The New York Mets defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers by a 7-3 final on Monday in Game 2 of the National League Championship Series, knotting the best-of-seven set at 1-1. For the Mets, the contest was an overwhelming success. Left-hander Sean Manaea held the majors' fiercest lineup in check over five innings of work; shortstop Francisco Lindor and third baseman Mark Vientos combined for two home runs and five runs batted in to demonstrate why they're best offensive left side of the infield still playing; and, last but not least, the Mets no longer have to worry about climbing out of an 0-2 deficit -- a proposition that, empirically, has a devastatingly small success rate (less than 20%).
If there was one blemish to be found in the Mets' sterling afternoon, it was the nail biting caused by closer Edwin Díaz.
Although Díaz recorded four outs on Monday without allowing a run, he certainly took the scenic route to his destination. That included putting on two runners to begin the ninth inning ahead of at-bats from Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernández, and Freddie Freeman. Díaz navigated his way out of trouble by striking out the trio, but his Houdini-like escape act couldn't obscure how this has become commonplace for him.
Edwin Díaz's 3Ks in the 9th. 🎺🎺🎺 pic.twitter.com/8B2yC7NpVQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 14, 2024
Indeed, Díaz has now pitched four times this postseason; he's yet to complete an outing, no matter the length of it, without surrendering at least two baserunners.The Mets have won three of those four contests, so you'd be tempted to say no harm, no foul. But give the opponents enough opportunities in late-and-close situations, and eventually harm and foul will be rendered in the form of runs and losses alike.
Díaz, who posted his second-worst ERA+ in his first season back since blowing out his patella tendon while celebrating during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, has struggled to find the feel for his trademark slider. Whereas during the regular season, his top secondary pitch went for a strike on 68.4% of occasions, thus far this postseason it's recorded a strike just 54% of the time. His other metrics are, predictably, also in the dumps:
| Díaz's slider split | Swing% | Whiff% | Chase% | In Zone% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Regular season | 55.1% | 39.4% | 40.3% | 46.7% |
Playoffs | 42% | 47.6% | 28.1% | 36% |
Díaz is getting far fewer swings and far fewer chases, and he's throwing it far less often within the strike zone. When he does fling a slider that's well-placed, he's still more than capable of generating a swinging strike. But take a look at his heat map and you'll notice that he's having a lot of his sliders either back up on him or end up in non-competitive locations that have little chance of advancing his cause.
This, in turn, has led to Díaz issuing six walks in 4 2/3 innings of work. It's also reduced the nature of his game to one pitch: his fastball. While that restriction makes him more predictable, it doesn't necessarily make him a lame duck on the mound. In fact, he turned things around on Monday once he became focused on blowing his heater past the Dodgers' bats: 13 of his final 14 pitches were fastballs, with nine of those going for a strike and four for whiffs.
Make no mistake: Díaz will eventually need to rediscover his slider to return to full power. Until then, though, the Mets would be wise to have him lean more on No. 1 -- if only to avoid the kind of soul-robbing postseason crackup that can sour what's been an incredible late-season run for the Mets.
