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Best bet and preview for Michigan vs. Illinois on Saturday

The No. 24 Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini at Illinois.

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema on the sidelines during the first half at Memorial Stadium.
USATSI

The No. 24 Michigan Wolverines at No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini could be viewed as the afterthought of the trio of matchups between ranked teams this week, compared to No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Georgia and No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 11 Tennessee. But it is a marquee event between these traditional Big Ten rivals, though Michigan and Illinois have not met as ranked teams since 2001.

The Fighting Illini boosting themselves by beating Michigan would be even more historic. Illinois has only beaten Michigan once in Champaign since 1983.

The Wolverines have won six straight over Illinois, which includes scores of 45-0 and 41-8, but Michigan barely squeaked past the Illini in their last matchup, a 19-17 win in 2022 in Ann Arbor. That Michigan team won the Big Ten and went to the College Football Playoff. This Michigan team isn’t nearly as good.

The Wolverines (4-2) got pounded by Texas and outplayed by Washington with uncompelling wins over Fresno State, Arkansas State and Minnesota mixed in. A thrilling 27-24 victory over USC is the highlight of Michigan’s season.

Illinois (5-1) was looking much better until beating lowly Purdue just 50-49 in overtime last week. Still, Illinois beat Nebraska and held its own in a 21-7 loss at Penn State.

Michigan is favored by 3.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook and several other betting sites, though the line is currently -4 at some books. The over/under is 44.5 across the board at all the top sportsbooks

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Why bet on Michigan

Coming off a bye, Michigan could be significantly improved at quarterback. Jack Tuttle, who is in his eighth season of college football, stepped in for the embattled Alex Orji against Washington and didn’t look like a liability. That’s a major step up for the Wolverines. With Tuttle getting more time to shake off a preseason injury and fully prepare for the job, Michigan might actually be able to move the ball, which they were generally unable to do for much of the Washington game. Personnel changes on the offensive line over the bye could also help the offense become more functional.

Michigan’s defense has looked phenomenal at times, though rarely on third downs. The Wolverines could be a few small breaks from looking way better on this side of the ball. With defensive end Josiah Stewart (5 sacks) plus a pair of projected top-10 picks in next year’s draft in defensive tackle Mason Graham and cornerback Will Johnson, Michigan still has championship-level defensive talent, though they have not played that way

Why bet on Illinois

Illinois has mostly been better than Michigan this season and is at home. The Illini’s case starts that simply.

Illinois’ defense looked far more stout until allowing 49 to Purdue last week. Perhaps, the Illini just got bit by a backup dual-threat quarterback they didn’t prepare for in Ryan Browne. Or maybe they were looking ahead. Either would bode well against Michigan.

Illinois’ defense – aggressive underneath – is a good fit against a Michigan team that has shown no ability to stretch the field vertically.

Luke Altmyer has developed into one of the Big Ten’s better quarterbacks, and Pat Bryant leads a deep receiving corps. Illinois is averaging 31 points per game, a number that the Wolverines have yet to hit this season. 

Best bet for Michigan vs. Illinois – Illinois +4 (+110, DraftKings)

Illinois has not lost at home. Michigan has not won on the road. The Illini score 7.5 points per game more than Michigan does and are allowing 2.3 fewer points per game on defense. From a points-per-game basis, this is an Illinois offense in the top five of the Big 10, facing a Michigan defense allowing more points per game, than every team in the conference outside also-rans Maryland, UCLA and Purdie, who also happen to be the three winless teams in the Big 10. 

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Michigan winning would require the Wolverines playing better than they have this season. This is possible, but it’s always disconcerting betting on that type of breakthrough. It makes more sense to take the points from an underdog that could easily win outright.