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Best bets and preview for Patriots vs. Jaguars Week 7 in London
Could Drake Maye get his first career win this week?
| WHO | New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 9:30 a.m. EST |
| WHERE | Wembley Stadium | London, United Kingdom |
| HOW | NFL Network |
The NFL’s International Series continues this week with a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Jacksonville Jaguars at London’s Wembley Stadium. This will be the Jaguars’ 13th international game since 2013, more than double the number of abroad games of any other team (the Miami Dolphins have six).
The Jaguars have spent the week in London after playing the Bears in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium last week. Chicago trounced them 35-16 as quarterback Caleb Williams had the best game of his rookie season, tossing four touchdowns and completing 79% of his passes.
The Jaguars’ defense will face another rookie quarterback this week when New England’s Drake Maye makes his second career start. Maye had his share of ups and downs in his NFL debut last week against the Texans, tossing three touchdowns but also yielding three turnovers. Maye’s ability to improve on that performance in a more favorable matchup will be a big storyline to watch.
The table below shows the current betting odds for this Patriots vs. Jaguars matchup at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article and will be updated daily leading up to kickoff.
| FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots spread | +5.5 (-110) | +5.5 (-108) | +5.5 (-110) |
| Jaguars spread | -5.5 (-110) | -5.5 (-112) | -5.5 (-110) |
| Patriots moneyline | +190 | +195 | +205 |
| Jaguars moneyline | -230 | -238 | -250 |
| Over | Over 42.5 (-110) | Over 42.5 (-112) | Over 42.5 (-115) |
| Under | Under 42.5 (-110) | Under 42.5 (-108) | Under 42.5 (-105) |
Why to bet on the Patriots
The Jaguars’ biggest advantage is that they have spent the last week in London after playing there last week, so they do not have to deal with traveling internationally and adjusting to a new environment. That gives them some level of home-field advantage. They also have a more experienced quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, compared to Patriots rookie Drake Maye.
The advantages mostly end there. Both of these teams have struggled mightily on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are 27th in DVOA and 28th in net EPA while the Patriots are 29th and 31st, respectively, in the same metrics. Offensively, Jacksonville is 20th in DVOA and 21st in EPA, and the Patriots are 30th in both categories. Defensively, Jacksonville is 32nd in both DVOA and EPA, while New England is 29th in DVOA and 24th in EPA.
In other words, Jacksonville is slightly better on offense, New England is slightly better on defense and both teams overall are among the worst in the league on both sides. So in a matchup of two bad teams, why are the Jaguars such heavy favorites at -5.5 against the spread? The travel factor and the more experienced quarterback are relevant factors, but are those advantages worth 5.5 points?
The Patriots also could be on the upswing now that Maye is under center. Maye will have his fair share of struggles, but he offers significantly more upside than Jacoby Brissett did in this offense. Maye faced a tough Texans defense in his first career start and still managed to throw three touchdowns. Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked scoring defense should be an easier task. If he outperforms expectations, the Patriots have a chance to win this game outright, let alone cover the spread.
Why to bet on the Jaguars
On paper, the Jaguars should be a much more talented team than the Patriots. The season-to-date metrics belie the overall talent disparity between these teams, which could be another reason the Jaguars are relatively heavy favorites in this game. If the Jaguars can play up to their potential, then they can win this game by a touchdown or more.
Before the season began, the betting line on the Jaguars’ win total was 8.5 at BetMGM Sportsbook. It’s still at 6.5 (with +140 juice on the over) despite their 1-5 record, which means the BetMGM oddsmakers think it’s realistic for them to go 6-5 the rest of the season and finish with seven wins. By comparison, the Patriots’ preseason wins line was the second-lowest in the league at 5.5, and it’s now 4.5.
The point is, that the Jaguars are still generally considered the much stronger team because of their superior talent. Rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has looked like a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver, while veteran Christian Kirk remains one of the more productive slot receivers in the league. Tight end Evan Engram just returned from a four-game absence with a hamstring injury and had a monster game with 10 catches for 102 yards. He looked like the same player who was 4th in the league with 114 receptions last season. Along with a stable of talented running backs like Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby, the Jaguars have the weapons to run a high-powered offense.
It’s irresponsible just to ignore the recent performance, which indicates that these teams are evenly matched. But it’s also impossible to ignore that the Jaguars are simply the more talented team that should win and cover easily if they play more like they did last season. They finished the 2023 season with the 13th-ranked offense in both points and yards
Best bet for Patriots vs. Jaguars: Patriots +5.5 (-110, FanDuel)
It’s too hard to trust this Jaguars right now. They looked utterly lifeless last week against Chicago, and there’s no reason to expect that to change. On the other hand, Maye’s debut seems to have given the Patriots new life. The offense looked better last week than it has all season, despite a tough matchup with Houston and a losing outcome.
Maye should fare much better against the Jaguars’ porous defense, which is dead last in both DVOA and EPA against the pass. Jacksonville is also allowing the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing QBs this season (28.3 per game), which is another area that Maye can exploit. The 2024 No. 3 overall draft pick rushed five times for 38 yards in his debut last week.
The Patriots have a real chance to win this game outright, so taking their juicy +205 moneyline odds at Caesars could be an intriguing bet. But that’s a bit too risky to make it the best bet in this game. Instead, the much safer bet that is still a solid value is simply taking the points.