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Best bet, odds, preview and predictions for Steelers vs. Raiders in Week 6
See how oddsmakers are handicapping this AFC tilt
| WHO | Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|
| WHEN | Sunday, October 13, 2024 at 4:05 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Allegiant Stadium | Las Vegas, Nevada |
| HOW | CBS |
The favored Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) will try to avoid a three-game losing streak when they visit the Las Vegas Raiders (2-3), who are coming off a demoralizing 34-18 defeat at Denver. In Week 5, Pittsburgh hosted a Sunday night contest that drifted into Monday morning due to a weather delay and ended with the Dallas Cowboys getting a deciding fourth-down touchdown in the final minute to win 20-17.
The Raiders are in a state of uncertainty. Star receiver Davante Adams is the subject of trade rumors while questions are abound regarding who will be under center. Gardner Minshew threw two interceptions and was benched in favor of Aidan O’Connell during the team’s loss to the Broncos. Head coach Antonio Pierce said he doesn’t know who the starter will be versus Pittsburgh. In its previous two home games this season, Las Vegas was embarrassed by the then-winless Carolina Panthers in Week 3 before defeating the Cleveland Browns seven days later.
The Steelers began the year with three straight wins, defeating the Atlanta Falcons, Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers behind the strength of a tremendous defense that limited the opposition to 26 points and a ball-control offense led by quarterback Justin Fields. But those efficiencies went away in a loss to the Indianapolis Colts, and a lack of third-down execution plus a secondary which allowed too many open receivers – especially late – burned the team against Dallas. Now that the injured Russell Wilson is off the injury report, it’s unknown how much longer Fields will have the starting job.
Here are some of the most recent odds that you can find at some of the top U.S. sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers spread | -3 (-118) | -3 (-115) | -3 (-115) |
| Raiders spread | +3 (+104) | -3 (+105) | +3 (-105) |
| Steelers moneyline | -174 | -170 | -165 |
| Raiders moneyline | +148 | +142 | +140 |
| Over | Over 36.5 (-105) | Over 36.5 (-108) | Over 36.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 36.5 (-115) | Under 36.5 (-112) | Under 36.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Steelers
Pittsburgh’s strong run defense meets Las Vegas’ weak rushing attack. The Steelers have held opponents to 91.2 yards per game on the ground, ranking fourth in the NFL. The Raiders have averaged 84 yards, the third-worst rate. If Las Vegas is to prevail in this matchup, it can’t happen via the passing game alone – and even that will be difficult to do.
Aidan O’Connell is likely to be tested by T.J. Watt and the rest of the excellent Pittsburgh front seven all afternoon. Watt is coming off a strong performance against Dallas in which he recorded 1.5 sacks and had multiple quarterback pressures. The Raiders are tied for the fourth-most sacks allowed this season with 17.
Pittsburgh has forced eight turnovers and committed four this season. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has an NFL-low two takeaways and has given away the ball a league-high nine times.
The Raiders’ defense has allowed an average of 26.2 points and 131.8 yards on the ground – both ranking toward the bottom of the league. Cordarrelle Patterson’s injury limited the Steelers’ ability to run last Sunday, and they finished with fewer than 100 yards on the ground. Jaylen Warren (knee) is unlikely to return for this game, leaving Najee Harris with the ground attack almost solely on his shoulders.
If Fields remains under center, there’s no reason to believe he can’t get the job done. In the loss at Indianapolis, Fields threw for 312 yards, ran for 55 and accounted for three touchdowns. Against the Cowboys, his yardage was down and he failed to connect often with top target George Pickens, but he had the Steelers in a position to pull out a victory.
Pittsburgh might be on the road this week, but it will have the closest thing to a home-field advantage. Steelers fans travel, regardless of the location of the game, and that will be especially evident in Las Vegas. Allegiant Stadium gets its fair share of opposing fans, and it’s somewhat noticeable. It will be very noticeable in this contest.
Confidence in the Steelers may be waning, and it’s definitely down from where it was two weeks ago. But the disorder surrounding the Raiders is a clear red flag when it comes to feeling confident about their chances, making betting on Pittsburgh more conceivable.
Why bet on the Raiders
Call it the “why not?” or “nothing to lose” factor.
Granted, neither Minshew nor O’Connell gave any reason to believe the Raiders can move the ball through the air. But both have shown glimpses of having a big passing performance. Minshew did so against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2, bringing Las Vegas back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to post one of the year’s most unlikely wins. O’Connell made his NFL debut a year ago and was 24-of-39 for 238 yards versus the Chargers.
As of late Tuesday, Adams was expected to play as he may be inclined to increase his trade value. However, he also is dealing with a hamstring injury and reports on Wednesday stated he was doubtful to be on the field against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers have begun to show some cracks, most noticeably in the secondary. They allowed Dallas to march 70 yards on 15 plays over 4:36 for the winning score. In addition to prolonging drives with a poor third-down defense, there were numerous opportunities to put away the Cowboys. They forced three turnovers by Dak Prescott and the special-teams unit blocked a field goal.
The lack of targets for Pickens is concerning. Should that continue, Pittsburgh will have difficulty producing points. If Wilson is the starter on Sunday, it won’t be alarming if he needs time to shake off the rust.
Even if the Raiders don’t pull out the victory, the trends indicate that scoring will be difficult – increasing the chances that the game will be decided by a small margin.
Best bet for Steelers vs. Raiders: Under 36.5 total points (-110, BetMGM)
It’s tempting to take the Steelers at -3 and potentially risk a push with a field-goal difference. However, this line opened at a point in Pittsburgh’s favor and the unknowns concerning Las Vegas could increase this point spread even more.
This game screams low-scoring affair. Las Vegas’ defense has its problems stopping the run, so expect Pittsburgh to exploit that. In turn, it should shorten the game and limit scoring opportunities.
Rather than going with the Steelers on the money line at -154 on FanDuel Sportsbook or going for Pittsburgh against the spread at -102, it makes sense to try a different approach. Taking the Raiders at +3 would almost require them to win outright, which doesn’t feel like a great bet either.
Taking all those factors into account, let’s root for defense – or rather, a lack of offense. Both teams have unknowns at quarterback, which could result in disjointed game plans. This 36.5-point total at BetMGM is very low for an NFL game. But the idea of a 20-16 or 21-14 final score is not out of the realm of possibility, by any means.