Paul Skenes: MLB’s rising star and sportsbooks’ big liability

The Pittsburgh Pirate is on his way to winning awards and scaring sportsbooks.

It’s been quite the ride for Paul Skenes.

In 2023, he won the National Pitcher of the Year Award and Dick Howser Trophy at LSU. His Tigers team won the College World Series and he was named Most Outstanding Player. He was then selected No. 1 overall in the MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He made his way through Pittsburgh’s minor league system in less than a year and immediately began dominating MLB hitters. He started the All Star Game for the National League. He’s a big part of the reason why the Pittsburgh Pirates are in contention for a wild-card spot. Somewhere along the way, he also began dating gymnast and social media personality Olivia Dunne, who has a social media following of more than 10 million. 

It’s been a whirlwind. However, one group has been along for the ride the whole time: MLB bettors. Every step of the way, he’s come through. He’s cost sportsbooks tons of money, and may cost them even more at the end of the year. 

Bettors can’t get enough of Paul Skenes, and sportsbooks are paying the price. 

The most popular prop bet every start

Skenes made his first MLB start on May 11 against the Cubs. It was far from a masterpiece, as he gave up three runs in just four innings. However, he did flash his stuff by striking out seven batters. 

Since then, Skenes has made 12 additional starts. He’s gone at least six innings in 11 of them. He has a miniscule 1.90 ERA on the season, striking out 103 strikeouts in 80.2 innings. He’s struck out at least seven batters in 11 of his 13 starts. 

Bettors have certainly noticed. 

Every night Skenes is on the mound, bettors pile up to bet his strikeout prop. He’s consistently the most-bet prop and biggest liability for the sportsbooks on any night he’s in action. It’s one-sided action too. In his last start, 90% of the money was on him to go over his strikeout prop. 

Skenes failing to go over 6.5 strikeouts in his most recent start against Houston was an outlier. 

Through 13 starts, bettors who have bet on Skenes to go over his prop total for strikeouts have posted a 10-3 record. It’s been as simple as checking to see if he’s pitching and if he is, betting on him to go over his number.

Sportsbooks will continue to raise his prop line, but bettors will likely continue to bet the over. With Pittsburgh in a wild-card race, he’s going to pitch deep into games. He’s already struck out double-digit batters in a game multiple times this season. 

At this point, operators might be the only group rooting against the Pirates pitcher. 

Awards betting poses liability

Paul Skenes didn’t make his MLB debut until six weeks into the season, which meant he would start behind the proverbial eight ball when it comes to season-long awards such as NL Rookie of the Year or NL Cy Young. 

However, Skenes has been so dominant and electric that recency bias will make it almost impossible to ignore his accomplishments. At this point, many don’t even care that he missed the first part of the season.

When he made his MLB debut, BetMGM opened with Skenes at +1300 to win NL Rookie of the Year and +2500 to win NL Cy Young. The sportsbook likely didn’t think Skenes would make up for lost time so efficiently. At the time, Cubs rookie pitcher Shota Imanaga had an ERA of under 1.00 through nine starts. Even if Skenes was as good as advertised, he had stiff competition. 

However, bettors once again lined up to bet on Skenes. In total, 25% of the money in the Rookie of the Year market is on Skenes. In the Cy Young market, 20% of the money is backing the Pirates pitcher. He’s got the highest betting handle in both categories at BetMGM. 

Of course, the odds have narrowed. Skenes is a -3000 favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year. That’s an implied probability of 96.8%. The next best odds belong to Jackson Merrill of the Padres at +1500 and Imanaga at +2500. Many sportsbooks have removed the market and are no longer taking bets on it, waving the proverbial white flag. 

In the Cy Young race, oddsmakers have Chris Sale as a slight favorite over Skenes. However, it’s essentially a coin flip; Sale is +120 at BetMGM to win the award, while Skenes is +150. Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler is +325, while no other pitcher has odds better than +2500.

At the very least, Skenes has done enough to make oddsmakers and sportsbook operators sweat paying out his Cy Young betting tickets. As mentioned, those odds were as high as +2500 less than three months ago. A lot of bettors are holding tickets at good prices. Oddsmakers are likely rooting for Sale or Wheeler to take home the hardware. 

Sportsbooks did have one go their way at the All-Star game. 

Skenes started the game for the National League, and he was far and away the most popular bet at BetMGM. Heading into the game, Senior Trader Hal Egeland said, “The one thing I know for certain is that we’ll be cheering against Paul Skenes to win All-Star MVP. He’s our biggest liability by a decent margin.”

Jarren Duran of the Red Sox was named MVP of the game, saving the operators. Duran was 45-to-1 to win MVP and less than 1% of bets were backing him.