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Betting preview, stats and best bets for Chiefs vs. 49ers in Week 7
Who will win this rematch of last year’s Super Bowl… and possibly a preview of this year’s?
| WHO | Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers |
| WHEN | Sunday, October 20, 2024 at 4:25pm ET |
| WHERE | Levi’s Stadium | Santa Clara, California |
| HOW | FOX |
The game of the week in Week 7 of the NFL is undoubtedly the Super Bowl rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers. After last year’s thrilling championship overtime triumph by the Chiefs, these teams entered the 2024 season as the top two teams in most NFL power rankings. And though the 49ers struggled a bit in the first month of the season, both teams will be rested and ready for what could be a preview of Super Bowl LIX.
Here are the current betting odds for Chiefs vs. 49ers at some of the best online sportsbooks. These odds are current as of the most recent update of this article.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs spread | +1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-108) | +1.5 (-110) |
| 49ers spread | -1.5 (-110) | -1 (-112) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs moneyline | +108 | +105 | +105 |
| 49ers moneyline | -126 | -125 | -125 |
| Over | Over 47.5 (-105) | Over 47 (-110) | Over 47 (-110) |
| Under | Under 47.5 (-115) | Under 47 (-110) | Under 47 (-110) |
Why bet on the Chiefs
The Chiefs are one of just two remaining undefeated teams this season, and by the time this game kicks off they may be the only one if the Lions knock off the Vikings earlier in the day. In fact, dating back to last season, the Chiefs have now won eleven consecutive games.
Head coach Andy Reid is famous for his record following a bye, going 21-3 in the first regular-season game after the bye. Yes, Reid is a good coach in all circumstances, but his winning percentage after a bye (.875) is still significantly better than in all other regular season games (.632). (This trend also holds in the postseason, where Reid has a .769 winning percentage coming off a bye vs. a .552 winning percentage with regular rest.) In addition, Reid and Patrick Mahomes are 4-0 against the 49ers (and also 4-0 against the spread), with two of those wins coming in the regular season and the other two in Super Bowls.
The Chiefs started the season with several close wins, none of them by more than seven points. But their most recent victory was their most impressive of the season. Facing a Saints team that came into the game with the best point differential in the league, the Chiefs dominated from beginning to end on both sides of the ball, finishing with more than double the number of yards, double the first downs, and nearly double the time of possession. Patrick Mahomes set season highs in passing yards and Total QBR. Travis Kelce set a season high in receptions, Kareem Hunt had the team’s first 100-yard rushing game of the season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster set a team season high in receiving yards.
The Chiefs defense has been elite all season, allowing the sixth-fewest points per game, carrying the team through the first month of the season when the offense was inconsistent. But against the Saints, the offense put everything together for a team win. Now, with Reid having a bye week to work on acclimating the offense to playing without still-injured stars Rashee Rice and Isiah Pacheco, expect the Chiefs offense to look even more like its old self.
Why bet on the 49ers
The 49ers opened the season with an impressive beatdown of the Jets but did not look like themselves in the next four games, going 1-3, with a loss against the undefeated Vikings and shocking last-second divisional setbacks at the hands of the Rams and Cardinals, in both of which they blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads.
Superstar running back Christian McCaffrey has yet to play this season due to an injured Achilles, and star offensive weapon Deebo Samuel also missed time with a calf injury. But in their most recent game, the 49ers had their most complete performance since Week 1, with an impressive victory in Seattle. Samuel is finally back to 100%, and although McCaffrey’s replacement Jordan Mason sprained his AC joint, he is expected to be healthy enough to play against the Chiefs.
Through all the injuries to his weapons, quarterback Brock Purdy has been a consistent weapon himself. No longer just a “system quarterback”, Purdy has actually outplayed Mahomes this year. He is second in the league in passing yards and yards per attempt, and thus the 49ers have the No. 2 offense in the NFL this year despite the injuries.
Although the Chiefs are 5-0 and the 49ers are only 3-3, the advanced stats see the teams as basically even. DVOA gives a slight edge to the Chiefs (fourth at 22.8%) over the 49ers (fifth at 21.8%). By EPA, the 49ers are actually the slightly better team: the 49ers are eighth in net EPA at 0.13, compared to 11th for the Chiefs at 0.11. The biggest difference is the Chiefs’ pass defense, which is ranked 16th, the weakest unit on either side of the ball for either team.
Unlike the Chiefs, who are still missing their top wideout in Rice, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan will have all his receiving weapons available this week, with a fully healthy Deebo Samuel alongside Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. After this week’s date with the league’s second-ranked offense, the Chiefs pass defense might rank even lower than 16th in EPA/play.
Best bet for Chiefs vs. 49ers: 49ers win by 11-15 points: (+950, FanDuel)
The 49ers offense projects to be able to move the ball against the Kansas City defense on Sunday. It’s less projectable that the Chiefs’ inconsistent offense will be able to do the same against the San Francisco defense, making the over/under less appealing.
If one is confident that the 49ers are going to score and the Chiefs won’t, betting the 49ers makes sense. But rather than just taking the 49ers against the spread or on the money line, it may be worth taking a shot on the 49ers to win by 11-15 points, which FanDuel Sportsbook is offering at +950 odds.
The 49ers have faced two AFC opponents so far this season, and they won those games by 13 and 17 points. If they can do that a third time, this bet will bring big rewards.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Chiefs 17