After just about two weeks of furious playoff action, we're set for the final four baseball teams vying for the World Series trophy. Game 1 of the NLCS starts Sunday with the New York Mets visiting the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mets are the six seed (third wild-card spot) on the National League side and won nine fewer games than the 98-win Dodgers. The Dodgers had the best record in baseball. Still, the gap isn't quite as big as that sounds. The Mets woke up in early June and went 65-38 between June 2 and the last day of the regular season. That was four games better than the Dodgers, the best record in baseball during that time and a 162-game pace of 102 wins.
Basically, both teams are awesome. Leave any David vs. Goliath-type narratives out of this one. These teams are both giants.
Now, onto the gambling plays..
Mets at Dodgers, 8:15 p.m. ET
RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Jack Flaherty
Senga was injured for nearly all of the 2024 season. He made just one start coming off an arm injury but then injured his calf in the sixth inning. He returned to take the ball for Game 1 of the NLDS. He coughed up a leadoff homer to Kyle Schwarber, but he's far from alone there. After that, he got six outs and didn't allow another hit. He walked one and struck out two. He threw 31 pitches, so don't expect a very deep outing here Sunday. The expectation is somewhere in the 45-50 pitch range. If he's efficient, he could get five innings in, but three or four would be more realistic if he's throwing well. Keep in mind, the Mets haven't played since Wednesday, so their bullpen is fully loaded.
Flaherty had a 3.17 ERA in 28 starts this year, 10 of which were with the Dodgers (3.58 ERA). He allowed four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings against the Padres in Game 2 of the NLDS, taking the loss. The Mets have not seen him this season. He had a 3.34 ERA in five regular-season starts in Dodger Stadium. Also, the Dodgers' bullpen has mostly been great so far this postseason and didn't get worked overly hard in Game 5. They've also had a day off now before Game 1 of the NLCS.
The play: Over 8 runs (-115)
The Mets' runs scored in the last nine games they've tried (I'm excluding Game 2 of the doubleheader because it didn't matter to them): 5, 8, 8, 3, 4, 6, 6, 7, 4. They have become masters of the crooked number, especially late in the game. I wouldn't trust Flaherty to hold them down, either.
The Dodgers' offense is loaded, too.
It's still hard to know what we'll see from Senga and the Mets' bullpen has shown some vulnerability.
I don't know if this will be a slugfest or if we'll need to ride just one side to get here, but I feel strongly about getting over this total.
The play: Francisco Lindor over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120)
Lindor hit the big blast in Game 1 of the doubleheader less than two weeks ago. In the playoffs so far, he's collected seven hits, six RBI and six runs in seven games, an average with this prop of 2.7 a game. He's the catalyst for this offense and if I think the Mets are going to do some scoring, he's most likely to be involved.
The play: Mookie Betts over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-120)
Betts went 4 for 12 with two homers, three RBI and three runs in the last three games of the NLDS and had a would-be third home run robbed by Jurickson Profar. I realize it doesn't officially count, but the point is he's swinging the bat well. I love him hitting behind Shohei Ohtani with Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernández following him for this prop, too. That provides lots of opportunity for RBI and/or runs.
