This continues to be one of the most stable seasons when it comes to the bowl projections. I have not changed the projection for the College Football Playoff in several weeks. Even the New Year's Six bowls rarely shift. As such, we should brace for a chaotic last couple of weeks. Upsets are bound to happen when some of these better teams and fierce rivals finally play each other.
The Big 12 has been the most chaotic league this season -- except for current leader Texas. Upset losses by Kansas and Oklahoma State on Saturday have pushed Oklahoma back into the Alamo Bowl in this week's projection. The Cowboys' 45-3 loss at UCF was particularly egregious. They must have had quite the Bedlam hangover.
In the SEC, Missouri and Tennessee traded places in the bowl projections after the Tigers' 36-7 win over the Volunteers. Mizzou is now projected to Citrus Bowl, while Tennessee is slotted for the Gator Bowl.
The Mountain West race has turned into a bit of a mess. For a while, it looked like the league would put a team in a New Year's Six game for the first time since Boise State played in the Fiesta Bowl in 2014, the first season of the CFP.
Now, every team in the league has at least two losses overall after Air Force fell at Hawaii and Fresno State lost at San Jose State. UNLV is tied with the Falcons with one conference loss. The Rebels' other loss came at Michigan. Maybe the Wolverines' nonconference schedule was not quite as horrible as we originally thought.
The leader for the Group of Five representative to the New Year's Six is Tulane, which was No. 23 in this past week's CFP Rankings. The Green Wave have been struggling of late but still winning. Since a 10-point win at Memphis on Oct. 13, they have beaten four sub-.500 teams by a total of 14 points.
College Football Playoff
| Date | Game / Loc. | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 8 | National Championship | Title game | Semifinal winners |
| Jan. 1 | Sugar Bowl New Orleans | Semifinal | (1) Georgia vs. (4) Texas |
Jan. 1 | Rose Bowl | Semifinal | (2) Michigan vs. (3) Florida State |
New Year's Six bowl games
| Date | Bowl / Location | Matchup | Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 1 | Fiesta Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Washington vs. Tulane |
Dec. 30 | Orange Bowl | ACC vs. SEC/B1G/ND | Louisville vs. Ohio State |
Dec. 30 | Peach Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Ole Miss vs. Penn State |
Dec. 29 | Cotton Bowl | at-large vs. at-large | Alabama vs. Oregon |
The Sun Belt is having a banner season with 10 teams projected to be bowl eligible. That includes undefeated James Madison, which is projected as an alternate -- the top team among those filling in if there are not enough eligible teams. The league only has 12 bowl games that they are eligible to play in barring vacancies by other conferences. I am now down to six teams in this week's projections that would not otherwise be eligible.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 11. And be sure to check out our rolling bowl eligibility tracker for the 2023-24 games.
