic. That came on the heels of her stunning 6-1, 6-3 fourth-round win over third-ranked Jessica Pegula of the United States. She got past Liudmila Samsonova of Russia in a hard-fought 5-7, 6-2, 6-2 win in the third round. Keys hadn't gotten past the fourth round at the U.S. Open since 2019, bowing out in the third round last year.

Keys, who turned pro in 2009, has seven career singles titles. She has been ranked No. 17 since Aug. 21, and had been as high as No. 7 in October 2016. Keys has had a lot of success this year, going 33-11, including a 19-7 mark on hard surfaces. She has a 222-129 (63.2%) career mark on the surface, and is 361-205 (63.8%) all-time. See who Onorato is backing right here.