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How sportsbooks and bettors are reacting to the Saints’ hot start
New Orleans, off to a 2-0 start, has seen its odds drastically change.
The New Orleans Saints are marching into the futures markets. After a 2-0 start, the Saints have become the hottest ticket among public futures bettors, with DraftKings Sportsbook taking more money on the New Orleans over the past 24 hours than any team in the League.
Prior to Week 2, the Saints were barely on the public’s radar, coming in with one of the lower handles and ticket percentages relative to their chances. That all has changed following their impressive start.
New Orleans took care of business against the Panthers in Week 1 and notched a resounding 44-19 road win over the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. They are now +120 to win the NFL South at DraftKings, making them favorites to win the division. The Saints’ prolific opening to the NFL season also had them jump to the 12th-best odds to win the Super Bowl.
Bettors still not believing in Saints’ chances
Yet, despite the steam on the Saints over the past 24 hours, the team only represents a small percentage of the handle at DraftKings, and the raw number of tickets placed on Saints futures remains one of the lowest in the NFL.
New Orleans accounts for 9% of the handle on the NFL South Division Winner market, the lowest among the four teams. In fact, the Carolina Panthers, who have the longest odds to win the NFC South and whom the Saints defeated in Week 1, still represent 10% of the betting handle in this market. The Saints represent a larger percentage of the tickets placed to win the NFC South, suggesting that more recreational and smaller bets have been placed on New Orleans, relative to larger wagers on Carolina.
The Saints currently have the 12th shortest odds on the Super Bowl winner market and their chances could climb higher if they continue their winning ways. DraftKings has taken more money on New Orleans than any team on this market, ahead of the popular Super Bowl favorite Kansas City Chiefs and the emerging Houston Texans.
Individual Saints players put on a show over the Cowboys in Week 2, led by running back Alvin Kamara, who notched four touchdowns in the victory. Kamara is still outside the top 10 on the odds board for Offensive Player of the Year. But like his team, Kamara’s futures markets should continue to take more money if he continues his stellar play, and his odds will certainly continue to climb.
What does this say about the Saints’ value?
With the Saints steamrolling their first two opponents, including a highly respected Cowboys squad, it’s easy to see the value on them in the Super Bowl and divisional futures markets. This team looks a lot more impressive than the 11 teams ahead of them on the Super Bowl odds board. But how much can bettors glean from the first two weeks of action?
It’s hard to say. Data from sportsbooks, such as handle percentages and ticket numbers, can give us a great idea of where the public is at on a team. But recreational bettors would be wise to follow steam coming from sharp bettors and groups rather than following where other casual bettors are putting their money. It’s good to know who the best bettors and betting groups are backing if you can. That’s a tall task, but worth considering as you evaluate this Saints team’s hot start.
Another way to test the strength of the Saints is to observe their odds in single-game markets for Week 3 and beyond. Futures betting markets are strong profit centers for sportsbooks that can charge high holds without the clear vigorish of two-way game betting and prop markets.
The Saints have moved to -1.5 against the Eagles in Week 3. That’s serious movement given the Saints’ preseason outlook, suggesting that sharp action is moving these markets toward the Saints. The Eagles are +1100 at DraftKings to win the Super Bowl, so it says something that they are an underdog to the lower-ranked Saints, who are +3500 to win the championship. It suggests that at +3500, there may be some value on New Orleans.
Recreational bettors looking to assess the odds on the Saints may also want to ask if anything has materially changed on the Saints roster between this year and last year. Most of the players and coaching staff have been retained and are now in their second full season together.
The Saints had a tough campaign last year, but it is now the second year that quarterback David Carr is at the helm of head coach Dennis Allen’s offense. Kamara was plagued by injuries heading into 2023 but appears fully healthy to start this season. While there haven’t been significant roster changes in New Orleans, they are in a much better spot in terms of health and experience, which could have been missed by sharper bettors who thought the lack of roster turnover meant the same marginal team was returning this year.
If the Saints are going to be Super Bowl contenders, now may be the time to buy, as the price likely won’t drop if they continue to play like they have in Weeks 1 and 2.