Longshot prop bets for NFL Week 7: Could Barkley punish his old team?

Geno Smith, Tony Pollard, and Saquon Barkley all look like good bets for a big game.

The Week 7 slate of NFL games features some very intriguing matchups, highlighted by a Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. There is also a high-stakes NFC North clash between the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings, as well as a matchup of two Super Bowl hopefuls in the Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers.

Such an intriguing Sunday schedule should draw plenty of attention from NFL betting markets. This article discusses three intriguing longshot bets for Sunday afternoon’s games. In this case, “longshot” is defined as bets with betting odds of +400 or longer, which equates to less than a 20% implied probability. 

The betting odds used in this article were the best odds currently available at the best online sportsbooks at the time of writing.

Geno Smith 325+ passing yards (+475, DraftKings)

over/under lines of the day at 51 total points. Under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, the Seahawks have been the most pass-heavy team in the league, throwing the ball on 68.4% of their offensive plays. Geno Smith is very quietly leading the NFL in passing with 296.3 yards per game thanks partly to his league-high 41.8 pass attempts per game. Now he faces a Falcons team that is 21st in the league in both DVOA and EPA against the pass. 

Those numbers alone offer some confidence that Smith can outperform his season average by 29 yards or more to hit this bet, but the expected game script is also a big factor here. These teams are both top three in the league in pace of play, and neither defense is particularly strong overall. Atlanta is 20th in DVOA and 21st in EPA per play allowed, while Seattle’s defense is 18th in both categories. Atlanta is also 6th in offensive DVOA and 8th in EPA. 

In other words, we have two strong offenses that play at a fast pace facing two average to below-average defenses. That helps to explain why the Over/Under is so high in this game (and the Over is probably a good bet). The Seahawks are also 3-point underdogs against the spread, so there is a decent chance they will be playing from behind. 

Finally, this game will be played indoors in Atlanta, so there is no risk of weather impacting the offenses. In Smith’s one previous game in a dome this season (Week 4 against Detroit), he threw for 395 yards. He also has thrown for over 325 yards in both of his road starts so far this season (327 in Week 2 at New England). 

Everything about this game sets up for a big day through the air for Geno Smith, and with nearly 5-to-1 odds for him to exceed his season average by less than 30 yards, this bet at DraftKings Sportsbook is one of the best longshot bets of Week 7. 

Tony Pollard 100+ rushing yards (+450, DraftKings)

Tony Pollard should be the workhorse of the Titans’ offense this week in a great matchup against the Buffalo Bills. The Bills’ defense is struggling mightily against the run, allowing a league-high 5.3 yards per carry and the 10th-most rushing yards per game (140.2). They also rank 22nd in EPA per rush allowed and are allowing the fourth-highest rate of explosive runs (defined as runs of 10+ yards). 

Pollard is averaging a career-best 67.8 rushing yards per game on a solid 4.3 yards per carry. He is also getting a career-high 15.6 rushing attempts per game, and that number could go up this week with backup running back Tyjae Spears expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury. Pollard had his best game of the season last week against the Colts, gaining 93 yards and a touchdown on 5.5 yards per carry. He has gained 80 or more yards in three of his five games this season.

The biggest hesitation with this pick is the possibility that the Titans are down big and are forced to abandon the run. The Bills are 8-point favorites and got a boost this week with the addition of No. 1 wide receiver Amari Cooper, so that is a legitimate possibility. The Titans do have a solid defense that is 9th in DVOA and 6th in EPA, which should help to keep things close. The over/under is also on the low end at just 40.5 total points, and if the scoring is low in this game, that reduces the chances of the Bills leading by double digits. Even if they do, the Titans could still stick with Pollard and the ground game, since that is their most effective offense. 

That said, if the potential game script is a concern, then another way to bet on Pollard in this favorable matchup could be to take 140+ rushing and receiving yards, which is priced at +500 at Caesars Sportsbook. The Bills are allowing the most receiving yards (61.3) and receptions (6.83) per game to opposing running backs, and the likely absence of Spears as a pass-catching back should create more opportunities for Pollard as a receiver. Both the rushing and combined yardage bets are excellent longshot bets in this matchup.

Saquon Barkley to score 2+ touchdowns (+400, FanDuel) or to score the first touchdown (+400, FanDuel)

One of the big storylines of Week 7 is Saquon Barkley facing his former team for the first time since bolting in free agency for the Giants’ division rival Philadelphia Eagles. This storyline has some added intrigue because Giants owner John Mara said on HBO’s Hard Knocks Offseason Edition this summer “I’ll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia.” While Barkley has downplayed the added significance of this game, even saying that he does not expect Giants fans to boo him, there will undoubtedly be some extra juice this week. 

Let’s lean into that narrative by betting on Barkley to have a big game this week. Barkley has already scored five touchdowns this season, and all five of those scores have come in two games. So his touchdowns have been coming in bunches, and in both games in which he has scored, he also scored the first touchdown of the game. Overall, the Eagles have scored the first touchdown in four of their five games this season, even though they are the only team in the league that has not scored a point in the first quarter this season.

Normally it’s not exactly a sound betting strategy to make a bet based on something like the “revenge game” narrative. But sports betting is also supposed to be fun, and this bet will simply be a fun bet to root for (unless you’re a Giants fan). The Giants are also allowing the second-most yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, so it’s not like there are no football reasons to like this matchup for Barkley as well. 
It’s also worth noting that there is some built-in value in the odds on these bets at FanDuel Sportsbook. The same bets at Caesars are priced at +305 for the first touchdown and +285 for two or more touchdowns. At bet365, a multi-touchdown is priced even lower at +260.