Five college football favorites who could lose in Week 4

Can two Florida schools snap out of their slides, or will the Seminoles and Gators lose as favorites?

Florida State has been favored in all three of its games this season and lost them all. That can’t continue. Either the Seminoles will win or stop being favored at sportsbooks.

But they could thread the needle yet again.

Here are some college football betting favorites who could lose outright in Week 4:

Florida State (-2.5, Caesars Sportsbook) vs. California

For the fourth straight game, Florida State has the unfortunate task of facing another less-heralded team that is good enough to beat the Seminoles. After losing to Georgia Tech, Boston College and Memphis, Florida State is facing a crisis of confidence just when it takes on a team gaining belief in itself.

Cal is 3-0 and has already proven it can win at this level, beating Auburn on the road. The Golden Bears defense is humming again. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza can challenge the Seminoles on the ground, a weakness for them. Star Cal running back Jaydn Ott is probable.

If Florida State’s pass rush gets loose, the game could swing the other way. But the Seminoles haven’t been able to execute that game plan yet. Why should Saturday suddenly be different? The Golden Bears certainly have the ability to cover this Caesars line.

Florida (-6.5, FanDuel Sportsbook) at Mississippi State

Just a week-and-a-half after a fired-up Billy Napier rebuked criticism from “what some guy in his basement is saying in rural central Florida on social media,” the Florida coach sounded defeated as he addressed boos during a loss to Texas A&M. “I have no excuse,” Napier said. “I have no negative comment about that. Ultimately, when you play a certain way in this arena, you’re going to be criticized… I probably would have done the same thing.”

Florida has lost its fight and will soon lose its coach. Everyone believes Napier’s firing is imminent.

Under those circumstances, the Gators must play a game. How on earth could they bring proper focus and intensity to Starkville? They already looked despondent against Miami and Texas A&M.

Auburn (-3, BetMGM) vs. Arkansas

The most impressive result for either of these teams is the Razorbacks’ double-overtime loss to No. 14 Oklahoma State. Quarterback Taylen Green, running back Ja’Quinden Jackson and wide receiver Andrew Armstrong have hit the ground running in offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino’s offense.

Arkansas coach Sam Pittman has done a relatively good job of preparing his team for SEC road games, including a win at Auburn in 2022 and a narrow loss there in 2020, making this field goal line at BetMGM fathomable.

The Razorbacks defense isn’t great. But it’ll be a big step up for Auburn quarterback Hank Brown, who made his first start in a lopsided win over lowly New Mexico last week.

Syracuse (-8.5, DraftKings Sportsbook) vs. Stanford

Syracuse’s crowning achievement so far this season is narrowly beating the team (Georgia Tech) that beat Florida State by less than every other Seminole opponent has.

The Orange’s win over the then-ranked Yellowjackets doesn’t look nearly as impressive as we gain context on everyone.

Syracuse’s offense is solid behind quarterback Kyle McCord, running back LeQuint Allen and tight end Oronde Gadsden II. But the Orange defense has been shaky. That DraftKings (and most sportsbooks) has them as a favorite of more than a touchdown is surprising.

All three of Stanford’s wins last year were on the road. Though this cross-country trip will be a different challenge for the new ACC member, the Cardinal are at least coming off a rout of Cal Poly and a bye.

Texas Tech (-3.5, FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Arizona State

Arizona State is playing its second straight game in Texas, having beat Texas State last week. It’s unclear that this will be a step up in competition.

Though Texas State is in the Sun Belt, the Bobcats are dangerous and were fired-up for a high-profile Thursday night matchup. The Sun Devils came back to win, a nice follow-up to getting up big then holding on against Mississippi State the week prior. Arizona State is showing new levels of poise in Kenny Dillingham’s second season. In Sam Leavitt, Dillingham has a quarterback to execute his offense, and running back Cameron Skattebo has starred.

Texas Tech’s defense has been porous, and its offense has been up-and-down. Granted, the Red Raiders have been steadier with running back Tahj Brooks healthy. But this defense cannot be trusted.