Best anytime touchdown bets for Steelers vs. Raiders in Week 6

Discover which players are good values to score in Sunday’s matchup in Las Vegas

After an impressive 3-0 start, the Pittsburgh Steelers have dropped two games in a row and are looking to bounce back this week when they visit the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3).

Pittsburgh is a 3-point favorite against the spread while the over/under is set at a measly 36.5 points. That is the second-lowest over/under total on the Week 6 slate and one of the lowest so far this season.

The Raiders are making a switch from veteran QB Gardner Minshew to second-year signal caller Aidan O’Connell for this game, trying to give the team a spark. The Steelers could potentially soon be making a change under center, as Russell Wilson will be active on Sunday for the first time in the 2024 season.

The picks discussed below already include the best betting odds currently available after comparing odds at all of the best online sportsbooks.  

Najee Harris (+125, FanDuel)

When Fields is not taking it himself, Harris is by far the Steelers’ most preferred red zone weapon. He has 14 touches (carries + targets) in the red zone so far this season, while no other Steeler (besides Fields) has more than six. Harris is getting more red zone touches per game (2.6) so far this season than he has in any of his previous seasons, but he has yet to find paydirt this season. In each of his first three seasons, he has converted at least 17.9% of his red zone touches into touchdowns, but even if he punches it in on his first red zone touch of this game, his conversion rate will only be 6.7%. In other words, he is due for some statistical regression to the average. 

Harris also should have at least a few red zone opportunities in this game, even with such a low expected points total. The Raiders’ defense can be exploited on the ground. They are just 25th in yards per carry allowed. They are also in the bottom six in both DVOA and EPA per play against the run, and they are 21st in red zone defense. Their five touchdowns allowed to running backs this season also ranks (tied for) 10th in the league. With prized free agent Christian Wilkins sidelined for this game, that run defense could be even more exploitable.

It isn’t always recommended to bet on the player with the lowest TD scorer odds in a given matchup, especially when that player has zero touchdowns on the season. But in a low-scoring game where TD opportunities could be at a premium, betting on the most likely TD scorer is a better approach.

Brock Bowers (+285, Caesars)

For similar reasons as the Harris pick, it was tempting to go with the Raiders’ most likely TD scorer in Alexander Mattison (+155 at BetMGM). The problem there is that the Steelers have been dominant defensively against the run. They are fifth in run defense (91.2 yards per game), third in yards per carry allowed (3.7), and top five in DVOA, EPA, and success rate against the run. They are also third in red zone defense and have allowed just one rushing touchdown all season. 

Instead, look to the Raiders’ most productive offensive player this season. Brock Bowers is coming off the best game of his excellent rookie season so far – eight catches for 97 yards and his first career touchdown. He is now leading the team in targets (36), receptions (28), and receiving yards (313) and is also leading all tight ends in those categories. Bowers is averaging more yards and receptions per game so far this season than Sam LaPorta had in his incredible 2023 rookie season. 

Bowers also could demand even more attention from QB Aidan O’Connell this week than he already has this season. Not only is Davante Adams expected to miss his third straight game, but Jakobi Meyers (tied with Bowers for the team lead in targets) is also not expected to play with an ankle injury. With both starting wide receivers out, Bowers is expected to be a focal point of the Raiders’ offense. Of course, he will also get extra attention from the Steelers defense, but that unit is just middle of the road in terms of defending tight ends this season, and they’ve already two touchdowns to the position. 

With +285 odds at Caesars Sportsbook, Bowers is the best bet on the Raiders to score a touchdown this week. 

Tre Tucker (+360, FanDuel)

Speaking of those injured Raiders receivers, that’s also creating more opportunities for speedster Tre Tucker, who is an intriguing longshot to find the endzone this week. Tucker has emerged as the Raiders’ No. 3 receiver this season and is second on the team with two touchdowns. The Raiders seem to be looking for more ways to get the ball in Tucker’s hands, as evidenced by his three carries in the last two games, one of which went for a score.

Tucker could benefit from the Raiders’ switch from Minshew to O’Connell under center. O’Connell has a stronger arm and is less mobile than Minshew, which means he may be more likely to stick in the pocket long enough to find Tucker on a deep bomb than Minshew would have been. Tucker had three catches of 40+ yards in limited action last season, and two of those catches came on deep balls from O’Connell. Tucker also caught both of his touchdowns last season from O’Connell.

With limited compelling options for TD scorer bets in a game with such a low over/under, Tucker stands out as a solid value at FanDuel and an upside play.