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Mets vs. Brewers betting preview and best bets in must-win showdown

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) celebrates his three run home run against the Washington Nationals with starting pitcher David Peterson (23) and shortstop Luisangel Acuna (2) and starting pitcher Jose Quintana (62) and second baseman Jose Iglesias (11) starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) and right fielder Starling Marte (6) and shortstop Francisco Lindor (12) during the sixth inning at Citi Field.
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Sunday afternoon may not be the last time the Mets and Brewers see each other this year.

New York is favored on the moneyline at -120 on FanDuel Sportsbook, while Milwaukee is at +102. You can bet the Mets and give 1.5 runs at +128. Taking the Brewers and 1.5 runs is at -154. New York is 82-77 against the spread this season, while Milwaukee is 84-77. 

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In a season marked by resilience, the Mets – who were 11 games under .500 in late May – will try to snap a three-game skid as it still controls its fate in the battle for the two remaining National League Wild Card spots between them, the Diamondbacks and the Braves. 

New York can clinch Sunday if it wins and Arizona loses to San Diego thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker. A Braves win or D-Backs defeat secures a spot for Atlanta. Arizona would be in with losses by the Braves and the Mets.

With Monday’s scheduled doubleheader due to Hurricane Helene postponing last Wednesday and Thursday’s contests in Atlanta, the Mets may have to return to Truist Park – depending on Sunday’s results – to determine who makes it, who plays whom, and who plays where. 

Milwaukee wraps up its schedule already locked into the No. 3 as National League Central champions for the third time in four seasons. It will host a Wild Card Series starting Tuesday. 

Despite having nothing to play for, Pat Murphy’s team has done its part to affect the race by winning the first two games of this series – and also potentially benefiting itself with the possibility of facing a team one day removed from playing 18 innings. 

The Mets’ 63-39 record since June 1 is the best among all MLB teams, but they’ve lost five straight on the road. The biggest concern lately has been the offense, which produced just two hits in Saturday’s 3-0 defeat. They’ve also had their issues with the Brewers, having lost all five meetings thus far in 2024. 

The Mets will send left-hander David Peterson to the mound, while Milwaukee goes with righty Colin Rea. Here is a betting tip for today’s all-important showdown. 

Fade the Mets hitters

New York manager Carlos Mendoza has seen his offense cool off at a most inopportune time – with a collective 35 wRC+ and a .161/.216/.250 slash line dating back to their last win Sunday against the Phillies. Including Saturday’s loss, the Mets have gone 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position over the past three games. 

Pete Alonso has just two hits (none for extra bases) with eight strikeouts since September 20. He leads the Mets with 34 home runs and 88 RBI, but his inability to produce in clutch situations (a .767 OPS with RISP) has been a major problem. J.D. Martinez has three hits all month (in 47 at-bats). Francisco Lindor returned to the lineup on Friday and collected a pair of singles in his return, but it’s unknown how compromised he still is as he nurses his back. 

Mark Vientos has provided the most life to the offense of late, homering on Tuesday in Atlanta and Friday in Milwaukee. But he’s also been prone to strikeout more often – fanning six times against the Brewers, five times on September 21 alone, and 37 occasions this month. 

Brandon Nimmo is having his worst month in terms of batting average (.183). Although he’s managed to produce more home runs of late, the overall season has been a struggle for Nimmo – with declines in on-base percentage (.331) and wRC+ (111). 

Rae faced the Mets on March 31, holding New York to one run over five innings. Neither Nimmo nor Lindor reached base and the two are a combined 1-for-12 against the Milwaukee righty. 

Best bet for Mets vs. Brewers: Under 8 runs (-110, Caesars)

Murphy made it known this weekend he wants Monday’s doubleheader – if it’s needed at all – to be meaningful. With his team taking the first two games of the series, they could put the Mets in a situation to pitch their top arms in Atlanta depending on how Sunday plays out. 

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Even though the Brewers otherwise have nothing to play for and may still limit the usage of their best players and pitchers, there is an intent to win unlike other teams in this position. 

Peterson is enjoying the best season of his brief career – with a personal-best 3.08 ERA over 114.0 innings. Although his strikeouts are down, at 7.3 per nine innings, he’s reduced the frequency of the home run ball. Opponents have hit just eight out of the park in 2024. 

His September has been a mixed bag. Peterson had a pair of starts in which he allowed eight hits and four earned runs to Toronto and Philadelphia, respectively. But his appearance on September 15 was a 7.2-inning outing in which he held the Phillies to four hits, one walk, and one run. Twelve days before that, he struck out a career-high 11 versus the Red Sox. 

The Brewers are a slightly weaker offensive team against left-handed pitching – with a collective .392 slugging percentage (as compared to .409 versus righties) and a .720 OPS (as compared to .735 against right-handers). This month, Milwaukee is having a relatively tougher time at the plate collectively – with a season-low .289 on-base percentage and .670 OPS. 

Milwaukee’s pitching staff is among the MLB’s top five in ERA (3.64) and BABIP (.276). It’s the best in baseball in terms of keeping opponent’s runners stranded at 76.7 percent. Brewer relievers have enjoyed the second-lowest ERA in the majors at 3.16.

Consistently solid Brewers arms plus the Mets’ latest futility on offense are among the factors that should result in a low-scoring game, which you can get great odds on at Caesars Sportsbook