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Best bets and game preview for Packers vs. Texans

The Green Bay Packers welcome the Houston Texans to Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon

By Brad Rowland & R.J. White Oct 18, 2024 at 8:58 am ET 4 min read
Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) and Dontayvion Wicks (13) celebrate a touchdown reception against the Minnesota Vikings during their football game
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Week 7 of the NFL season features a jam-packed Sunday slate featuring 12 games. The action begins in London and concludes with the traditional Sunday evening matchup. In between, one of the headline games of the day pits the Houston Texans and the Green Bay Packers. Lambeau Field hosts the matchup, with the two teams meeting for the first time since the 2020 season.

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The Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 5-1 record, with the one loss coming on the road to Minnesota. Houston, led by standout quarterback C.J. Stroud, is on a three-game winning streak, including a comfortable 41-21 road win over the New England Patriots in Week 6. On the other side, Green Bay is 4-2 after six weeks. The Packers have won two straight games, with quarterback Jordan Love back from injury and producing at a high level. 

Why to back the Texans

Houston enters this matchup in a strong spot, as the Texans are 9-5-1 against the spread in their last 15 games as a road underdog. Houston might also have the best player on the field in Stroud, who is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 33 touchdown passes and only nine interceptions in the first 21 games of his NFL career. Stroud, who was named Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, has averaged 289.3 passing yards per game during Houston’s three-game winning run with six touchdown passes in that span. 

Keyed by Stroud, the Texans lead the NFL in red zone efficiency, converting 75% of their trips into touchdowns through six weeks. Houston also boasts strong defensive metrics in key categories. The Texans lead the NFL in completion rate allowed (53.3%), with a top-three mark in total defense, yielding 277.0 total yards per game.

Opponents are averaging only 4.8 yards per play against Houston this season, and the Texans are in the top five of the league in first downs allowed (98), passing yards allowed (979), and sacks (19). Will Anderson Jr., the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, leads the league with nine tackles for loss. The former Alabama star is also in the top five of the NFL with 5.5 sacks this season.

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Why to back the Packers

The Packers are comfortable operating at Lambeau Field, as evidenced by a 7-4 mark against the spread in their last 11 home games. Green Bay also has started the season strong on both sides of the ball, especially with Jordan Love under center. The Packers are averaging 6.2 yards per play on offense, ranking in the top five of the NFL for the season, and Love leads the league with an 8.2% touchdown rate. He has been sacked only four times in 2024, and Green Bay’s receiving corps is both deep and talented.

Six players have touchdown receptions already for the Packers, and second-year standout Jayden Reed is on pace for 1,252 receiving yards, 312 rushing yards, and 11 touchdowns in 2024. From a matchup perspective, Green Bay is also facing a Houston defense that is in the bottom tier of the league in red zone efficiency allowed, with opponents scoring a touchdown on 68.8% of trips inside the 20-yard line. 

On the defensive side, Green Bay leads the NFL with 17 takeaways, creating havoc and forcing opponents into perilous situations. The Packers are also in the top ten of the league in points allowed (20.2 per game) and EPA allowed per play, and Houston has efficiency issues on offense. The Texans are in the bottom third of the league with a 40.1% offensive success rate in 2024, and Houston has the second-worst rushing success rate (31.3%) in the NFL.

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Best bet for Texans vs. Packers: Green Bay -2.5 (-120, FanDuel)

While the Texans have the superior record to begin the season, this online betting spot favors the Packers. Green Bay’s underlying metrics are strong right now, and the home-field advantage at Lambeau Field outpaces some other venues in the NFL. Beyond that, Green Bay is a different, more dynamic team with Love at the helm, and the Packers can hold serve at home. At present, the best available number in the market can be found at FanDuel Sportsbook.