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BetMGM most popular bets to make and miss the 2024 NFL Playoffs
The Denver Broncos (+450) have garnered the most betting interest to make the NFL Playoffs
The 2024 NFL season officially is underway, and at this very early point in the season, some of the most popular NFL betting markets are the futures betting markets. This includes wagers such as which team will win the Super Bowl, which players will win awards such as MVP, how many games each team will win, and which clubs will make or miss the playoffs.
Because the campaign just began, and so many unexpected things can happen during an 18-week regular season, futures betting markets can offer attractive odds. Bettors routinely can find plays they like that offer odds at +200 or higher, where they can double their money or do even better. That’s part of what makes NFL futures betting so popular. It also gives fans something to follow and root for all season long.
Finding the best NFL futures bets is all about balancing the likelihood of a bet winning with the potential payout. Betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to make the playoffs is very likely to be a winning bet, but with -1000 odds (after having defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the season opener) currently at BetMGM, a $100 bet would only win $10. Even that might seem like “easy money,” but if Patrick Mahomes gets injured early in the season, suddenly that is looking like a $100 loss.
Futures betting data can offer insights into which teams the NFL betting community feels offer the best balance between the probability of hitting and potential rewards. In this article, we will look at which NFL teams have generated the most action in the futures betting markets for making or missing the playoffs. We will provide some data from BetMGM on the most popular teams for each of those futures markets and discuss why bettors are targeting those teams for NFL playoff futures betting.
All odds in this article were provided by BetMGM and are current as of Sept. 8, 2024.
Most popular bets to make the 2024 NFL playoffs
BetMGM Sportsbook has provided some data on which teams have received the most bets and the biggest handle on futures bets to make the playoffs. The Denver Broncos lead the way in both betting tickets and betting handle.
Most bet teams to MAKE the 2024 NFL Playoffs*
| Tickets | Handle | |
|---|---|---|
| First | Denver Broncos (+450) | Denver Broncos (+450) |
| Second | Las Vegas Raiders (+300) | New York Jets (-165) |
| Third | Pittsburgh Steelers (+175) | Las Vegas Raiders (+300) |
*Sportsbook Data Insights provided by BetMGM as of 9/4/2024
Interestingly, two of the teams on these lists – the Broncos and Jets – have the two longest active playoff droughts. The Jets have not made the postseason since 2010 (13 seasons), while the Broncos’ last appearance was in 2015 (eight seasons).
Let’s dive deeper into why the Broncos are attracting the most action in this betting market.
Denver Broncos
The simplest explanation for the Broncos being such a popular pick to make the playoffs is that they have some of the longest odds in the league, and bettors are looking for a big payout. In the AFC, only the New England Patriots (+850) have longer odds to make the playoffs, but they offer very little reason for optimism that a longshot bet could pay off. The Broncos at least offer some reason for hope.
Rookie quarterback Bo Nix was one of the most experienced and NFL-ready QBs in the 2024 NFL Draft, which is a big reason why the Broncos made him the 12th overall pick. Nix started 61 games in college and threw nearly 2,000 passes. It didn’t take long for Denver head coach Sean Payton to see enough from Nix in training camp to declare him the starter over veterans Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson.
With his accuracy, quick decision-making and enough mobility to escape the pocket and make plays on the run, Nix has the tools to be an above-average NFL QB as a rookie. He may not have the same long-term upside as other rookies such as Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels, but he still could be a significant upgrade under center compared to Russell Wilson’s last two seasons with the Broncos.
Denver went 8-9 last year, and yet its win total is set at just 5.5 this season. In the Broncos’ win total betting market, approximately 94% of the tickets and 92% of the handle at BetMGM have been bet on Over 5.5 wins. That is the highest percentage of tickets and money on the Over of any team’s win total at BetMGM this season.
In the make/miss the playoffs betting market, 97% of the bets and 87% of the handle on the Broncos have been wagered on them making the playoffs. That is tied with the Seattle Seahawks (+170) for the highest percentage of tickets on any team, and it is the 10th-highest percentage of the handle on any team.
| Market | Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos to MAKE the playoffs | +450 | 97% | 87% |
| Denver Broncos to MISS the playoffs | -650 | 3% | 13% |
Most popular bets to miss the 2024 NFL playoffs
Let’s turn the tables now and look at some data on which teams have received the most bets and the biggest handle on futures bets to miss the playoffs this season. Once again, one team is leading the way in both categories, and this time, it’s the Chicago Bears.
Most bet teams to MISS the 2024 NFL Playoffs*
| Tickets | Handle | |
|---|---|---|
| First | Chicago Bears (-105) | Chicago Bears (-105) |
| Second | Los Angeles Chargers (-150) | Los Angeles Chargers (-150) |
| Third | New York Jets (+140) | New England Patriots (-1600) |
*Sportsbook Data Insights provided by BetMGM as of 9/4/2024
Unlike in the “make the playoffs” market, the Bears are not attracting all that betting action because of juicy plus odds that offer an attractive payout. So let’s discuss why they are generating more interest from bettors than any other team.
Chicago Bears
The first thing to notice about the Bears topping this list is that betting on teams to make the playoffs is far more popular than betting on teams to miss the playoffs. At BetMGM, the Bears have received the second-most tickets overall on the make/miss the playoffs betting market. Those tickets are split nearly 50/50 on Chicago either making or missing the playoffs, while closer to 60% of the handle is on the Bears missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
| Market | Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears to MAKE the playoffs | -115 | 51% | 41% |
| Chicago Bears to MISS the playoffs | -105 | 49% | 59% |
If less than half the Bears tickets at BetMGM are on them missing the playoffs, and that represents the most tickets of any team, then it follows that there are significantly more tickets bet across the league on teams making the playoffs. Sports bettors tend to skew toward betting on positive outcomes, partly because rooting for a team (or player) to succeed is more fun than rooting for them to fail.
Looking at that data, bettors clearly are split on their expectations for the Bears this season. No team has a tighter split of the tickets on this betting market – it’s hard to get tighter than 51/49. Only three teams have a tighter split on the handle: the Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Chargers.
| Team | Market | Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | MAKE the playoffs | -185 | 32% | 58% |
| MISS the playoffs | +150 | 68% | 42% | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | MAKE the playoffs | -250 | 47% | 56% |
| MISS the playoffs | +200 | 53% | 44% | |
| Los Angeles Chargers | MAKE the playoffs | +125 | 29% | 47% |
| MISS the playoffs | -150 | 71% | 53% |
Bettors might want to be careful about tailing this betting trend. Chicago should be one of the most improved teams in the league this season if No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams lives up to his lofty expectations. The Bears made sure he would be set up for success from Day One by acquiring running back D’Andre Swift via free agency, trading for veteran Keenan Allen and drafting fellow wide receiver Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick.
Chicago’s defense also improved dramatically over the course of the 2023 season, as it was one of the best in the league over the second half. From Weeks 1-9, the Bears ranked 30th in defensive EPA per play, but from weeks 10-18, they ranked third and finished the season at 16th overall.
The Bears have the fifth-easiest schedule in the league based on their opponents’ projected win totals. With what should be a much-improved offense, and if the defense picks up where it finished last season, Chicago has a very good chance to make the playoffs in the NFC.
A note on the New York Jets
Another interesting angle on this data is that the Jets have received the third-most tickets on bets to miss the playoffs, but they have received the second-biggest handle on bets to make the playoffs. The betting splits for the Jets’ make/miss the playoffs betting market is as follows:
| Market | Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets to MAKE the playoffs | -165 | 62% | 78% |
| New York Jets to MISS the playoffs | +140 | 38% | 22% |
This data indicates that BetMGM is receiving some very large bets on the Jets to make the playoffs. It may be that sharp (or professional) bettors are backing them to make the playoffs, while a high volume of low-value bets (from casual bettors) are coming in on them to miss out.