We had some incredible developments in the NFL this past week. Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears destroyed the Jacksonville Jaguars in London, Lamar Jackson bested Jayden Daniels and the red-hot Washington Commanders in the Battle of the Beltway, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped a franchise-record 594 yards of total offense against the rival New Orleans Saints and the Detroit Lions ruined Jerry Jones' 82nd birthday with a 47-9 beatdown of his Dallas Cowboys.
As we do every week, we are going to examine some of the biggest questions in the NFL following Sunday's action. The Lions lost arguably their best player to a season-ending injury, the Cowboys are completely flailing and there's now a discussion about the Bears' ceiling this season. So, let's take a deep dive into some of these topics.
1. Impact of Aidan Hutchinson injury
The Hutchinson injury, unfortunately, was the headline of Week 6, as the Lions' star pass rusher broke his tibia and fibula against the Cowboys. It was a pretty frightening scene. When Hutchinson remained down on the ground after the play, he removed his gloves as if he had a hand injury. Then you saw a replay, and you probably audibly gasped like I did.
If I was creating my own personal NFL MVP rankings, I would have had Hutchinson in the top three through the first five weeks of the season. He entered Week 6 the NFL leader in sacks (6.5), QB hits (14) and pressures (40), and didn't even play a game last week because of Detroit's bye. Hutchinson notched another sack against the Cowboys before suffering his injury.
The loss of Hutchinson is absolutely massive for the Lions. Not only is this Detroit's best defensive player, but one of the best players in the NFL. Then, you take a step back and remember the Lions reside in the extremely competitive NFC North -- which has been the best division in the NFL up to this point. The NFC North (17-5, .773 win pct) has the best record by any division through Week 6 since the 1970 merger! The Green Bay Packers are in last place at 4-2, which is the same record the first-place Baltimore Ravens have in the AFC North.
According to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, the Lions' chances of making the playoffs have now dropped by 14.8%, and their chances of winning the Super Bowl this year dropped by 3.4%.
| Lions | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| With Hutchinson | 10.4 | 61.2% | 18.5% | 69.8% | 13.0% | 6.4% |
| Without Hutchinson | 9.9 | 58.2% | 12.9% | 55.8% | 7.2% | 3.0% |
| Difference | -0.5 | -2.9% | -5.6% | -14.0% | -5.8% | -3.4% |
Those are the simulation numbers, but let me also put into words what Hutchinson's loss means for the Lions.
Pressuring the passer is incredibly important. That's why the EDGE guys get paid so much money, and as we saw this offseason, now the interior pass rushers are cashing in as well. Sacks are huge, but hurries are critical too. The quarterback can't go through his full progression, which leads to mistakes or simple check downs. What Hutchinson did for the Lions defense was important, because Detroit does not have an elite secondary.
The Lions rank bottom six in pass defense (246.2 passing yards allowed per game). Without Hutchinson in the lineup -- he is so great at shortening plays -- it's going to put more pressure on the back end. The Lions would be smart to peruse the trade market so they can continue on this track of being Super Bowl contenders, but there is no one Detroit can bring in that will replace what Hutchinson brought. Haason Reddick is the best option, but remember, he wants a lucrative contract extension as well.
2. Are the Cowboys cooked?
On Sunday, the Cowboys suffered their largest home loss in the Jerry Jones era (38 points). Sitting at 3-3 and in third place in the NFC East one-third of the way through the season, are the Cowboys cooked? Is there any hope of them bouncing back and retaining that status of "NFC contender?" I don't think so.
After the season-opening win over the Cleveland Browns, the Cowboys were blown out by the Saints, and dominated by the Ravens at home before a failed late-game comeback. Then, Dallas scraped by the lowly New York Giants, and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers victory in prime time was the closest thing to an "impressive" win. We thought at the time the win in Cleveland was big, but it turns out the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL.
What has happened to the Cowboys' home-field advantage? They have allowed the most points in a four-game span at home since the 1972-73 Oilers (167). Dallas is the second team in NFL history to trail by 15+ points at halftime in four straight home games, including playoffs, matching the 2013-14 Raiders. In that span, the Cowboys have been outscored 110-35 in the first half, and allowed 14 touchdowns on 19 first-half drives (excluding kneel downs). The Cowboys are also the first team in NFL HISTORY to allow 12+ yards per pass attempt in four straight home games.
The Cowboys have allowed 119 points in their first three home games this season. No team has allowed that many points in their first three games at home and made the playoffs. No team has been outscored by 66 points in their first three home games like the Cowboys have and made the playoffs either.
The defense stinks, and the offense can't find a rhythm. So yes, I think Cowboys fans will have more free time than they are used to in December/January. The Cowboys also have the eighth-toughest remaining schedule, according to Tankathon, and have a trip out to San Francisco scheduled after the bye. That will be an important showdown.
3. Are the Bears a sleeper in the NFC?
Congrats to the Bears on their 35-16 victory over the Jaguars, but we absolutely cannot overreact to a double-digit win over this lowly squad. Jacksonville is clearly one of the worst teams in the NFL, and it would have been embarrassing if the Bears lost on Sunday.
The Jaguars have the second-worst defense in the NFL (390 total yards allowed per game), worst pass defense (276.7 passing yards allowed per game) and second-worst scoring defense (29.7 points allowed per game). So, Caleb Williams throwing for 226 yards, four touchdowns and an interception maybe isn't the kind of breakthrough some believe it is. With that being said, it's clear Chicago is improving.
The Bears are off to their best six-game start since 2020 at 4-2. They've won three straight following back-to-back losses, while outscoring opponents 95-44. This team has also scored 35+ points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2013, and Williams became the first Bears rookie quarterback to throw four touchdowns in a game since Cade McNown in 1999.
Williams is actually off to one of the best starts for a No. 1 overall pick quarterback EVER. Through six starts, his four wins rank first, his 65% completion percentage ranks first and his nine passing touchdowns are tied for second. He's getting better and better, and that's something I've noticed for weeks now -- not just on Sunday.
We also can't ignore the defensive side of the ball. This Bears defense ranks in the top seven in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense. Sunday marked the 12th consecutive game where the Bears allowed 21 points or fewer. It's tied for the second-longest streak by any team over the last 15 seasons.
These are all facts, but here's another one: The Bears are currently third in the NFC North despite their 4-2 record. As we mentioned above, the NFC North (17-5, .773 win pct) has the best record by any division though Week 6 since the 1970 merger. Additionally, if we were power-ranking NFL teams, would the Bears come in behind all three of their rivals? The Minnesota Vikings are undefeated, and I'm not going to place the Bears above the Lions. Then, we can have a fun debate about the Packers.
There's another unfortunate truth when it comes to the Bears. Tankathon says they have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Out of their 11 remaining games, the only "easy opponents" may be the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. Chicago has still yet to play a division game!
So no, I don't see the Bears as a sleeper in the NFC right now. But that's OK. It would appear this franchise is on the right track, and has found its quarterback of the future.
