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Can Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?
A stout defense and manageable schedule work in their favor
“We’ve been here before.”
-Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman after losing to Northern Illinois
That was an indictment of Freeman. His teams shouldn’t lose so often to small-conference schools.
But he raised the point for a reason: After losing to Marshall in 2022, the Fighting Irish responded well. They went 9-2 the rest of the way with four wins over teams ranked at the time, including a blowout of a then-No. 5 Clemson team that still finished No. 13.
Left for dead, Notre Dame’s 2024 season didn’t end Sept. 7 with a loss to Northern Illinois. In fact, the Fighting Irish, currently ranked No. 16, are still in prime position to make the 12-team College Football Playoff. Their odds to make the playoff are +190 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Notre Dame has already bounced back with thrashings of Purdue (66-7) and Miami (Ohio) (28-3). Those wins against overmatched teams didn’t reveal much. A real test will come Saturday against No. 15 Louisville. The Fighting Irish are 6.5-point home favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The rest of the Notre Dame schedule features no ranked teams – Stanford, Georgia Tech, Navy, Florida State, Virginia and Army – until No. 13 USC in the season finale. As Michigan showed last week, USC is still susceptible to getting punched in the mouth by physical teams like the Irish. Remember, Notre Dame clobbered USC 48-20 last year, and that was a Trojans team with Caleb Williams.
The takeaway: Notre Dame might even be able to get away with a second loss, especially early, and still make the CFP. The Fighting Irish will get every benefit of the doubt.
Even after losing to Northern Illinois, Notre Dame was still ranked ahead of undefeated Northern Illinois.
In the last three years, the CFP selection committee has mostly followed a clear formula in ranking major programs (Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12 and Notre Dame) entering conference title games – all the undefeated teams then all the 1-loss teams then all the 2-loss teams.
The big exception is Florida State last season, which as an ACC team went undefeated and was left out of the CFP behind one-loss Texas and two-loss Alabama.
If teams enter a season even moderately hyped and don’t lose too often, the committee doesn’t often get hung up on a team’s weak schedule. Only surprise teams sometimes don’t get the same credit.
Notre Dame entered this season No. 7 in both polls. Add Notre Dame’s prestige and large TV audience, and the committee will be looking for reasons to get the Fighting Irish into the playoffs.
The argument a couple weeks ago: A team that lost to Northern Illinois isn’t good enough to go 11-1 or even 10-2. But it’s not too late for Notre Dame to stop a bad day from turning into a bad season.