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Best bets and preview for No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Texas
Can the top-ranked Longhorns avoid an upset in this SEC clash of top-5 powerhouses?
| WHO | No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 1 Texas Longhorns |
| WHEN | Saturday, October 19, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET |
| WHERE | Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, Texas |
| HOW | ABC |
For the third time in four weeks, two teams ranked inside the top five of the AP college football rankings will square off in an epic matchup with major playoff implications. After a dominant 34-3 victory over Oklahoma last week, No. 1 Texas (6-0, 2-0 SEC) will look to maintain its top ranking and undefeated record when it hosts No. 5 Georgia (5-1, 3-1) on Saturday evening.
Quinn Ewers returned to the Longhorns last week after missing two games with an oblique injury. Ewers looked rusty at times against the Sooners, throwing an interception on the first drive and making some errant throws later in the game, but it didn’t matter much. The Longhorns ran the ball effectively with Tre Wisner and the defense dominated.
Ewers will face a much tougher test this week against Georgia, even if the Bulldogs have struggled at times this season. They have failed to cover the spread in their past five games, including a 10-point win last week over Mississippi State when they were heavy 33-point favorites. Still, Georgia is an experienced and well-coached team that already has a win against a top-5 opponent under its belt. The Bulldogs will surely be the most difficult opponent that Texas has faced this season.
Here are the current betting odds for Georgia vs. Texas at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article and will be updated daily throughout the week.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia spread | +4.5 (-104) | +5 (-110) | +4.5 (-105) |
| Texas spread | -4.5 (-118) | -5 (-110) | -4.5 (-115) |
| Georgia moneyline | +172 | +170 | +175 |
| Texas moneyline | -210 | -205 | -210 |
| Over | Over 56.5 (-105) | Over 57 (-112) | Over 56.5 (-110) |
| Under | Under 56.5 (-115) | Under 57 (-108) | Under 56.5 (-110) |
Why bet on the Georgia Bulldogs
The reasons to like Georgia in this matchup have more to do with reputation than results. The offense has been inconsistent and the defense has struggled at times, but Kirby Smart’s team is a talented, battle-tested group that is capable of beating any team in the country when it plays its best. Carson Beck is one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, which he showed in leading a second-half comeback against Alabama a few weeks ago. He is also coming off his best game of the season last week against Mississippi State, when he threw for 459 yards and three touchdowns.
Georgia’s defense has not been the dominant force this season that it had been in recent years, but it is also a young defense and it’s reasonable to expect them to get better as the season moves along. Either way, Georgia’s defense will still be the best unit that Texas has faced this season, and it’s fair to wonder just how good the Texas offense can be against this level of competition. The same can be said for the Texas defense, which has put up some staggering numbers but has not faced any offenses nearly as dangerous as Georgia’s can be.
Texas has looked better than Georgia so far this season, but that doesn’t mean the Bulldogs cannot pull off the upset this week, or at least cover the spread. Crazier things have happened.
Why bet on the Texas Longhorns
There may be questions about the competition Texas has faced so far, but there is no question that the Longhorns have looked like a juggernaut this season. Their defense is holding opponents to a ridiculous 6.4 points per game and just 229.7 total yards of offense. Both of those marks lead the country by a significant margin. Whenever a team faces weaker competition like Texas has faced, it’s generally a sign of a great team that they look dominant in those games, and those are simply dominant numbers.
That overwhelming defense will be the key for Texas in this game, as the offense should be able to find holes against a struggling Georgia defense. The Bulldogs just allowed 31 points to Mississippi State last week, and freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. torched them for a season-high 306 passing yards and three touchdowns. Overall, Georgia’s defense ranks 59th nationally in EPA against the pass, while Texas’ offense ranks sixth in passing EPA.
If the defense can slow down Beck, Texas should have a good chance to cover the spread in this game. That matchup works out in the Longhorns’ favor. While their defense is strong across the board, it is better against the pass (third in EPA) than it is against the run (14th). Not only does Texas have two excellent cornerbacks in Jahdae Barron and Malik Muhammad, but it also has a fierce pass rush. Texas is averaging three sacks per game and has the fourth-best pass-rushing grade at Pro Football Focus. When Beck struggled in the first half against Alabama, dealing with pressure was a big part of the problem, and that could be another issue against Texas.
Texas needs to prove that both its offense and defense can hold up against tougher competition, but there are plenty of good reasons to think that it will.
Best bet for Georgia vs. Texas: Texas -4.5 (-115, bet365)
Everyone wants to see another college football classic in this game, just like the two recent top five matchups that CFB fans have enjoyed. Unfortunately, there is a real potential that this game could go more like the first half of Alabama vs. Georgia, but without Georgia’s furious second-half comeback. That doesn’t mean that Texas is going to dominate from start to finish in a double-digit win, but it does mean that Texas should be a bigger favorite than the current point spread of -4.5 at bet365.
Typically, home-field advantage accounts for two or three points against the spread in college football betting, which means that the current spread in this game is hardly giving any edge to Texas beyond its home-field advantage. Based on what we have seen from both teams so far this season, Texas should be at least a 2- or 3-point favorite on a neutral field, and closer to -5 favorites when playing at home. That means there is value on laying the points in this game.
This is simply a bad matchup for Georgia. The Bulldogs have struggled to run the ball this season, averaging just 4.6 yards per carry and ranking 43rd in rushing offense EPA. Coupled with the fact that the defense could struggle to slow down Texas, Georgia could be forced to become one-dimensional on offense. That will only make it even more favorable for Texas to unleash its pass rush while also presenting Georgia with the toughest pass defense it has faced this season. That scenario strongly favors the Longhorns.
Prediction: Texas 31, Georgia 24