Fantasy Football Week 16: Rankings by position, full positional previews and top-150 overall rankings

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Let's just hope we can avoid any re-scheduled games this week, but those Tuesday night games weren't great for anyone. Except for Cooper Kupp, I guess, who is making a strong case to be the No. 2 overall pick in Fantasy drafts next year.

But that's a conversation topic for another day. Because today, we're taking our first look at Week 16 with my initial rankings and Heath Cummings' position previews. And things are, obviously, kind of a mess. We've still got players from last week on the COVID list or dealing with injuries, plus we've got nearly the entire Buccaneers skill player group dealing with injuries -- with Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin out for the rest of the regular season -- plus the likes of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler on the COVID list and Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle injury.

Among many other injuries. Although, hey, at least A.J. Brown might be back this week!

We'll have updates on all of the injuries you need to know about for Week 16 in tomorrow's newsletter with the first practice reports coming out later today, along with start and sit calls from Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg.

For now, I've got my first round of rankings for Week 16 ready to go here:

QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

And you can find more of my thoughts, plus Heath Cummings' preview for each position further down in today's newsletter:

🔍Week 16 Position Previews and Rankings

Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This week, I've got Heath's previews for each position as normal, but also my quick thoughts on each plus my rankings for each. Here's everything you need to know for Week 16:

QB Preview

As we prep for Week 16, COVID remains one of the defining features of the football landscape. At quarterback, we've got three starters – Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff – though the good news is, those guys aren't really Fantasy relevant most weeks, so you probably shouldn't miss them.

The bad news is that Lamar Jackson is still dealing with his ankle injury, and we still don't know if he's going to play – though Tyler Huntley was so impressive in his absence that he might be a top-12 QB even if Jackson does have to miss time. So, the really, really bad news is that there just aren't many quarterbacks actually playing well right now.

Week 15 saw just 38 passing touchdowns thrown in 32 QB games, the lowest total in a week with a full schedule since Week 15 of 2018. Passing production accounted for just 14.17 Fantasy points per QB game last week, the lowest total of the season and, again, the lowest total since Week 15 of 2018. In an era where passing production has basically consistently increased year over year, the second half of this season has seen a steep decline, and it's impacted elite quarterbacks just as much as the lower tiers, with a few key exceptions.

Which makes it hard to know who you can trust in this Fantasy playoff week. For instance, Dak Prescott is averaging just 12.6 points per game over his past five, while Kyler Murray hasn't topped 20 in either of his past two games. Patrick Mahomes has been wildly inconsistent, and, oh yeah, Tom Brady just lost his top three targets from this season.

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Training Camp — Oct 7, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports

Injuries: Lamar Jackson (ankle), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Taylor Heinicke (COVID), Baker Mayfield (COVID) and Jared Goff (COVID)
Number to know: 22% -- Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the only two quarterbacks with a bad throw percentage over 22% per Pro Football Reference. They face off this week, but can either take advantage of the matchup?
Matchup that matters: Joe Burrow vs. BAL (28th in points allowed to QB)
Top streamer: "Tyler Huntley. Huntley is my top priority for now just because he has the most upside if Jackson is out. But you should definitely have another quarterback rostered if you go this direction."
Top DFS play: "Justin Herbert. Let's pretend for a moment that Lamar Jackson is back. That makes Herbert my top value on the slate. He's also my highest-scoring projected quarterback this week against the Texans."

My Top 24

Justin Herbert @HOU
Aaron Rodgers vs. CLE
Tom Brady @CAR
Josh Allen @NE
Patrick Mahomes vs. PIT
Jalen Hurts vs. NYG
Lamar Jackson @CIN
Kyler Murray vs. IND
Matthew Stafford @MIN
Dak Prescott vs. WAS
Russell Wilson vs. CHI
Taysom Hill vs. MIA
Joe Burrow vs. BAL
Tua Tagovailoa @NO
Kirk Cousins vs. LAR
Cam Newton vs. TB
Matt Ryan vs. DET
Derek Carr vs. DEN
Justin Fields @SEA
Jimmy Garoppolo @TEN
Trevor Lawrence @NYJ
Ryan Tannehill vs. SF
Zach Wilson vs. JAX
Carson Wentz @ARI

RB Preview

Josh Jacobs is my No. 5 RB this week. Ezekiel Elliott is still top-10 for me. Maybe my rankings are just wildly off base this week, or maybe the running back position is just a total mess. That doesn't mean there aren't good options – there actually are plenty of really intriguing players out there. The problem is, it's hard to know who you can trust, as of Wednesday afternoon, at least.

For instance, I could see ranking the likes of Samaje Perine, Justin Jackson, or Jeff Wilson ahead of Elliott, but we just don't yet know what their roles are going to be. If Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Elijah Mitchell are all out, maybe all three would be ahead of Elliott. But, until we know those starters are out, it's hard to make that call.

It's similarly hard to make that call with guys in split backfields, most notably Aaron Jones and Javonte Williams. There's obviously big upside with both, but both seem to be stuck in near 50-50 splits in their own backfields. Cordarrelle Patterson has an incredible matchup against Detroit, but he's also seen his role in the passing game decrease significantly of late, leaving him much more touchdown-dependent than he was earlier in the season for his value.

And then there's Elliott, who just hasn't been good for a long time – he's averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per target over his past six games. That's brutal. But he's also getting five targets per game and at 12.2 carries, and the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites against Washington. I'd expect he's going to continue to have a healthy workload and a good chance for a touchdown. Maybe his upside isn't as high as some other backs, but his role just remains too valuable for me to get away from.

Injuries: Joe Mixon (ankle), Leonard Fournette (hamstring), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Damien Harris (hamstring), Kareem Hunt (COVID), Alexander Mattison (COVID), D'Onta Foreman (ankle), J.D. McKissic (concussion) and Alex Collins (COVID)
Number to know: 90 -- Touches for Ronald Jones in four games without Fournette last year.
Matchup that matters: Jeff Wilson @TEN (1st in points allowed to RB)
Stash: "Khalil Herbert. Herbert, and backs like him, should be filling your bench spots, just in case they end up with a feature role in Week 17."
Top DFS play: "Ronald Jones. Yes, everyone is going to play Jones if Fournette is out. No, I'm not brave enough to fade him at a high roster rate."

My Top 48

Jonathan Taylor @ARI
Dalvin Cook vs. LAR
James Robinson @NYJ
Alvin Kamara vs. MIA
Josh Jacobs vs. DEN
David Montgomery @SEA
Najee Harris @KC
Nick Chubb @GB
Ronald Jones @CAR
Antonio Gibson @DAL
Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS
Samaje Perine vs. BAL
Javonte Williams @LV
Cordarrelle Patterson vs. DET
Aaron Jones vs. CLE
Saquon Barkley @PHI
Justin Jackson @HOU
Jeff Wilson @TEN
Miles Sanders vs. NYG
Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PIT
Devin Singletary @NE
Myles Gaskin @NO
AJ Dillon vs. CLE
Melvin Gordon @LV
D'Onta Foreman vs. SF
Sony Michel @MIN
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. BUF
Ameer Abdullah vs. TB
Chuba Hubbard vs. TB
James Conner vs. IND
Chase Edmonds vs. IND
Rashaad Penny vs. CHI
Craig Reynolds @ATL
Devonta Freeman @CIN
Tevin Coleman vs. JAX
DeeJay Dallas vs. CHI
Darrell Henderson @MIN
Godwin Igwebuike @ATL
Darrel Williams vs. PIT
Brandon Bolden vs. BUF
Le'Veon Bell @CAR
Mike Davis vs. DET
Joshua Kelley @HOU
David Johnson vs. LAC
Nyheim Hines @ARI
Corey Clement vs. WAS
Jordan Howard vs. NYG
Duke Johnson @NO

WR Preview

How many wide receivers can you really trust in Week 16? For many of you, this week is your chance to get into the Fantasy championship, after likely having skated by during one of the worst Fantasy weeks I can remember, and right now it feels like there aren't any wide receivers you can trust.

Of course, that's not true. There are dozens of them! Dozens!

Okay, probably not plural-dozens. Maybe just a dozen. In my rankings this week, there is a pretty dramatic drop in projected production between No. 9, Deebo Samuel, and No. 10, Jaylen Waddle, however, I would still feel pretty good about starting basically everyone through WR13, Marquise Brown. And, heck, I'll throw CeeDee Lamb in there, and probably Tee Higgins, despite his struggles in Week 15. And yeah, Russell Gage is pretty hard to get away from, and Gabriel Davis looks like a potential league-winner with Cole Beasley and possibly Emmanuel Sanders out. Okay, fine, Christian Kirk, too – he has 31 targets in the four games DeAndre Hopkins has missed this season.

But certainly not Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, or … well, you get the point. So, not quite dozens, but more than a dozen, for sure. Hopefully, having made the playoffs, you don't have to reach too much further than, say, No. 20 in the rankings for your starters. Because it's rough out there.

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 27: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his second half touchdown with Dak Prescott #4 while playing the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on September 27, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. Tom Pennington/Getty Images

Injuries: Chris Godwin (ACL), Mike Evans (hamstring), Tyler Lockett (COVID), Adam Thielen (ankle), Julio Jones (hamstring), Jarvis Landry (COVID), Emmanuel Sanders (knee), Allen Robinson (COVID), Kendrick Bourne (COVID), Kadarius Toney (COVID) and Sterling Shepard (Achilles)
Number to know: 35 -- Targets for Amon-Ra St. Brown over his last three games. He's an alpha No. 1 without T.J. Hockenson.
Matchup that matters: Amon-Ra St. Brown (30th in points allowed to WR)
Stash: "Jakobi Meyers. Meyers gets Jacksonville in Week 17."
Top DFS play: "Antonio Brown. Brown projects as a top-six wide receiver this week. He's not priced like one at all."

My Top 48

Cooper Kupp @MIN
Davante Adams vs. CLE
Justin Jefferson vs. LAR
Keenan Allen @HOU
Stefon Diggs @NE
Antonio Brown @CAR
Diontae Johnson @KC
Hunter Renfrow vs. DEN
Deebo Samuel @TEN
Jaylen Waddle @NO
D.J. Moore vs. TB
Amon-Ra St. Brown @ATL
Marquise Brown @CIN
CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS
Tee Higgins vs. BAL
Russell Gage vs. DET
Gabriel Davis @NE
Christian Kirk vs. IND
Michael Pittman @ARI
Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL
Chase Claypool @KC
Terry McLaurin @DAL
Amari Cooper vs. WAS
Brandon Aiyuk @TEN
D.K. Metcalf vs. CHI
DeVante Parker @NO
Odell Beckham @MIN
Jakobi Meyers vs. BUF
A.J. Green vs. IND
Mike Williams @HOU
Jerry Jeudy @LV
Jamison Crowder vs. JAX
K.J. Osborn vs. LAR
DeVonta Smith vs. NYG
Van Jefferson @MIN
Laviska Shenault @NYJ
Mecole Hardman vs. PIT
Michael Gallup vs. WAS
Tyler Boyd vs. BAL
Darnell Mooney @SEA
Kenny Golladay @PHI
Marvin Jones @NYJ
Adam Humphries @DAL
Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLE
Rashod Bateman @CIN
Laquon Treadwell @NYJ
Donovan Peoples-Jones @GB

TE Preview

There was some talk last week around Fantasy Football circles about Travis Kelce no longer being the No. 1 tight end, so he went out and put together the sixth-best tight end performance in a single game since 2000, with 41.1 PPR points. Of course, it's not like Mark Andrews, the consensus No. 1 last week, was much worse – he had the 17th-best performance, with 35.6 points. And it's worth pausing here, as the Fantasy playoffs move to the semi-finals, to note just how big of an edge those elite tight ends have still been able to give you this season.

Of the 30-best tight end performances in a single game since 2000, six have happened this season:

No. 5: Mark Andrews in Week 5 – 41.7 PPR points
No. 6: Travis Kelce in Week 15 – 41.1
No. 9: George Kittle in Week 13 – 39.6
No. 17: Mark Andrews in Week 15 – 35.6
No. 30: George Kittle in Week 14 – 34.1

Talk about coming up big at the right time. Overall, this position remains incredibly weak, with just six or maybe seven players I feel good about starting right now, with a clear drop after No. 4, Rob Gronkowski. The elites at the position still remain arguably the biggest consistent edge you can find in Fantasy – though, unfortunately, Kelce's status for Week 16 is very much in doubt after he tested positive for COVID, shrinking the already shallow pool of reliable options at the worst time.

LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 25: Logan Thomas #82 of the Washington Football Team runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game at FedExField on October 25, 2020 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Injuries: Travis Kelce (COVID), Darren Waller (knee), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Tyler Higbee (COVID) and Austin Hooper (COVID)
Number to know: 10 -- The Raiders have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second most in the NFL behind the Chargers.
Matchup that matters: Cole Kmet @SEA (28th in points allowed to TE)
Streamer: "Kmet. Kmet has had intermittent high target games and has a great matchup against Washington."
Top DFS play: "Rob Gronkowski. The loss of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should lead to increased target share for Gronkowski."

My Top 24