Comparing Week 4 NFL betting lines to pre-Week 3 look-ahead lines

The Dallas Cowboys are among the teams that oddsmakers appear to have soured on, while the undefeated Steelers are soaring

Betting on the NFL boils down to a few simple practices that are often difficult to follow. One of those rules is that bettors must know when a reaction is justified and resist the urge to overreact based on what they saw in their most recent exposure to a team or player. It’s human nature to value the most recent sample size most heavily, but it’s often not smart. 

Through three weeks of the NFL season, we’ve seen our perception of teams change rapidly. The Carolina Panthers went from “one of the worst teams ever” to “competitive” in a week. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers went from a dark horse Super Bowl contender to getting blown out by Denver on their own home field. The same logic applies to dozens of teams. 

Each week, U.S. sportsbooks post lookahead lines for the slate of games happening the following weekend. Simply, users could have bet on Week 4 before Week 3 even happened. Now, the lines have been adjusted based on what we saw unfold in Week 3. 

Which Week 4 NFL betting odds have seen the largest shift over the past week or so?

All betting lines mentioned come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dallas Cowboys (1-2) vs. New York Giants (1-2)

Week 1 saw the Dallas Cowboys deliver a thumping to the Cleveland Browns, but the last two weeks have seen the Cowboys on the other side of that thumping, losing 44-19 to the New Orleans Saints and having their comeback against the Baltimore Ravens fall short in a 28-25 defeat. While the Week 3 final score might not look too bad, Baltimore was up 28-6 entering the fourth quarter before Dallas scored 19 straight points before their desperate comeback came up short.

After the Giants’ 28-6 loss to Minnesota in Week 1, it looked like Big Blue were in for a painfully long season. However, it appears Minnesota might actually be good and since that game, the Giants have performed admirably. They didn’t give up a touchdown in a 21-18 loss to Washington, then beat the Cleveland Browns 21-15 in Week 3. 

At this time last week, the look-ahead line had the Cowboys as 7-point favorites on the road against the New York Giants. However, after another week of Dallas performing below expectations and the Giants looking at least competitive, the line has moved in favor of the home team. Currently, New York is a 5.5-point home underdog on Thursday night at FanDuel.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (1-2)

The Cincinnati Bengals have yet to win a game this season, but they have lost twice outright as a favorite of at least seven points. The latest example came Monday night when the Bengals fell to the Commanders 38-33 in front of their home crowd. The perplexing part of all of this is that in between their two embarrassing losses, Cincinnati played a solid game and almost knocked off the two-time defending Super Bowl champions, the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs. 

On the other side, the Carolina Panthers moved away from struggling quarterback Bryce Young and saw immediate results as Andy Dalton threw for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 36-22 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 3. Was this a one-game bump or is this a sign of things to come? That’s the decision bettors will need to make regarding the Panthers. 

Prior to the Week 3 kickoffs,  oddsmakers had Cincinnati listed as a 7-point road favorite, with the total set at 43 points. However, in Week 3, we saw Cincinnati’s defense could be an issue. We also saw the Carolina offense might have some bite with Andy Dalton under center. As a result, the total at FanDuel has been bumped up to 48.5 points. 

The spread for the game went from favoring Cincinnati by a full touchdown to the Bengals being just 4.5-point favorites. This is likely a combination of a downgrade of Cincinnati after their loss to Washington, and an upgrade of Carolina after its win over the Raiders. 

Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

The Pittsburgh Steelers somehow continue to surpass expectations under coach Mike Tomlin. Nobody expected much from Pittsburgh entering the season, but the Steelers are 3-0 three weeks into their 2024 campaign. All of this has been accomplished with Justin Fields, who was expected to begin the season as the backup quarterback to Russell Wilson. 

The Colts haven’t been bad by any means, losing two games by a combined 8 points. However, Anthony Richardson continues to show that he’s likely going to be a long-term project. His inconsistency is maddening and is a sign of a young quarterback learning on the fly. 

Originally, oddsmakers had Indianapolis pegged as a small home favorite in this spot, laying a point. However, after Pittsburgh’s impressive win over the LA Chargers and its impressive 3-0 start, oddsmakers now have Pittsburgh as a short 1.5-point road favorite. 

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

On the look-ahead line for this playoff rematch from last year’s Wild Card round, the Philadelphia Eagles were the slightest of road favorites, laying one point against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

In Week 3, the Eagles went on the road and beat the team that arguably looked the most impressive in the first two weeks of the season, the New Orleans Saints. The Saints scored 91 points in the first two weeks of the season, but Philadelphia held them to just 12. 

On the other side, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked like one of the top teams in the league through the first two weeks, beating the Washington Commanders 37-20 before upsetting Detroit 20-16 on the road in Week 2. However, it all came crashing down for the Buccaneers in Week 3, as they were dominated on their home field by the Denver Broncos and took a 27-6 loss. 

With those performances in the books, FanDuel now has the Eagles as a 2.5-point road favorite over the Buccaneers. The total also dropped from 47 to 44.5 as a result of the strong defensive showing by Philadelphia, and the poor performance of both offenses in Week 3.

Tennessee Titans (0-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (1-2)

The Tennessee Titans have yet to win a game this season, but the market has still moved in their favor ahead of their Week 4 matchup with the Miami Dolphins.

The Titans aren’t the reason this line has moved. The main reason for the line movement is the reaction to seeing the Dolphins play without Tua Tagovailoa for the first time this season. Skylar Thompson was awful and Tim Boyle was only slightly better. The talents of players such as Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Devon Achane look like they will be largely limited without Tagovailoa. 

Will Levis hasn’t looked good for the Titans, but at least he has shown flashes. The same cannot be said about the Dolphins. As a result, the Dolphins have gone from 1.5-point home favorites to 1.5-point home underdogs on Monday night. 

Pair of quarterback questions

Two other lines saw major movement compared to their look-ahead line, but those movements were more of a result of quarterback news rather than a reaction to the teams’ performances in Week 3. 

The Minnesota Vikings were originally 1.5-point road favorites over the Green Bay Packers, but Jordan Love returned to practice late last week and looks like he might return under center for the Packers in Week 4. As a result, the Packers are now 2.5-point home favorites. 

Elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs were originally 4-point road favorites in their matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 3, Justin Herbert left the Chargers’ loss to Pittsburgh and was replaced by Taylor Heinicke. Herbert re-injured his right ankle and is questionable to play on Sunday. As a result, the Chiefs ballooned up to an 8.5-point road favorite. If it’s announced that Herbert is officially out, that line might move even more.

While look-ahead lines might be fun to look at, you can see they are subject to change by the time kickoff approaches. If you know what to look for, it can create value betting opportunities.