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DraftKings most popular Super Bowl futures bets since Week 1
Since the Chiefs and Ravens kicked off the NFL season last Thursday, the team that has attracted the most money on Super Bowl futures bets at DraftKings is the Houston Texans.
The first week of the NFL season is in the books, and DraftKings Sportsbook is seeing some movement in the NFL Super Bowl futures betting market. Since the season officially kicked off with the Chiefs beating the Ravens on Thursday night, no team has attracted more money on Super Bowl futures bets than the Houston Texans, according to data provided by DraftKings.
The Texans rank first in terms of handle at DraftKings since the start of the season, but they are outside of the top five in terms of the number of bets, which means they are getting some large wagers (possibly from sharp bettors) placed on them to win the Super Bowl. The Kansas City Chiefs rank first in terms of bets since the start of the season. They have also attracted the most bets and the highest percentage of the handle overall in the Super Bowl futures market (including all bets placed before the season began).
Here is the full ranking of the top five most-bet Super Bowl winner futures at DraftKings since the start of the season. For comparison, we have also included DraftKings’ data on the overall Super Bowl winner futures betting market. This data is current as of Monday, September 9, before the first Monday Night Football game of the season.
| Most-bet Super Bowl winner futures (since start of season) | Super Bowl winner futures splits (overall) | |||
| Rank | By handle | By bets | By handle | By bets |
| 1 | Houston Texans | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs (16%) | Kansas City Chiefs (17%) |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions (13%) | Detroit Lions (10%) |
| 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | Baltimore Ravens | Philadelphia Eagles (10%) | Philadelphia Eagles (9%) |
| 4 | Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | Baltimore Ravens (8%) | Baltimore Ravens (9%) |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | New York Jets | Houston Texans (7%) | San Francisco 49ers (8%) |
Let’s take a closer look at the five teams that have generated the highest handle on Super Bowl winner futures bets since the start of the season. We’ll discuss their Week 1 performance and what means for their current playoff outlook, as well as any other noteworthy futures betting data for each team.
No. 1 – Houston Texans
The Texans were one of the most aggressive teams in free agency and the trade market this offseason, and their acquisitions made an immediate impact in Week 1. The splashiest move was trading for former Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who caught all six of his targets and scored two touchdowns against the Colts, including what proved to be the game-winner. But the biggest standout was free agent running back Joe Mixon, who led the NFL with 159 rushing yards and 30 carries (5.3 yards per carry) in Week 1.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik is committed to establishing the run, and he did so almost to a fault at times last season with Devin Singletary. The Texans hoped that Mixon would give them a more efficient run game that would take some pressure off of star quarterback C.J. Stroud. That worked out beautifully in Week 1, albeit against a below-average Colts run defense. At 28 years old, Mixon will not be able to handle such a heavy workload every week, but it was very encouraging to see the early impact he had on the Texans’ offense.
Despite the strong performance, it’s unlikely that their Week 1 performance alone is the reason that the Texans have generated the highest handle on Super Bowl-winner futures bets since Thursday. It likely has more to do with their current Super Bowl odds, which are +1300 at DraftKings. Those are the sixth-highest odds in the NFL behind the Chiefs (+475), 49ers (+600), Lions (+1000), Eagles (+1000) and Ravens (+1200). The Texans arguably look better than the sixth-best team in the NFL right now, and they are ranked that way in several power rankings, so bettors are viewing them as the best value bet on the board so far this season.
Interestingly, the Texans are just fifth in terms of handle and bets to win the AFC since the start of the season, which runs counter to the heavy action on them to win the Super Bowl. Including preseason bets, they are still second overall in the AFC Winner futures market.
| Most-bet AFC winner futures (since start of season) | AFC winner futures splits (overall) | |||
| Rank | By handle | By bets | By handle | By bets |
| 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs (29%) | Kansas City Chiefs (34%) |
| 2 | New York Jets | Baltimore Ravens | Houston Texans (12%) | Houston Texans (13%) |
| 3 | Baltimore Ravens | New York Jets | New York Jets (11%) | Baltimore Ravens (12%) |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | Baltimore Ravens (10%) | Cincinnati Bengals (11%) |
| 5 | Houston Texans | Houston Texans | Miami Dolphins (10%) | New York Jets (10%) |
No. 2 – Detroit Lions
The Lions’ biggest weakness in 2023 was their pass defense, which ranked 25th in both EPA per play and success rate, and 16th in DVOA. They made two big moves this offseason to help improve that. First, they traded a 2024 third-round draft pick to the Buccaneers for cornerback Carlton Davis III. Then they used their first-round pick (No. 24 overall) to draft Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold, who some considered the best defensive back in the draft.
While those moves should help them significantly throughout the season, the early results from Week 1 were less than promising. Detroit had no answers for Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who racked up 14 catches for 110 yards and a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Still, the Lions were able to lean on their powerful ground attack which was such a huge part of their success last season. They ran the ball on eight of their nine plays on their game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.
The Lions’ Week 1 performance should provide confidence for all the bettors that have made them the second-most popular Super Bowl futures bet. Detroit has garnered the second-most bets and the second-biggest handle on Super Bowl futures bets at DraftKings, both during the preseason and since the start of the season. They are also overwhelmingly the most popular bet to win the NFC and reach the Super Bowl, with 31% of the handle and 26% of the bets in the NFC Winner futures market.
| Most-bet NFC winner futures (Since start of season) | NFC winner futures splits (overall) | |||
| Rank | By handle | By bets | By handle | By bets |
| 1 | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions (31%) | Detroit Lions (26%) |
| 2 | Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay Packers | Philadelphia Eagles (17%) | San Francisco 49ers (23%) |
| 3 | Green Bay Packers | Philadelphia Eagles | Green Bay Packers (12%) | Philadelphia Eagles (17%) |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers (10%) | Green Bay Packers (12%) |
| 5 | San Francisco 49ers | Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears (9%) | Chicago Bears (6%) |
No. 3 – Kansas City Chiefs
As the Super Bowl favorites with +475 odds, the Chiefs have received the biggest handle and the most bets overall in the DraftKings Super Bowl futures market. They have continued to receive the most bets since the season began, but they have generated just the third-highest handle on those bets, behind the Texans and Lions.
This data suggests that most bettors, and especially casual bettors, continue to bet on the Chiefs, but the two-time reigning champs are not receiving the larger bets that the Texans and Lions are receiving. Bettors placing large wagers could be looking for a bigger payday with teams that have longer odds than the Super Bowl favorites. They also could simply be fading the possibility of the Chiefs winning three consecutive Super Bowls, something neither the Tom Brady-led Patriots nor any other team in NFL history has ever accomplished.
After just one game, the Chiefs look like they are on a mission to make history. Patrick Mahomes may have the best set of offensive weapons he has ever had in his career, including the teams with Tyreek Hill. Rookie speedster Xavier Worthy made an immediate impact at wide receiver, not only with his two explosive touchdowns but also with how his speed threat creates opportunities for the rest of the offense.
After the game, Mahomes said of Worthy: “When he’s out there, they’re playing shell coverages. It’s getting guys like [Travis Kelce] and [Rashee Rice] open underneath, and that’s what’s so great about this offense is we’re able to do all of that, and that’s when we’re at our best.” As Mahomes also pointed out, the Chiefs’ offense will only become more unguardable once they get back their other speedy offseason acquisition, wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.
No. 4 – Philadelphia Eagles
Based on the betting activity in futures markets, the sports betting community seems to have no reservations about the Eagles’ late-season collapse in 2023 carrying over into 2024. In terms of both handle and tickets, the Eagles are the third-most popular team overall in DraftKings Super Bowl futures betting, and the fourth-most popular team in both categories since the season started.
Especially considering how last season ended, the Eagles’ 2024 season could not have started worse. Jalen Hurts made a terrible decision on his second pass attempt of the season, which led to an interception. On their next possession, a miscommunication with center Cam Jurgens, who is replacing franchise legend Jason Kelce, led to an errant snap and another turnover.
The flip side of those two early turnovers is that they shined a light on what looks like an improved defense under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The Packers’ high-powered offense had two straight possessions starting inside the red zone, and the Eagles’ defense held them to a field goal each time. The defense gave up some explosive plays to Jordan Love, Jayden Reed and Josh Jacobs later in the game, but overall it looked like a much more competent unit than the one that ended last season.
Saquon Barkley looked unstoppable in his first game as an Eagle, gaining 109 yards on 4.5 yards per carry while scoring three touchdowns. If the defense can just be average this season, the Eagles’ offense should be good enough to keep them near the top of the Super Bowl odds for most of the season. It also helps that they have already banked a win against one of the toughest opponents on their schedule, which is expected to be one of the easiest schedules in the league this season.
No. 5 – Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are the only team on this list that lost in Week 1, but bettors are not faulting them for losing to the reigning champs on the road. Baltimore has received the fourth-most bets and the fourth-biggest handle overall on Super Bowl futures bets at DraftKings, and they have stayed in the top five of both categories since the season started.
By the time this data was reported, bettors had more time to react to the Ravens’ first game than any other team, alongside the Chiefs. They still bet more money on Baltimore than on all but four other teams, and placed more bets on Baltimore than on all but two other clubs.
There were some causes for concern in the Ravens’ first game. The offensive line struggled to protect Lamar Jackson, and the pass rush struggled to generate much pressure on Mahomes. But Jackson looked great, especially with his legs, and that’s the most important early takeaway for the Ravens. This offseason, Jackson reportedly focused on losing weight and getting leaner to improve his speed and agility, and it showed in the way he moved against the Chiefs.
Ultimately, the Ravens were an Isaiah Likely toenail away from sending the game to overtime or giving themselves an opportunity to win the game on a two-point conversion. That is closer than they came against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last year. This season will be defined by making plays like that when this year’s playoffs come around.