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Alabama and Ohio State emerge as betting co-favorites after Week 5
How have the CFP odds shifted after five weeks of the 2024 campaign?
Week 5 of the college football season featured the first mega-showdown of 2024 when the Georgia Bulldogs went to Tuscaloosa to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide. In addition, the Ole Miss Rebels fell from their top-10 perch in the polls with a home loss to the Kentucky Wildcats, several other ranked squads were pushed to the brink and the entertainment value of the slate was off the charts.
With even more intriguing college football action to come in Week 6, it is a good time to check in on how the betting odds are shifting through the lens of the National Championship picture. Each week, we monitor the market, painting a picture of the season with numbers moving all over the board, and that happens through both line moves and where many sportsbooks might be liable.
Most impactful line shifts
Three of the most impactful line moves this week come with high-profile programs. The Crimson Tide were +600 at BetMGM prior to last week’s win over the Bulldogs, but a dominant first half paved the way to a big-time victory. That saw Alabama’s odds drop to +375 and gave it co-favorite status in the current national title picture. Alabama now will face a pair of unranked opponents in the Vanderbilt Commodores and South Carolina Gamecocks before a blockbuster showdown against the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville on Oct. 19.
The other co-favorite is the Ohio State Buckeyes, with Ryan Day’s program matching Alabama at +375. The Buckeyes were +700 before last week, but Ohio State dominated the Michigan State Spartans 38-7 on the road. Ohio State’s next game also should display the team’s quality, as the stingy defense of the Iowa Hawkeyes arrives in Columbus for a Big Ten showdown this week.
While Alabama and Ohio State were rising in the pecking order, Georgia was falling by nature of its loss to Alabama. The Bulldogs did respond impressively to a disastrous first half, briefly taking the lead after a massive comeback, only to fall in the end. Georgia still has a clear path to the College Football Playoff if the program takes care of business, and that pursuit continues with a home date against the Auburn Tigers this Saturday.
Where BetMGM is liable
At this juncture, BetMGM is showing its most prominent liability to be three programs in the National Championship market. One such team is Ohio State, with the Buckeyes attracting attention early and often this season. The Buckeyes are the co-favorites, and no team has a higher percentage of BetMGM’s handle than its 17.2 percent.
From there, Tennessee is a liability for BetMGM, as the Volunteers remain unbeaten after a road win over the Oklahoma Sooners and an open date. Josh Heupel’s team opened as high as +5000 to win the national title over the summer, but an impressive start has pushed the Volunteers down to +1100 at BetMGM, where 8.4 percent of the tickets are on Tennessee to win it all.
Finally, the Miami Hurricanes continue to be a liability for BetMGM. The Hurricanes did not play their best football in Week 5, nearly losing to the Virginia Tech Hokies. However, Miami avoided disaster and will take a 5-0 record into its road contest against the California Golden Bears this weekend. Miami has attracted a whopping 10.3 percent of the handle at BetMGM despite only garnering 3.3 percent of the ticket volume, and the Hurricanes are +1800 right now after opening all the way at +7500 over the summer.