NFL preseason betting: Tips for betting on 2024 preseason games

NFL training camps are underway and preseason games are right around the corner. Betting on the NFL preseason differs from betting on regular season games and requires different strategies.

Sports bettors who love to bet on the NFL can soon start to whet their appetites by betting on the NFL preseason. The preseason gets underway with the Hall of Fame game on Thursday, Aug. 1, followed by a full schedule of Week 1 games beginning Aug. 8. 

The NFL preseason is the time when anticipation really starts building for the upcoming season. Fans can stop blindly speculating about what this year’s team will look like and they can start getting some real information about which players might be poised to break out, how new players will fit onto the rosters, and what new wrinkles the coaches are adding to their favorite team’s playbook. 

The preseason is also NFL fans’ first opportunity in months to place bets on real live NFL action. But betting on the NFL preseason is much different from betting on regular NFL season games and requires a different approach. In this article, we’ll cover what’s different in the NFL preseason and offer some tips and strategies for betting on NFL preseason games.

How the NFL preseason is different

There are a few important things to keep in mind about the NFL preseason when placing NFL preseason bets.

Rookies and backups get more playing time

In the NFL preseason, a team’s primary motivation is not to win the game but rather to evaluate the players on the roster, especially young players and backups who are not guaranteed to make the team. Coaches and personnel executives use preseason games to evaluate these players, which helps them to determine which players to keep on their final 53-man roster. It can also be those players’ only chance to get extended playing time (barring injuries during the season), so teams want to take advantage of that opportunity to give those players more experience.

As a result, the regular starters typically play very limited snaps, and oftentimes they do not play at all. This is especially true for older veterans and the highest-paid players, who typically do not require as much live-game experience as younger players and players who are battling for roster spots.

For most teams, the starting quarterback will rarely play more than one or two series in any of the preseason games. The exception could be if there is a battle for the starting QB job during training camp. 

Injury prevention is a primary concern

Coaches and players always take precautions to avoid injury, but in the preseason this becomes an especially high priority. The worst thing that can happen to any team is for an important player – or any player for that matter – to suffer a serious injury in a meaningless exhibition game. This is the main reason that regular starters play very little in the preseason, along with the aforementioned goal to give young players more experience and to evaluate players on the roster bubble. 

In the regular season, players will frequently play through a nagging injury or return to the game after suffering a minor injury in-game. In the preseason, most players with any type of injury will not see the field. The exception could be players battling for a roster spot who cannot afford to miss the opportunity to impress the coaches.

Teams disguise their playbooks, but may be more aggressive

Since teams do not care about winning preseason games (except for maybe the Baltimore Ravens, whose 24-game preseason win streak came to an end last year), they will typically only use a very small portion of their playbook. They do not want to allow their opponents to see their more advanced plays on film and give them an advantage when preparing for regular season games.

While this can lead to the majority of playcalling being very conservative, the opposite can still be true in certain situations. Since the outcome of the game doesn’t matter, coaches are usually more willing to go for it on fourth down in the preseason. They would prefer to give their players one more rep on offense rather than special teams. It also gives them a chance to see how well players can execute plays in those crucial situations.

NFL preseason betting tips

Given those key differences about the preseason, here are some important tips to keep in mind when betting on NFL preseason games.

Follow preseason news closely

The NFL preseason is one of the only times that NFL bettors have just as much information as NFL betting sites. Coaches typically do not announce who will be playing in the game until as late as the day before the game. NFL preseason betting odds are usually published before that information is available, so bettors who can react quickly to news about how much certain players are playing in the game could have an advantage until the sportsbooks are able to adjust the betting lines accordingly. 

Bet on backup QBs, especially veterans

Since backup quarterbacks play the majority of the snaps in the preseason, teams with strong depth at quarterback tend to perform better. Some teams have experienced veterans as their backup quarterback, while others have young quarterbacks they are developing. A former starting QB who is now a backup later in his career will be far more comfortable in a live-game situation than a young, inexperienced QB. That type of player can perform well in the preseason, especially against an opponent’s second- or third-string defense. 

Of course, young QBs can still thrive in the preseason, especially if they were drafted with a high pedigree but are stuck behind entrenched veteran starters. For example, the Atlanta Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Kirk Cousins is the Falcons’ veteran starter. Penix could see more playing time in the preseason than a highly drafted rookie QB might otherwise see, and given his draft pedigree he could be expected to perform well.

Prioritize strong depth charts

While quarterback depth often has the biggest impact on preseason games, the rest of the depth chart matters too. Don’t put too much value on how good a team’s starting lineup is. Focus instead on the strength of their second- and third-string players. Most NFL fans do not know much about NFL teams beyond the regular starters, so having a deep understanding of a team’s overall roster strength can give knowledegable bettors an advantage in the preseason.

For example, say a team has a strong starting offensive line, but the offensive line’s depth is questionable. That could make it very difficult for that team to move the ball when the second unit is in the game, especially if they are facing a team with good depth along its defensive line. In that case, betting on the under or betting against that team could be a good bet. 

Pay close attention to secondary depth as well. If a team with an experienced backup QB or good depth at wide receiver is facing a team with many young and inexperienced defensive backs, they are going to have a big advantage in the preseason. That could make betting the over or betting on that team a strong option. 

Adjust strategies from week to week

Teams will change their approach to how they manage preseason games for each of the three preseason games. 

When the preseason was four games, teams would typically ramp up the starters’ playing time in each of the first three games, with Week 3 being the closest thing to a regular season game. Starters would frequently play into the third quarter during Week 3, and Week 4 would be dedicated entirely to backup players.

With the current three-game schedule, most teams now treat Week 2 as the de facto “dress rehearsal” game, and they reserve Week 3 to be primarily about playing backups. Look at how coaches handled snap counts each week in recent seasons to get a good understanding of how they might change their approach from week to week.

Betting on a team more likely to give its starters more playing time can be a good strategy in the preseason.

Bet on underdogs to capitalize on volatility

For all the reasons discussed above, preseason games are notoriously volatile and unpredictable. Teams expected to be Super Bowl contenders could easily lose (perhaps convincingly) against teams expected to have high draft picks. 

As such, there is value in betting on underdogs in the preseason, either against the spread or on the moneyline. It just makes logical sense that given how unpredictable the preseason can be, betting on underdogs is the way to go, but data shows that this is especially true in games with short spreads.

Focus on first-half lines

Once again, being mindful of the volatility of the preseason is the key to winning NFL preseason bets. Another good way to do that is to bet on first-half lines, which are far more predictable. Crazy things can happen in the fourth quarter of preseason games, so betting on full-game lines can be extremely frustrating. 

Say you take the favorite at -4 and they are leading by three points with the ball late in the fourth quarter. They are in field goal range and facing a fourth-and-5. Normally this would be an automatic field-goal attempt during the regular season, which would put you in a great position to win your bet. However, because it’s the preseason, the coach decides he wants to see how the team handles a late-game fourth-down situation, and he decides to go for it.

That is a very normal situation in preseason games, and it’s one you want to avoid. Betting on first-half lines is the best way to do that.