We already know one of the teams for the 2024 World Series after the New York Yankees clinched the AL pennant Saturday night. Who will join them, the Los Angeles Dodgers or New York Mets? We might find out Sunday. Of course, if the Mets win, the World Series matchup won't be known until the conclusion of a game played on Monday.
In the meantime, let's gamble a bit.
Mets at Dodgers, 8:08 p.m. ET
LHP Sean Manaea vs. bullpen game
Manaea closed the regular season with a 3.14 ERA and 87 strikeouts in his last 80 ⅓ innings. The Mets went 11-2 in those starts. In his first two playoff starts, he allowed only three runs on nine hits in 12 innings with 10 strikeouts. Last time out was Game 2 of this NLCS against the Dodgers and Manaea was a mixed bag. He struck out seven, but also walked four and allowed three runs (two earned) in five innings. He was outstanding through four innings, gave up a solo homer in the fifth and then walked two in the sixth before departing. Those runners came around to score after he left. Knowing that context, it wasn't nearly as bad an outing as it sounded, right?
The Dodgers are running with a bullpen game like they did in Game 2. They are not, however, in terrible shape here. Jack Flaherty and Brent Honeywell Jr. got all but one out in Game 5 and there was a day off Saturday. That means Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen haven't thrown since Thursday while Michael Kopech and Ryan Brasier haven't pitched since Wednesday. Daniel Hudson has had more rest and Banda only threw two pitches on Friday.
The play: Over 8.5 runs (-102)
The over has hit every game this series and in several cases it hasn't even been close. It's been hovering around 7.5 most games and the following are the totals, by game, in the series: 9, 10, 8, 12, 18. Sure, it's up to 8.5 now, but the series average is well above that.
Fun sidenote: The 2023 NLCS had 51 runs scored in seven games. This year we're at 57 through five. You have to go back to 2020 to find an NLCS with more runs scored and, again, we're only through five games here and the over has hit every single game.
Why would I stray now? The Dodgers' offense is relentless at this point and the Mets offense has been strong for a while -- not to mention that New York is facing a bullpen game. All the hitters have gotten very familiar with the pitchers and that's generally a formula for offense.
The question is, if we want to play a prop, which offensive player is the most likely to do damage?
The play: Mookie Betts over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125)
Shohei Ohtani would've been the play, but he's facing a lefty. Plus, Betts is on fire right now. If we just lopped off the first two games of the playoffs, he's 12 for 34 (.353) with three doubles, four homers, 11 RBI and nine runs in his last eight games. In Games 4 and 5, he went six for 10 with two doubles, two homers, five RBI and four runs.
