West Virginia’s inaugural campaign in the Big 12 begins with plenty of buzz: a regional cover of Sports Illustrated, top 15 national rankings and the conference’s preseason offensive player of the year in quarterback Geno Smith. Can the Mountaineers make good on the hype?
Best-case scenario: West Virginia’s offense easily passes and runs its way through Big 12 opponents, and the team’s new 3-4 defense is surprisingly stingy, forcing turnovers with regularity and setting up a short field for the offense. The Mountaineers steamroll through nonconference play and thump Baylor in their Big 12 debut. But eyebrows truly are raised when WVU travels to Texas and wins with ease, taking advantage of the Longhorns’ own offensive question marks to cruise to 5-0. Home games against Kansas State and TCU prove tougher, but a pair of fourth-quarter rallies only add to the hype around quarterback Geno Smith.
Oklahoma State booster T. Boone Pickens nearly has to buy a new scoreboard in Stillwater when OSU and WVU tangle, but the Mountaineers win to move to 9-0 and set up the game of the year in the conference: West Virginia vs. Oklahoma in Morgantown. Airplanes passing overhead can see the couch fires after WVU’s triple-overtime win, and Iowa State and Kansas prove to be no match for Dana Holgorsen’s offense. The Mountaineers move on to the BCS championship game, a chance for the program’s first national title, led by Smith, who wins the Heisman Trophy.
Worst-case scenario: The Mountaineers still have tons of offensive talent, but the new defense is a letdown. Big 12 opponents pick on freshman safety Karl Joseph early and often, and WVU allows just about as many points as it scores. Things really turn south, however, when Smith goes down with a season-ending injury at Texas, leaving the offense in the hands of sophomore quarterback Paul Millard.
Receivers Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey help Millard’s transition, but he is no Smith, and WVU loses at Texas before dropping four in a row late in the year to Kansas State, TCU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. West Virginia’s season ends ends at 7-5 and, as fate would have it, facing a Big East opponent in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl.
Most-likely scenario: The toughest schedule in school history proves to be quite difficult, but the Mountaineers have a puncher’s chance in every game thanks to their vaunted offense and a defense that uses new co-defensive coordinator (and former Oklahoma State safeties coach) Joe DeForest’s knowledge of the Big 12 to great effectiveness.
West Virginia starts 6-0, including a close win at Texas, to move the hype machine into overdrive. But Kansas State comes to Morgantown and frustrates WVU with its unique attack to bring the Mountaineers back down to earth. Nail-biters against TCU and at Oklahoma State both go West Virginia’s way, and the Oklahoma game still has considerable buzz. But the Sooners are too tough, essentially clinching the Big 12 title. A 10-2 record puts WVU on the cusp of making another BCS bowl, but a Cotton Bowl berth wouldn’t be a bad consolation prize in the team’s first Big 12 season.
For more up-to-the-minute news and analysis from Big 12 bloggers C.J. Moore and Patrick Southern, follow @CBSSportsBig12 on Twitter.