Week 3 NFL quarterback rankings, tiers and projections

Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen lead the top tier

Quarterbacks garner more attention than any other position group in NFL betting circles, and that is with good reason. They are the most important players on the field and, on a weekly basis, quarterbacks headline game preview content to go along with the prop betting market. In this space, we will endeavor to rank the 30 quarterbacks who will suit up over the weekend in Week 3 action, using the statistical projections outlined by the prop market.

This projection combines passing yards, passing touchdowns, and rushing yards, with a sprinkling of rushing touchdown inclusion for the handful of players who are favored to reach the end zone while actually carrying the football. This projection also uses standard fantasy scoring: four points per passing touchdown, one point per 25 passing yards, one point per 10 rushing yards, and six points per rushing touchdown. With that said, let’s take a glance at the Week 3 quarterback rankings according to online sportsbooks.

Tier 1: Rushing Is key

1 – Jalen Hurts

Projections: 226.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 41.5 rush yards, rush TD, 23.2 fantasy points

Three quarterbacks are projected to score a rushing touchdown in Week 3, and they rank at the top of this list as a result. Courtesy of the Tush Push, Hurts is always near the top of the rushing touchdown leaderboard among quarterbacks, and he adds reliable passing production. 

2 – Josh Allen

Projections: 230.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 31.5 rush yards, rush TD, 22.4 fantasy points

Allen has 42 total pass attempts in two weeks, which is a jarringly low number for an elite quarterback. Buffalo is leaning on its running game quite a bit, but Allen is a part of that, which raises his profile. 

3 – Anthony Richardson

Projections: 190.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 40.5 rush yards, rush TD, 21.7 fantasy points

Richardson is the true definition of a boom-or-bust player right now. His rushing talent is undeniable, and Richardson has a massive arm that can impress at any moment. But he also has a completion rate below 50 percent and is currently reliant on his legs to a degree that Hurts and Allen are not.

Tier 2: The high-flying passers

4 – Patrick Mahomes

Projections: 263.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 18.5 rush yards, 20.4 fantasy points

After one of the least productive passing games of his career in Week 2, Mahomes looks to bounce back from an individual standpoint. He will always command respect in the market, and Mahomes is taking on a Falcons defense that is exploitable on Sunday.

5 – Joe Burrow

Projections: 264.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 11.5 rush yards, 19.7 fantasy points

Burrow’s top-five projection stems from a combination of talent and matchup. Burrow is one of the game’s best passers. He also has a home game against a porous Washington defense on Sunday.

6 – Dak Prescott

Projections: 253.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 19.2 fantasy points

One of the high-profile showdowns of Week 3 pits the Cowboys against the Ravens, and Prescott is a key part of the appeal. He is regularly near the top of the league in passing production, and it’s no surprise to see him here. 

7 – CJ Stroud

Projections: 263.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 6.5 rush yards, 19.2 fantasy points

Stroud is widely viewed as one of the league’s best young quarterbacks, and the stats back that up. He has been consistent and impressive through two weeks, and Stroud will have an intriguing matchup against Minnesota in Week 3. 

8 – Baker Mayfield

Projections: 242.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 18.7 fantasy points

Mayfield leads an explosive Tampa Bay offense, and he is projected for multiple passing touchdowns after racking up five passing scores in two weeks. He is a mild rushing threat, including a touchdown on the ground already this season, and Mayfield is at home against Denver in Week 3. 

9 – Jared Goff

Projections: 263.5 pass yards, 2 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 18.6 fantasy points

Detroit’s offense is tremendous, and Goff is near the top of the board in projected passing yards. Part of that is a potentially advantageous matchup against Arizona, but Goff’s total lack of rushing does limit the ceiling.

Tier 3: Dual-threat options with upside

10 – Lamar Jackson

Projections: 216.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 54.5 rush yards, 18.1 fantasy points

Jackson has only two passing touchdowns in two weeks, and he still ranks among the league leaders in overall production. He has the highest rushing projection of any quarterback in Week 3, and Jackson’s rushing ability is transcendent at the position. Baltimore is also facing a Dallas defense that is coming off a calamitous performance last week. 

11 – Jayden Daniels

Projections: 197.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 47.5 rush yards, 16.7 fantasy points

Only Jackson is projected for more rushing yards than Daniels in Week 3, and he is averaging 66 rushing yards per game in two career starts. The passing data leaves plenty to be desired in the early stage of his career, but Daniels is facing a Bengals defense that hasn’t been dominant in 2024. 

12 – Kyler Murray

Projections: 231.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 32.5 rush yards, 16.5 fantasy points

Murray has the NFL’s best ratio of touchdown passes (four) to interceptions (zero). He is also operating in highly efficient fashion this season, and Murray’s legs are always a weapon. This week, he faces a Lions defense that is stingy, but it is a game that projects for plenty of points, with an over/under of 51.5 points at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Tier 4: QBs with tough matchups and situations

13 – Caleb Williams

Projections: 213.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 14.7 fantasy points

The offensive numbers for the Bears are fairly dire, and it is miraculous that Chicago is 1-1 given that baseline. Williams is still the No. 1 overall pick with off-the-charts talent, though, and he is facing a Colts defense in Week 3 that can be beaten. 

14 – Trevor Lawrence

Projections: 225.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 16.5 rush yards, 14.7 fantasy points

Lawrence’s talent has not matched the results, both this season and over the last few years. He is still averaging more than seven yards per pass attempt without an interception this year, and Lawrence has the ability to create with his legs. 

15 – Sam Darnold

Projections: 232.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 13.5 rush yards, 14.7 fantasy points

Minnesota’s 2-0 start is encouraging from a team standpoint, and Darnold is a part of that. Darnold is completing more than 70 percent of his passes, and he is also at least a peripheral rushing threat. This week is a nice test against Houston.

16 – Geno Smith

Projections: 234.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.4 fantasy points

Smith has been rock-solid this season. He is in the top eight of the NFL in passing yards and coming off a 327-yard outing against the Patriots in Week 2. Now, Smith is back at home to face Miami. 

17 – Deshaun Watson

Projections: 198.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 13.5 rush yards, 14.4 fantasy points

Watson is completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes with more interceptions than touchdowns this season. If anything, this might seem high for Watson based on recent play, but a matchup against the Giants defense is appetizing for any quarterback. 

18 – Justin Fields

Projections: 158.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 40.5 rush yards, 14.4 fantasy points

Pittsburgh’s passing offense has been almost non-existent through two weeks, but the Steelers are 2-0. Fields has kept the train rolling, using his legs as a threat and avoiding mistakes. This week’s matchup against the Chargers projects for a low-scoring atmosphere, but Fields is a high-end rushing threat. 

19 – Brock Purdy

Projections: 227.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 10.5 rush yards, 14.2 fantasy points

Purdy led the NFL in passing yards through two weeks, racking up 275.0 yards per game. His projections are more muted in a road game against a divisional opponent in the Rams, particularly with injury uncertainty with San Francisco’s pass-catching room. 

20 – Daniel Jones

Projections: 183.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 27.5 rush yards, 14.1 fantasy points

Jones is an underrated rusher, which seems to raise his floor. Still, New York’s passing game appears to be almost entirely limited to Malik Nabers, and Jones projects to fall short of 200 yards against Cleveland.

21 – Bo Nix

Projections: 187.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 21.5 rush yards, 13.7 fantasy points

It has been a hideous struggle for Bo Nix this season with no touchdowns and four interceptions. Nix is also averaging only 5.0 yards per attempt, but Denver might have incentive to pass quite a bit in a road game against Tampa Bay. 

22 – Derek Carr

Projections: 234.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 1.5 rush yards, 13.5 fantasy points

It is likely surprising to see Carr this low after the success of the Saints offense to begin the season. However, much of that has come via New Orleans’ ground attack and, because he is not a part of the running game, this is not the rosiest projection against the Eagles. 

Tier 5: The basement

23 – Will Levis

Projections: 204.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 12.5 rush yards, 13.4 fantasy points

Tennessee’s 0-2 start has been marred by Levis making a couple of utterly glaring mistakes. He does have a big arm and the ability to run a bit, but there is clear skepticism as he faces the Packers in Week 3. 

24 – Malik Willis

Projections: 149.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 33.5 rush yards, 13.3 fantasy points

Willis is another example of how rushing quarterbacks seem to have higher floors. He projects for the fewest passing yards of any player on this list, but Willis is a clear rushing threat that is facing an 0-2 team. 

25 – Gardner Minshew

Projections: 218.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 5.5 rush yards, 13.3 fantasy points

The Raiders are slinging the ball around through two games, with Minshew generating 71 pass attempts. If that continues, these projections will be low, but the Raiders may not need to throw the ball much against Carolina. 

26 – Kirk Cousins

Projections: 226.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 13.1 fantasy points

Cousins had a mini-breakout in the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night, and he does project for more passing yards than the other players in this range. However, he isn’t a runner, and this is a difficult matchup with the Chiefs coming to Atlanta. 

27 – Skylar Thompson

Projections: 192.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 9.5 rush yards, 12.7 fantasy points

Thompson has the unenviable task of leading the Dolphins into a raucous Seattle environment. He does have the benefit of an elite playmaker in Tyreek Hill and a fantastic play-caller in Mike McDaniel. With that said, Thompson isn’t the most polished passer. 

28 – Matthew Stafford

Projections: 214.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.6 fantasy points

The Rams are facing a dire injury situation, and Stafford pays the price in his projections this week. He will be operating without his two star wide receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and the Rams are short-handed on the offensive line. Plus, Stafford isn’t a running threat, and the Rams must face the stingy 49ers defense. 

29 – Andy Dalton

Projections: 213.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 12.6 fantasy points

Dalton takes over for Bryce Young in Carolina, and does so in a road game in Las Vegas. Dalton is an above-average backup quarterback that is well-suited to keeping the trains running in Carolina. However, his lack of rushing upside and a middling Panthers offense lowers his ceiling.

30 – Justin Herbert

Projections: 180.5 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 0.5 rush yards, 11.3 fantasy points

Herbert is a far better player than these numbers suggest, but this situation is quite difficult for him in Week 3. The Chargers face a potentially elite Steelers defense in a game that projects to be low-scoring and slow-paced. In addition, Herbert is battling injury, leading to no projected rushing production and a modest overall projection.