Best anytime touchdown bets for Eagles-Bucs: Can Saquon score today?

Injuries are playing a big role in this game, creating more opportunities for Saquon Barkley, Jahan Dotson and Rachaad White

In a rematch of last year’s NFC Wild Card game, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season. Despite the expected absence of both of their starting wide receivers, the Eagles are small betting favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook at -1.5, while the over/under is set at 41.5 total points.

After an impressive 2-0 start, the Buccaneers are looking to bounce back from an ugly loss at home against the Broncos last week. The Eagles are coming off a bounce-back win of their own last week against the Saints, but they suffered several injuries in that game that could have a significant impact this week. Star wide receiver DeVonta Smith and All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson both suffered concussions and, while Johnson is questionable to play, Smith will miss Week 4. Star wide receiver A.J. Brown has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and was ruled out for this game on Saturday.

That removes two of the most likely players on the Eagles to score a touchdown in this game, but there are still plenty of good options for betting on anytime touchdowns. In this article, we’ll discuss the anytime touchdown prop bets we like the most in this matchup based on the current odds. We’ve done some of the work for you by finding the most favorable betting odds for each of these bets from across all of the best online sportsbooks.

Jahan Dotson (+215, DraftKings)

These odds have come down at DraftKings Sportsbook since Brown and Smith have been ruled out, but Dotson is still a solid bet to score. 

Dotson has gotten off to a slow start with the Eagles after they acquired him from the Washington Commanders right before the start of the season. Jalen Hurts has targeted him only five times in three games, which is half the number of targets that A.J. Brown got in just the one game he has played. Hurts has needed time to develop chemistry with new pass catchers in the past and tends to rely more on the targets with whom he is familiar and trusts. He might not have that luxury this week with both Brown and Smith out, not to mention slot receiver and punt returner Britain Covey (7 targets), who also landed on IR this week. 

Dotson may not be getting the ball much yet, but he has been on the field and running routes at a high rate, and he’s been getting open. Perhaps defenses are ignoring him given the other weapons on this offense, but he has certainly had opportunities, including in the red zone. Back in Washington, and even going back to his college days at Penn State, Dotson has been a reliable target in the red zone. As a rookie, he had a team-high five touchdown catches in the red zone, and he had two more last season.

Mostly out of necessity, Dotson is going to get more passes thrown his way this week, and we like his chances to turn one of those opportunities into a touchdown.

Saquon Barkley (-135, DraftKings)

We normally try to avoid anytime touchdown bets at less than even money given how unpredictable touchdown scoring can be from week to week, but in this case even the -135 odds are a solid value. Barkley has been unstoppable running behind the Eagles’ elite offensive line this season. He is leading the league in rushing with 117 yards per game on a career-high 5.6 yards per attempt. He is also tied for the league lead in touchdowns with five in three games. 

The concern with betting on an anytime touchdown for any Eagles running back the last few years has been the potential for Jalen Hurts to vulture touchdowns on the goal line with the Eagles’ patented “tush push” play. (On that note, we also like Hurts’ anytime TD odds at +125 at DraftKings.) But that has not been a problem so far for Barkley, who has managed to score from 2, 4, and 11 yards out already this season. He is converting his red zone rush attempts into touchdowns at a much higher rate than any Eagles running back of the last few years. 

The matchup with the Bucs also should be a good one for Barkley. Tampa Bay is 25th in rushing defense so far this season (137.7 yards per game) and is allowing 4.9 yards per carry (26th). They have also allowed the second-most rushing TDs so far this season (6). Injuries are part of the reason, as both starting defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey have missed games and both remain questionable this week.

Dotson may be the player who benefits most from the expected absence of Smith and Brown, but Barkley will also benefit. He is going to be the centerpiece of this offense even more than he already was, and that makes his -135 odds on an anytime touchdown a great value. 

Rachaad White (+130, bet365)

On the other side of this matchup, our favorite touchdown scorer to bet on is the Bucs’ starting running back Rachaad White. White has been downgraded to questionable with an illness. As of this writing, both White has +130 odds at bet365 Sportsbook, but be sure to monitor his status before kickoff.

Another reason to like this pick is the Eagles’ run defense, which has struggled against teams that rely heavily on 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) such as the Packers and Falcons. Against that alignment, the Eagles primarily use their nickel package with five defensive backs, four defensive linemen and two linebackers. That personnel group has been much less effective against the run than their base defense (five DL, two LBs) or their 40 personnel group (six DL, one LB). The Saints ran a very low percentage of 11 personnel last week, and the Eagles were able to stay in their base defense for most of the game. As a result, they were much more effective at stopping Alvin Kamara than they were against Josh Jacobs and Bijan Robinson in the previous two games.

The Buccaneers use 11 personnel at one of the highest rates in the league, which is going to benefit Rachaad White in this matchup. Given that schematic nuance and the expected volume that White could see this week, he has a very good chance to score his first touchdown of the season.