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Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Let's just hope we can avoid any re-scheduled games this week, but those Tuesday night games weren't great for anyone. Except for Cooper Kupp, I guess, who is making a strong case to be the No. 2 overall pick in Fantasy drafts next year.

But that's a conversation topic for another day. Because today, we're taking our first look at Week 16 with my initial rankings and Heath Cummings' position previews. And things are, obviously, kind of a mess. We've still got players from last week on the COVID list or dealing with injuries, plus we've got nearly the entire Buccaneers skill player group dealing with injuries -- with Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin out for the rest of the regular season -- plus the likes of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Austin Ekeler on the COVID list and Joe Mixon dealing with an ankle injury. 

Among many other injuries. Although, hey, at least A.J. Brown might be back this week!

We'll have updates on all of the injuries you need to know about for Week 16 in tomorrow's newsletter with the first practice reports coming out later today, along with start and sit calls from Dave Richard and Jamey Eisenberg. 

For now, I've got my first round of rankings for Week 16 ready to go here:

And you can find more of my thoughts, plus Heath Cummings' preview for each position further down in today's newsletter:

🔍Week 16 Position Previews and Rankings

Every Tuesday, Heath Cummings previews each position, providing injury insights, key stats to know, the best waiver-wire adds, DFS targets, and more for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. This week, I've got Heath's previews for each position as normal, but also my quick thoughts on each plus my rankings for each. Here's everything you need to know for Week 16:

QB Preview

As we prep for Week 16, COVID remains one of the defining features of the football landscape. At quarterback, we've got three starters – Taylor Heinicke, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff – though the good news is, those guys aren't really Fantasy relevant most weeks, so you probably shouldn't miss them. 

The bad news is that Lamar Jackson is still dealing with his ankle injury, and we still don't know if he's going to play – though Tyler Huntley was so impressive in his absence that he might be a top-12 QB even if Jackson does have to miss time. So, the really, really bad news is that there just aren't many quarterbacks actually playing well right now. 

Week 15 saw just 38 passing touchdowns thrown in 32 QB games, the lowest total in a week with a full schedule since Week 15 of 2018. Passing production accounted for just 14.17 Fantasy points per QB game last week, the lowest total of the season and, again, the lowest total since Week 15 of 2018. In an era where passing production has basically consistently increased year over year, the second half of this season has seen a steep decline, and it's impacted elite quarterbacks just as much as the lower tiers, with a few key exceptions. 

Which makes it hard to know who you can trust in this Fantasy playoff week. For instance, Dak Prescott is averaging just 12.6 points per game over his past five, while Kyler Murray hasn't topped 20 in either of his past two games. Patrick Mahomes has been wildly inconsistent, and, oh yeah, Tom Brady just lost his top three targets from this season. 

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Training Camp
Oct 7, 2021; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) looks to pass against the Los Angeles Rams during the second quarter at Lumen Field. Kim Klement / USA TODAY Sports
  • Injuries: Lamar Jackson (ankle), Teddy Bridgewater (concussion), Taylor Heinicke (COVID), Baker Mayfield (COVID) and Jared Goff (COVID)  
  • Number to know: 22% -- Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are the only two quarterbacks with a bad throw percentage over 22% per Pro Football Reference. They face off this week, but can either take advantage of the matchup?
  • Matchup that matters: Joe Burrow vs. BAL (28th in points allowed to QB)
  • Top streamer: "Tyler Huntley. Huntley is my top priority for now just because he has the most upside if Jackson is out. But you should definitely have another quarterback rostered if you go this direction."  
  • Top DFS play: "Justin Herbert. Let's pretend for a moment that Lamar Jackson is back. That makes Herbert my top value on the slate. He's also my highest-scoring projected quarterback this week against the Texans."

My Top 24

  1. Justin Herbert @HOU
  2. Aaron Rodgers vs. CLE
  3. Tom Brady @CAR
  4. Josh Allen @NE
  5. Patrick Mahomes vs. PIT
  6. Jalen Hurts vs. NYG
  7. Lamar Jackson @CIN
  8. Kyler Murray vs. IND
  9. Matthew Stafford @MIN
  10. Dak Prescott vs. WAS
  11. Russell Wilson vs. CHI
  12. Taysom Hill vs. MIA
  13. Joe Burrow vs. BAL
  14. Tua Tagovailoa @NO
  15. Kirk Cousins vs. LAR
  16. Cam Newton vs. TB
  17. Matt Ryan vs. DET
  18. Derek Carr vs. DEN
  19. Justin Fields @SEA
  20. Jimmy Garoppolo @TEN
  21. Trevor Lawrence @NYJ
  22. Ryan Tannehill vs. SF
  23. Zach Wilson vs. JAX
  24. Carson Wentz @ARI

RB Preview

Josh Jacobs is my No. 5 RB this week. Ezekiel Elliott is still top-10 for me. Maybe my rankings are just wildly off base this week, or maybe the running back position is just a total mess. That doesn't mean there aren't good options – there actually are plenty of really intriguing players out there. The problem is, it's hard to know who you can trust, as of Wednesday afternoon, at least. 

For instance, I could see ranking the likes of Samaje Perine, Justin Jackson, or Jeff Wilson ahead of Elliott, but we just don't yet know what their roles are going to be. If Joe Mixon, Austin Ekeler, and Elijah Mitchell are all out, maybe all three would be ahead of Elliott. But, until we know those starters are out, it's hard to make that call.

It's similarly hard to make that call with guys in split backfields, most notably Aaron Jones and Javonte Williams. There's obviously big upside with both, but both seem to be stuck in near 50-50 splits in their own backfields. Cordarrelle Patterson has an incredible matchup against Detroit, but he's also seen his role in the passing game decrease significantly of late, leaving him much more touchdown-dependent than he was earlier in the season for his value. 

And then there's Elliott, who just hasn't been good for a long time – he's averaging 3.3 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per target over his past six games. That's brutal. But he's also getting five targets per game and at 12.2 carries, and the Cowboys are 10.5-point favorites against Washington. I'd expect he's going to continue to have a healthy workload and a good chance for a touchdown. Maybe his upside isn't as high as some other backs, but his role just remains too valuable for me to get away from. 

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Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images
  • Injuries: Joe Mixon (ankle), Leonard Fournette (hamstring), D'Andre Swift (shoulder), Elijah Mitchell (knee), Damien Harris (hamstring), Kareem Hunt (COVID), Alexander Mattison (COVID), D'Onta Foreman (ankle), J.D. McKissic (concussion) and Alex Collins (COVID)  
  • Number to know: 90 -- Touches for Ronald Jones in four games without Fournette last year.
  • Matchup that matters: Jeff Wilson @TEN (1st in points allowed to RB)
  • Stash: "Khalil Herbert. Herbert, and backs like him, should be filling your bench spots, just in case they end up with a feature role in Week 17."    
  • Top DFS play: "Ronald Jones. Yes, everyone is going to play Jones if Fournette is out. No, I'm not brave enough to fade him at a high roster rate."

My Top 48

  1. Jonathan Taylor @ARI
  2. Dalvin Cook vs. LAR
  3. James Robinson @NYJ
  4. Alvin Kamara vs. MIA
  5. Josh Jacobs vs. DEN
  6. David Montgomery @SEA
  7. Najee Harris @KC
  8. Nick Chubb @GB
  9. Ronald Jones @CAR
  10. Antonio Gibson @DAL
  11. Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS
  12. Samaje Perine vs. BAL
  13. Javonte Williams @LV
  14. Cordarrelle Patterson vs. DET
  15. Aaron Jones vs. CLE
  16. Saquon Barkley @PHI
  17. Justin Jackson @HOU
  18. Jeff Wilson @TEN
  19. Miles Sanders vs. NYG
  20. Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PIT
  21. Devin Singletary @NE
  22. Myles Gaskin @NO
  23. AJ Dillon vs. CLE
  24. Melvin Gordon @LV
  25. D'Onta Foreman vs. SF
  26. Sony Michel @MIN
  27. Rhamondre Stevenson vs. BUF
  28. Ameer Abdullah vs. TB
  29. Chuba Hubbard vs. TB
  30. James Conner vs. IND
  31. Chase Edmonds vs. IND
  32. Rashaad Penny vs. CHI
  33. Craig Reynolds @ATL
  34. Devonta Freeman @CIN
  35. Tevin Coleman vs. JAX
  36. DeeJay Dallas vs. CHI
  37. Darrell Henderson @MIN
  38. Godwin Igwebuike @ATL
  39. Darrel Williams vs. PIT
  40. Brandon Bolden vs. BUF
  41. Le'Veon Bell @CAR
  42. Mike Davis vs. DET
  43. Joshua Kelley @HOU
  44. David Johnson vs. LAC
  45. Nyheim Hines @ARI
  46. Corey Clement vs. WAS
  47. Jordan Howard vs. NYG
  48. Duke Johnson @NO

WR Preview

How many wide receivers can you really trust in Week 16? For many of you, this week is your chance to get into the Fantasy championship, after likely having skated by during one of the worst Fantasy weeks I can remember, and right now it feels like there aren't any wide receivers you can trust.

Of course, that's not true. There are dozens of them! Dozens

Okay, probably not plural-dozens. Maybe just a dozen. In my rankings this week, there is a pretty dramatic drop in projected production between No. 9, Deebo Samuel, and No. 10, Jaylen Waddle, however, I would still feel pretty good about starting basically everyone through WR13, Marquise Brown. And, heck, I'll throw CeeDee Lamb in there, and probably Tee Higgins, despite his struggles in Week 15. And yeah, Russell Gage is pretty hard to get away from, and Gabriel Davis looks like a potential league-winner with Cole Beasley and possibly Emmanuel Sanders out. Okay, fine, Christian Kirk, too – he has 31 targets in the four games DeAndre Hopkins has missed this season. 

But certainly not Michael Pittman, Ja'Marr Chase, Chase Claypool, Terry McLaurin, Amari Cooper, or … well, you get the point. So, not quite dozens, but more than a dozen, for sure. Hopefully, having made the playoffs, you don't have to reach too much further than, say, No. 20 in the rankings for your starters. Because it's rough out there.

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ARLINGTON, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 27: CeeDee Lamb #88 of the Dallas Cowboys celebrates his second half touchdown with Dak Prescott #4 while playing the Philadelphia Eagles at AT&T Stadium on September 27, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. Tom Pennington/Getty Images

My Top 48

  1. Cooper Kupp @MIN
  2. Davante Adams vs. CLE
  3. Justin Jefferson vs. LAR
  4. Keenan Allen @HOU
  5. Stefon Diggs @NE
  6. Antonio Brown @CAR
  7. Diontae Johnson @KC
  8. Hunter Renfrow vs. DEN
  9. Deebo Samuel @TEN
  10. Jaylen Waddle @NO
  11. D.J. Moore vs. TB
  12. Amon-Ra St. Brown @ATL
  13. Marquise Brown @CIN
  14. CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS
  15. Tee Higgins vs. BAL
  16. Russell Gage vs. DET
  17. Gabriel Davis @NE
  18. Christian Kirk vs. IND
  19. Michael Pittman @ARI
  20. Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL
  21. Chase Claypool @KC
  22. Terry McLaurin @DAL
  23. Amari Cooper vs. WAS
  24. Brandon Aiyuk @TEN
  25. D.K. Metcalf vs. CHI
  26. DeVante Parker @NO
  27. Odell Beckham @MIN
  28. Jakobi Meyers vs. BUF
  29. A.J. Green vs. IND
  30. Mike Williams @HOU
  31. Jerry Jeudy @LV
  32. Jamison Crowder vs. JAX
  33. K.J. Osborn vs. LAR
  34. DeVonta Smith vs. NYG
  35. Van Jefferson @MIN
  36. Laviska Shenault @NYJ
  37. Mecole Hardman vs. PIT
  38. Michael Gallup vs. WAS
  39. Tyler Boyd vs. BAL
  40. Darnell Mooney @SEA
  41. Kenny Golladay @PHI
  42. Marvin Jones @NYJ
  43. Adam Humphries @DAL
  44. Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLE
  45. Rashod Bateman @CIN
  46. Laquon Treadwell @NYJ
  47. Donovan Peoples-Jones @GB

TE Preview

There was some talk last week around Fantasy Football circles about Travis Kelce no longer being the No. 1 tight end, so he went out and put together the sixth-best tight end performance in a single game since 2000, with 41.1 PPR points. Of course, it's not like Mark Andrews, the consensus No. 1 last week, was much worse – he had the 17th-best performance, with 35.6 points. And it's worth pausing here, as the Fantasy playoffs move to the semi-finals, to note just how big of an edge those elite tight ends have still been able to give you this season.

Of the 30-best tight end performances in a single game since 2000, six have happened this season: 

  • No. 5: Mark Andrews in Week 5 – 41.7 PPR points
  • No. 6: Travis Kelce in Week 15 – 41.1
  • No. 9: George Kittle in Week 13 – 39.6
  • No. 17: Mark Andrews in Week 15 – 35.6
  • No. 30: George Kittle in Week 14 – 34.1 

Talk about coming up big at the right time. Overall, this position remains incredibly weak, with just six or maybe seven players I feel good about starting right now, with a clear drop after No. 4, Rob Gronkowski. The elites at the position still remain arguably the biggest consistent edge you can find in Fantasy – though, unfortunately, Kelce's status for Week 16 is very much in doubt after he tested positive for COVID, shrinking the already shallow pool of reliable options at the worst time. 

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LANDOVER, MARYLAND - OCTOBER 25: Logan Thomas #82 of the Washington Football Team runs the ball against the Dallas Cowboys during the second quarter of the game at FedExField on October 25, 2020 in Landover, Maryland. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
  • Injuries: Travis Kelce (COVID), Darren Waller (knee), Pat Freiermuth (concussion), Tyler Higbee (COVID) and Austin Hooper (COVID)  
  • Number to know: 10 -- The Raiders have allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends this season, the second most in the NFL behind the Chargers.
  • Matchup that matters: Cole Kmet @SEA  (28th in points allowed to TE)
  • Streamer: "Kmet. Kmet has had intermittent high target games and has a great matchup against Washington."  
  • Top DFS play: "Rob Gronkowski. The loss of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans should lead to increased target share for Gronkowski."

 My Top 24

  1. Mark Andrews @CIN
  2. George Kittle @TEN
  3. Rob Gronkowski @CAR
  4. Kyle Pitts vs. DET
  5. Dallas Goedert vs. NYG
  6. Zach Ertz vs. IND
  7. Dawson Knox @NE
  8. Dalton Schultz vs. WAS
  9. Gerald Everett vs. CHI
  10. Tyler Higbee @MIN
  11. James O'Shaughnessy @NYJ
  12. Ricky Seals-Jones @DAL
  13. Foster Moreau vs. DEN
  14. Jared Cook @HOU
  15. Mike Gesicki @NO
  16. Tyler Conklin vs. LAR
  17. Hunter Henry vs. BUF
  18. Austin Hooper @GB
  19. Cole Kmet @SEA
  20. David Njoku @GB
  21. Evan Engram @PHI
  22. Noah Fant @LV
  23. Brevin Jordan vs. LAC
  24. C.J. Uzomah vs. BAL

Top-150 Flex rankings

  1. Jonathan Taylor @ARI
  2. Dalvin Cook vs. LAR
  3. Cooper Kupp @MIN
  4. Davante Adams vs. CLE
  5. Justin Jefferson vs. LAR
  6. Tyreek Hill vs. PIT
  7. Keenan Allen @HOU
  8. James Robinson @NYJ
  9. Stefon Diggs @NE
  10. Alvin Kamara vs. MIA
  11. Josh Jacobs vs. DEN
  12. Antonio Brown @CAR
  13. David Montgomery @SEA
  14. Najee Harris @KC
  15. Nick Chubb @GB
  16. Travis Kelce vs. PIT
  17. Ronald Jones @CAR
  18. Mark Andrews @CIN
  19. Antonio Gibson @DAL
  20. Diontae Johnson @KC
  21. Hunter Renfrow vs. DEN
  22. Deebo Samuel @TEN
  23. Ezekiel Elliott vs. WAS
  24. George Kittle @TEN
  25. Samaje Perine vs. BAL
  26. Javonte Williams @LV
  27. Cordarrelle Patterson vs. DET
  28. Brandin Cooks vs. LAC
  29. Aaron Jones vs. CLE
  30. Saquon Barkley @PHI
  31. Jaylen Waddle @NO
  32. D.J. Moore vs. TB
  33. Justin Jackson @HOU
  34. Myles Gaskin @NO
  35. Jeff Wilson @TEN
  36. Miles Sanders vs. NYG
  37. Amon-Ra St. Brown @ATL
  38. Marquise Brown @CIN
  39. CeeDee Lamb vs. WAS
  40. Tee Higgins vs. BAL
  41. Russell Gage vs. DET
  42. Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. PIT
  43. Devin Singletary @NE
  44. Rob Gronkowski @CAR
  45. Michael Carter vs. JAX
  46. AJ Dillon vs. CLE
  47. Melvin Gordon @LV
  48. Gabriel Davis @NE
  49. D'Onta Foreman vs. SF
  50. Sony Michel @MIN
  51. Rhamondre Stevenson vs. BUF
  52. Ameer Abdullah vs. TB
  53. Christian Kirk vs. IND
  54. Michael Pittman @ARI
  55. Ja'Marr Chase vs. BAL
  56. Chuba Hubbard vs. TB
  57. Chase Claypool @KC
  58. James Conner vs. IND
  59. Terry McLaurin @DAL
  60. Amari Cooper vs. WAS
  61. Chase Edmonds vs. IND
  62. Kyle Pitts vs. DET
  63. Brandon Aiyuk @TEN
  64. D.K. Metcalf vs. CHI
  65. DeVante Parker @NO
  66. Odell Beckham @MIN
  67. Jakobi Meyers vs. BUF
  68. A.J. Green vs. IND
  69. Mike Williams @HOU
  70. Jerry Jeudy @LV
  71. Rashaad Penny vs. CHI
  72. Jamison Crowder vs. JAX
  73. K.J. Osborn vs. LAR
  74. Craig Reynolds @ATL
  75. Dallas Goedert vs. NYG
  76. Zach Ertz vs. IND
  77. Devonta Freeman @CIN
  78. DeeJay Dallas vs. CHI
  79. Darrell Henderson @MIN
  80. DeVonta Smith vs. NYG
  81. Van Jefferson @MIN
  82. Dawson Knox @NE
  83. Laviska Shenault @NYJ
  84. Godwin Igwebuike @ATL
  85. Michael Gallup vs. WAS
  86. Tyler Boyd vs. BAL
  87. Darnell Mooney @SEA
  88. Darrel Williams vs. PIT
  89. Kenny Golladay @PHI
  90. Mecole Hardman vs. PIT
  91. Marvin Jones @NYJ
  92. Adam Humphries @DAL
  93. Brandon Bolden vs. BUF
  94. Dalton Schultz vs. WAS
  95. Le'Veon Bell @CAR
  96. Gerald Everett vs. CHI
  97. Mike Davis vs. DET
  98. Joshua Kelley @HOU
  99. Marquez Valdes-Scantling vs. CLE
  100. David Johnson vs. LAC
  101. Tyler Higbee @MIN
  102. James O'Shaughnessy @NYJ
  103. Rashod Bateman @CIN
  104. Nyheim Hines @ARI
  105. Corey Clement vs. WAS
  106. Jordan Howard vs. NYG
  107. Ricky Seals-Jones @DAL
  108. Laquon Treadwell @NYJ
  109. Donovan Peoples-Jones @GB
  110. Foster Moreau vs. DEN
  111. Tevin Coleman vs. JAX
  112. Bryan Edwards vs. DEN
  113. Duke Johnson @NO
  114. Jared Cook @HOU
  115. Rondale Moore vs. IND
  116. Tim Patrick @LV
  117. Devontae Booker @PHI
  118. Dontrell Hilliard vs. SF
  119. Mike Gesicki @NO
  120. Tyler Conklin vs. LAR
  121. Robby Anderson vs. TB
  122. Hunter Henry vs. BUF
  123. Kendrick Bourne vs. BUF
  124. Austin Hooper @GB
  125. Tyler Johnson @CAR
  126. Cole Kmet @SEA
  127. Olamide Zaccheaus vs. DET
  128. Scott Miller @CAR
  129. Albert Wilson @NO
  130. Mark Ingram vs. MIA
  131. Allen Lazard vs. CLE
  132. T.Y. Hilton @ARI
  133. Marquez Callaway vs. MIA
  134. Jeremy McNichols vs. SF
  135. Rex Burkhead vs. LAC
  136. Nelson Agholor vs. BUF
  137. David Njoku @GB
  138. Nico Collins vs. LAC
  139. Freddie Swain vs. CHI
  140. Evan Engram @PHI
  141. Noah Fant @LV
  142. Latavius Murray @CIN
  143. Brevin Jordan vs. LAC
  144. C.J. Uzomah vs. BAL
  145. Zay Jones vs. DEN
  146. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine vs. SF
  147. DeAndre Carter @DAL
  148. Courtland Sutton @LV
  149. Peyton Barber vs. DEN
  150. Josh Palmer @HOU