College Football Playoff 2024 odds shift after Week 4 action

Ohio State and Tennessee are two of BetMGM’s biggest potential liabilities

Most of the college football world is one-third of the way through its regular season schedule, with four weeks of full action in the books. The last two weeks have been largely void of substantial upsets, particularly at the top of the sport, but big-time matchups are on the horizon. In fact, two of the top teams in the country are scheduled to meet on Saturday in Tuscaloosa when the Alabama Crimson Tide welcome the Georgia Bulldogs to town for an SEC showdown.

Before that contest and other titanic matchups, the National Championship futures market continues to move on a weekly basis, telling an interesting story about the season to date.

Most impactful line shifts

At BetMGM, Georgia and Ohio State are the co-favorites to win the national title. Notably, that does not mirror the current poll numbers, with Texas actually at the top of the AP poll and sitting at No. 2 in the coaches poll. The Bulldogs and Buckeyes did open as two of the top three teams over the summer and, to this point, neither has provided a substantial reason for a drop. Georgia was tested to its limit by Kentucky, but Ohio State has been dominant against a relatively friendly early schedule.

Three teams enjoyed positive bumps in the betting market after last week’s action. As noted, Texas is in the top two of both polls, with the Longhorns also moving from +550 last week to +500 this week. That places Steve Sarkisian’s club firmly in the No. 3 spot behind Georgia and Alabama, and the Longhorns will play their first-ever SEC game on Saturday when they take on the struggling Mississippi State Bulldogs. 

Elsewhere, Alabama moved from +900 to +800 in the national title market in advance of the blockbuster game against Georgia. The Crimson Tide have taken 6.1% of tickets and 6.4% of the national title handle at BetMGM, and new head coach Kalen DeBoer faces his first marquee tilt on Saturday. 

Finally, Tennessee made quite a statement a week ago, and the market noticed. The Volunteers moved from +1600 to +1200 at BetMGM to claim the title, which isn’t a surprise after the 25-15 road win over a ranked Oklahoma team in Norman. Tennessee’s victory may have been even more lopsided than the final score indicates, and the performance was notable in that Tennessee’s defense more than held up its end of the bargain after its high-flying offense drew the majority of early-season attention in Knoxville. There is considerable energy behind Tennessee right now, and the Volunteers have moved from +5000 over the summer to +3500 before the season opener, and now all the way to +1200 by the end of September.

Where BetMGM is liable

BetMGM has its largest national title liability with three programs through four weeks of the season. One team is Tennessee, with the Vols taking enough action to seriously shift their odds, as noted above. After three utterly dominant games, Tennessee passed its first road test with flying colors, and the Volunteers now enjoy a bye week before a road trip to Arkansas. Josh Heupel’s team is taking 7.9% of the tickets and 6.6% of the total BetMGM handle at this juncture, and the Volunteers will be clear betting favorites in all but two remaining games on their regular season schedule.

The Ohio State Buckeyes are also a potential liability at BetMGM through the first month of the season. Unlike most programs, Ohio State has played only three games, but the Buckeyes have scored 49 points or more and allowed 14 points or fewer in each contest. The schedule does increase in difficulty beginning with a road trip to East Lansing this week to face the Michigan State Spartans, but Ohio State is also the betting favorite to win the Big Ten. At BetMGM, Ohio State has the highest volume of tickets (16.0%) and the highest betting handle (17.9%) of any program on the board, and at +350 to win the national title, the attention doesn’t seem to be slowing down on Ryan Day’s team.

While Ohio State and Tennessee both land near the top of the board in the current national title market, another program is generating liability for BetMGM. The Miami Hurricanes are 4-0 with each win coming in lopsided fashion. Miami began the campaign with a statement win over the Florida Gators before comfortable victories over Florida A&M, Ball State, and USF in succession. The Hurricanes have yet to face a ranked opponent, but transfer quarterback Cam Ward is near the top of the Heisman Trophy odds board, and Miami has a favorable setup in the ACC. The Hurricanes are currently +1800 to win the national title at BetMGM after reaching as high as +7500 over the summer. Despite only 3.2% of the tickets being on the Hurricanes at BetMGM, a whopping 10.7% of the handle is on Miami, trailing only Ohio State and Georgia. Miami’s next test will be a home game against Virginia Tech before high-profile road trips to California and Louisville.