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NFL MVP odds update: Could Jayden Daniels win Offensive Rookie of the Year and MVP?

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is an early candidate for multiple NFL awards, including MVP

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) shakes hands with Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) after a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
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Five weeks of the 2024 season are in the rearview, with separation beginning to take shape in the standings. Certain teams are desperate for victories, including the Cincinnati Bengals at 1-4, and the top of the league is stratified with one team taking sole possession of the No. 1 seed in both conferences.

From an individual standpoint, the NFL MVP race always draws a great deal of attention and, once again, there is movement in this futures market this week. In this space, we’ll dive into the current state of the race, including the clear favorite, a defined second tier, and the rookie in Jayden Daniels who could crash the party.

The clear favorite

Two undefeated teams remain after five weeks of the 2024 season, and one is captained by the consensus best player in the sport. To the surprise of no one, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the heap when it comes to MVP odds, with BetMGM currently listing the 29-year-old at +240 to win the award.

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Mahomes has been the favorite at every step through the process, opening at +600 during the summer and entering the campaign at +500 prior to Week 1. Mahomes is in his own tier according to the current market at most top sportsbooks, but he is also sitting on that perch despite middling production from an individual standpoint. Through five games, Mahomes is just eighth in the NFL with 1,235 passing yards with as many interceptions (six) as touchdown passes (six). Still, he is getting the benefit of the doubt as the best player on the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, with the team’s unblemished record carrying hid stock for now.

The second tier

After Mahomes in his own stratosphere, three players are listed between +600 and +900 at various sportsbooks. Baltimore Ravens quarterback and reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is the consensus No. 2 in the market, coming in at +600 at DraftKings and +650 at multiple outlets. Jackson has been exceptionally efficient this season with nine passing touchdowns and only one interception, leading the Ravens to three straight wins in the process. He also has 363 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns, dazzling with his trademark combination of arm talent and explosiveness on the ground.

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Elsewhere, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen are in a similar place to Jackson in the NFL betting market. Stroud won a head-to-head battle with Allen in Week 4, leapfrogging him in the odds and sitting as high as +600 at both BetRivers and FanDuel. Stroud is third in the NFL with nearly 1,400 passing yards, and he is the centerpiece of an impressive Texans team. Allen struggled badly in the loss to Houston, completing only 9 of his 30 passes, but he remains one of only a small group of quarterbacks without an interception in five games. Allen is also a potent dual-threat using his physicality and speed as a runner, and he captains a team with tangible upside. 

Jayden Daniels is turning heads 

The Washington Commanders are on a four-game winning streak and, while that is a team accomplishment, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is in the middle of it all. Daniels has thrown for at least 226 yards and rushed for at least 39 yards in each of those four victories, now ranking in the top third of the league with 1,135 passing yards and connecting on more than 77 percent of his passes in 2024. He is also one of the best runners at the position in the NFL, and Daniels is operating with the poise befitting of a veteran, rather than a first-year player. 

Daniels was priced as high as +30000 at BetMGM earlier this season, but he is now down to +1000 at that outlet and no higher than +1100 at both FanDuel and BetRivers. He is aiming to become the first rookie since Jim Brown in 1957 to win the MVP award, and Daniels is also a clear favorite to win another prestigious honor.

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After Week 5, BetMGM has the best price in the market on Daniels to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at -210, and he is priced as high as -250. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams is priced as a solid second option, but there has been a clear shift toward Daniels and his placement in the current MVP market is in line with that expectation.