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College football futures: Key line shifts, contenders rising
Texas’ hot start has shifted their CFP Playoff odds, while Tennessee is one of BetMGM’s biggest liabilities.
The 2024 college football season is less than one month old, but as always, the landscape is shifting rapidly. With the 12-team playoff launching this year, there was uncertainty with the futures market before the campaign even began, and unexpected results in the first two-plus weeks have created even more chaos.
To that end, lines are moving when it comes to College Football Playoff futures, with a couple of programs making real noise.
Most impactful line shifts
The two favorites to win the national title according to BetMGM are Georgia and Ohio State, with both programs looking quite impressive to begin the season. On the other side, legacy programs such as Michigan and Notre Dame suffered ugly losses to sink their title odds. However, the most impactful line movement revolves around two potential contenders with notable early results.
Texas opened at +1000 over the summer and was +850 to win the title before Week 1. After a 52-0 beatdown of Colorado State in the opener and an utterly dominant victory over Michigan in Ann Arbor, the Longhorns are now down to +550 and facing three consecutive home games and a neutral-site contest against Oklahoma before a giant showdown against Georgia on Oct. 19. The Longhorns’ victory against Michigan is on the short list of most impactful results of the young college football season, and Texas returns a talented roster that bettors are clearly attracted to at this early stage.
Elsewhere, Tennessee opened at +5000 in the offseason and dropped to +3500 before the program’s season opener against Chattanooga. The Volunteers outscored Chattanooga and previously ranked NC State by a combined score of 120-13, blowing away the competition on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is averaging more than 10 yards per pass attempt this season, and the Volunteers land in the top five nationally in points per game (60.0) and total yards per game (589.0). That level of stellar performance pushes Josh Heupel’s program to +2200 and into the top 10 when it comes to most likely teams to win it all.
Where BetMGM is liable
At this early stage, there are three programs attracting a great deal of betting attention and creating liability for BetMGM. One is the aforementioned Tennessee, with the Volunteers receiving 4.7% of the handle with their odds dropping to +2200. Tennessee has a high-profile road game against Oklahoma on Sept. 21, and if the Volunteers can emerge from Norman at 4-0 the sky’s the limit.
Miami has the seventh-best odds to win the title at BetMGM, sitting at +2000 after two games. The Hurricanes were as high as +7500 over the summer, with a drop to +3000 before the season opener and continued progress following a 2-0 start. Highly touted quarterback Cam Ward led a blowout win over Florida in Week 1 and is averaging more than 340 passing yards per game. Ward is also completing 75.4% of his passes with six touchdowns and only one interception. Miami will be heavily favored in each game on its schedule until a road trip to Louisville on Oct. 19. The Hurricanes have the third-highest handle of any program at BetMGM, receiving 11.5% of the money.
Finally, Ohio State is a glaring liability for BetMGM. Even as the Buckeyes were among the preseason favorites to win it all, Ohio State has blown away the early competition, defeating Akron and Western Michigan by a combined score of 108-6. Five-star freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is producing considerable buzz as he steps into the void left by Marvin Harrison Jr. Smith has 211 receiving yards and three touchdowns in two games, pairing well with transfer quarterback Will Howard and a potentially dominant running game.
Though the Buckeyes have come up short against Michigan in three straight years, coach Ryan Day’s roster is loaded once again and BetMGM currently has the Buckeyes at +375 to win it all, trailing only Georgia. Ohio State also has the most handle of any program at 19.3%, and the Buckeyes could benefit from an apparent downtrend for the Wolverines at the top of the Big Ten.