This column seems like a strange place to find unranked/barely ranked teams as favorites facing top-10 opponents.
Yet, that’s where we begin our list of college football betting favorites who could lose outright in Week 6:
No. 9 Missouri (+1.5, FanDuel) vs. No. 25 Texas A&M
Missouri is 4-0, but with clunky wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt. Yet, the Tigers can win this week for the same reason they were ranked so high to start the season: They’ve shown they can hit a higher gear when necessary. Missouri’s offense can be too passive, just taking what the defense allows and trying to establish balance. But Missouri can force feed star wide receiver Luther Burden III and usually come out ahead. Similarly, Missouri’s defense has tightened when necessary.
Texas A&M, which is tied with UNLV for No. 25 in the AP Poll, once again faces a quarterback controversy. Original starter Conner Weigman is called a game-time decision, and backup Marcel Reed is 3-0 and has looked like a better fit for the offense. Making the right call to maximize talent and chemistry will be tricky. Even when looking their best, the Aggies haven’t shown to be above Missouri’s level.
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Texas A&M is a -1.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, but this line doesn’t make much sense based on only this season. It makes even less sense when considering what Missouri has shown in a greater body of work dating back to last season.
No. 10 Michigan (+3, BetMGM) vs. Washington
Washington has been better overall than its 3-2 record, with losses to Washington State and Rutgers. But the Huskies have had too many key downs go awry. The purple-colored-glasses view: Washington has gotten its bad breaks at the worst times and, should its poor luck even out, is an excellent team. More realistic view: Washington is good but, in Jedd Fisch’s first season with a lineup full of transfers, doesn’t quite have everyone on the same page, and that shows in high-leverage moments.
In a game that could get mucked up, Michigan provides value as 3-point road underdogs from BetMGM.
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Michigan cannot pass and is traveling for the first time all season. But the Wolverines’ defense is phenomenal and a good stylistic fit against Fisch’s offense. Running back Kaleel Mullings can duplicate the ground-and-pound game plan Rutgers used to beat Washington.
Kansas (+3, Caesars) vs. Arizona State
Kansas is 1-4, but that’s mostly because the Jayhawks have faced four teams – Illinois, UNLV, West Virginia, and TCU – that are all better than Arizona State.
Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels must get his turnovers under control (eight interceptions), but he still has the arm strength and rushing ability to captain a quality offense. Though Kansas’ defense has underwhelmed, Arizona State’s fledgling offense under Kenny Dillingham might not be ready to take advantage.
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Kansas can still get on track this season, and it might start with an upset win as 3-point underdogs at Caesars Sportsbook against Arizona State.
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State (-4.5, DraftKings)
Kansas State just exposed Oklahoma State’s porous run defense. Enter West Virginia with quarterback Garrett Greene and running backs C.J. Donaldson and Jahiem White. The Mountaineers could have a field day, even as +4.5-point road underdogs at DraftKings.
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West Virginia’s defense has plenty of vulnerabilities, too. But will Oklahoma State’s offense be efficient enough to take advantage? The Cowboys have not established a quality rushing offense with Ollie Gordon – a major disappointment.
Texas Tech (+6, Fanatics Sportsbook) vs. Arizona
There’s not as much difference between these teams as some advanced numbers show. Arizona beating Utah last week was not nearly as impressive with Utah quarterback Cameron Rising out. Texas Tech really missed star running back Tahj Brooks in its loss to Washington State.
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This game should be a shootout. Both teams are farbetter offensively than defensively. It could go either way, but taking Texas Tech plus the six points at Fanatics Sportsbook could be the way to go.
