Content on this page may include affiliate links. If you click and sign up/place a wager, we may receive compensation at no cost to you.
Louisville vs. Notre Dame: Odds, predictions and best bets
Check out the latest betting odds and best bets for the Louisville vs. Notre Dame match-up in Week 5 of the college football season
| WHO | No. 15 Louisville Cardinals at No. 16 Notre Dame Fighting Irish |
|---|---|
| WHEN | Saturday, September 28th, 2024 at 3:30 P.M. EST |
| WHERE | Notre Dame Stadium | Notre Dame, Indiana |
| HOW | Peacock |
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish already put a blemish on their resume when they lost at home to Northern Illinois as a 28-point favorite. If they want to consider themselves a true contender for the 12-team College Football Playoff when December comes around, they likely can’t afford another slip-up. They’ve outscored Miami-Ohio and Purdue by a combined margin of 94-10 since their loss, but the quality of competition ratchets up several notches in Week 5 when the 3-0 Louisville Cardinals come to town.
Louisville is coming off a season that saw them play in the ACC Championship Game. During their impressive campaign, they defeated Notre Dame by a score of 33-20 on the Cardinals’ home field. This year, they make the trip to South Bend, and oddsmakers don’t expect as favorable a result. Even so, Louisville is 3-0 to open the season and looked impressive defeating Georgia Tech last weekend.
In the table below, you’ll find the current betting odds for this weekend’s Louisville vs. Notre Dame matchup at some of the top online sportsbooks.
| Market | FanDuel | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND Spread | -6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-112) | -6.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-110) |
| LOU Spread | +6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-108) | +6.5 (-110) | +6.5 (-110) |
| ND Moneyline | -230 | -238 | -225 | -240 |
| LOU Moneyline | +188 | +195 | +185 | +196 |
| Over | Over 45.5 (-105) | Over 45 (-108) | Over 45.5 (-105) | Over 45 (-110) |
| Under | Under 45.5 (-115) | Under 45 (-112) | Under 45.5 (-115) | Under 45 (-110) |
Why to bet on Notre Dame
Notre Dame enters this game as a decent-size home favorite. If this game goes according to plan for the home team, it’ll likely be because they successfully executed in following a rather simple formula.
Notre Dame has better athletes than Louisville, and that’s especially true on the offensive and defensive lines. If Notre Dame sees success on Saturday, it’s likely because their offensive line is moving defenders and creating wide lanes for their running game.
On the flipside, they need their defensive line to overpower the Louisville offensive line and wreak havoc on Cardinals QB Tyler Shough, taking away his time in the pocket. They’ll also need to keep Louisville in check on the ground. On paper, the Fighting Irish have the advantage in the trenches. If they use that effectively, they’ll likely be able to control the game on their home field and pull away late.
Why to bet on Louisville
For Louisville, there are a bunch of reasons to believe they can head into South Bend and pull off an upset.
First and foremost, they beat this very team last season. Sure, there have been some changes to the rosters and winning on the road is certainly more difficult than winning at home, but the Cardinals at least know they are more than capable of playing with this team.
While Louisville might not have the athletes of Notre Dame, this is a team that ranks 28th in the country in run defense. While the quality of competition might not be the highest, it’s still an impressive ranking. If Louisville can control Notre Dame on the ground, the Fighting Irish haven’t really shown themselves to be a dangerous team through the air.
Jeff Brohm has quickly rebuilt the Louisville program and has shown himself to be one of the better in-game play callers in the sport. He can dial up a play that turns this game on its side.
Best bet for Louisville vs. Notre Dame: Louisville +6.5 (-110, FanDuel)
We lean toward the underdog in this spot, and a large part of the reason is that seeing is believing.
We’ve already seen this Louisville program compete with, hang with, and ultimately beat this Notre Dame program just last year. There’s often an intimidation factor in these matchups against big-name programs, but Louisville has no reason to fear Notre Dame based on their most recent head-to-head result.
Moreover, this Notre Dame program has already shown it is extremely beatable, even on its home field. The Irish lost as a four-touchdown favorite to a MAC program, which is quite a few tiers lower in terms of level of competition than one of the top ACC schools. Blowout wins over Miami Ohio and Purdue have not erased that Northern Illinois loss from memory.
We think Louisville does enough to slow down the Fighting Irish rushing attack to keep this game close throughout. In addition to betting Louisville to cover the spread, it may be worth considering a sprinkle of a few dollars on the Cardinals to win outright. The best price on the Louisville moneyline is currently at Caesars Sportsbook (+196).
