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Most popular NFL division winner futures bets at BetMGM
Find out which teams have received the highest percentage of the handle and tickets on futures bets to win their division at BetMGM
We may already be two weeks into the 2024 NFL season, but it’s not too late to bet on NFL futures. Wagering on division winners is one of the most popular ways to bet on the NFL.
BetMGM has released some data on the percentage of the handle and bet tickets that each NFL team has received on bets to win its division. This data provides insight into which teams have been the most popular NFL division winner futures bets at BetMGM so far this season.
Chiefs, Eagles, and Lions are seeing the highest handle percentage
The Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions have received the highest percentage of the handle on futures bets to win their respective divisions. The Chiefs have received 90.6% of the handle to win the AFC West, while 82.2% of the money for the NFC East winner is on the Eagles and 73.2% of the money to win the NFC North is on the Lions. Those are the only three teams that have received more than 50% of the handle in their divisions.
The following table summarizes which teams are receiving the highest percentage of the betting handle for each division, along with each team’s opening and current odds. It is sorted by the handle percentage in descending order.
| Division | Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds | Handle % |
| AFC West | Kansas City Chiefs | -200 | -400 | 90.6% |
| NFC East | Philadelphia Eagles | +130 | -145 | 82.2% |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | +150 | +105 | 73.2% |
| AFC East | New York Jets | +280 | +180 | 49.7% |
| AFC South | Houston Texans | +175 | -300 | 47.7% |
| NFC West | San Francisco 49ers | -210 | -175 | 43.1% |
| NFC South | Carolina Panthers | +800 | +12500 | 41.2% |
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | +175 | +195 | 38.6% |
Of those eight teams, five are the clear favorites in their division: Chiefs, Eagles, Lions, Texans and 49ers. The Bengals currently are tied with the Baltimore Ravens as the favorites in the AFC North, but the Ravens were favored until this week. With -115 odds, the Buffalo Bills are favored over the Jets in the AFC East, but that division was much more closely contested last week. Before the Week 2 games, the Bills and Miami Dolphins were co-favorites at +180, while the Jets were close behind at +190.
Longshot Panthers generating a surprising handle
The most surprising team in the above table is the Panthers, who are the clear outliers as one of the biggest longshots in the league to win their division. In the opening odds, only seven teams had longer odds to win their division than the Panthers, while one other team (Tennessee Titans) had identical +800 odds. As recently as last week, when the Panthers’ odds were +2500, two teams (New England Patriots and Denver Broncos) still had longer odds at +3000. The Panthers now have the longest odds by far at +12500, with the Broncos and New York Giants being the next closest longshots at +6600.
The following table summarizes the teams with the longest opening odds and current odds to win their respective divisions (+1000 or higher), along with their percentages of the handle and tickets within their divisions. It is sorted by the current odds in descending order.
| Team | Opening Odds | Last Week’s Odds | Current Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
| Carolina Panthers (NFC South) | +800 | +2500 | +12500 | 43.5% | 41.2% |
| Denver Broncos (AFC West) | +1000 | +3000 | +6600 | 21.0% | 4.5% |
| New York Giants (NFC East) | +1000 | +4000 | +6600 | 10.7% | 4.8% |
| New England Patriots (AFC East) | +2000 | +3000 | +3000 | 10.2% | 3.1% |
| Las Vegas Raiders (AFC West) | +1100 | +2200 | +1400 | 25.5% | 2.3% |
| Tennessee Titans (AFC South) | +800 | +1600 | +1300 | 27.0% | 26.7% |
| Washington Commanders (NFC East) | +1000 | +1800 | +1200 | 28.4% | 9.1% |
| Los Angeles Rams (NFC West) | +400 | +600 | +1200 | 27.2% | 20.9% |
| Arizona Cardinals (NFC West) | +1100 | +1400 | +650 | 22.9% | 13.4% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North) | +1200 | +550 | +350 | 34.7% | 24.9% |
It’s worth noting that this data represents the total ticket and handle splits since the betting market opened, so a large chunk of this data is from before the start of the season. It’s probably safe to assume that most of the bets on the Panthers came during the preseason, when there was more optimism that new head coach Dave Canales could have an impact on second-year QB Bryce Young’s development, like he did for Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield during his previous coaching stints. That possibility made the Panthers an intriguing longshot bet, particularly in a division with no clear-cut favorite. Now, Young has been benched for veteran journeyman Andy Dalton and the Panthers’ odds have plummeted.
The other longshot with a surprisingly high handle is Tennessee. Unlike the Panthers, the Titans are in a division with a clear favorite in the Texans, who also are one of the most bet-on teams to win the Super Bowl. Tennessee has a new head coach in Brian Callahan and a second-year QB in Will Levis, who has shown some flashes in his young career but also has made several boneheaded plays – including two that likely cost his team the victory in each of his first two games this season. The Titans also made several big-name additions this offseason, such as wide receiver Calvin Ridley, running back Tony Pollard, cornerback L’Jarius Sneed and linebacker Ernest Jones. Bettors seem to be expressing confidence in these moves and the Callahan/Levis tandem.
AFC North and NFC West seeing the tightest distribution
The AFC North and NFC West are the only two divisions with three teams that have garnered at least 20% of the handle. The betting splits for each of these divisions can be found in the following table. Each division is sorted by the handle percentage in descending order.
| Team | Opening Odds | Current Odds | Ticket % | Handle % |
| AFC North | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | +175 | +195 | 30.3% | 38.6% |
| Baltimore Ravens | +105 | +195 | 18.8% | 26.5% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | +1200 | +350 | 34.7% | 24.9% |
| Cleveland Browns | +500 | +450 | 16.2% | 10.1% |
| NFC West | ||||
| San Francisco 49ers | -210 | -175 | 23.0% | 43.1% |
| Seattle Seahawks | +650 | +325 | 27.0% | 22.7% |
| Los Angeles Rams | +400 | +1200 | 27.2% | 20.9% |
| Arizona Cardinals | +1100 | +650 | 22.9% | 13.4% |
The AFC North generally is considered one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, so it’s not too surprising that it has such a tight distribution of the money on division winner futures. The Bengals’ and Ravens’ +195 odds currently are the highest of any division favorites. The Steelers are a steady and exceptionally well-coached franchise that has not had a losing season in 20 years, and they upgraded at quarterback this offseason (regardless of whether Russell Wilson or Justin Fields is under center).
Considering the 49ers have won the last two NFC West titles and are heavy favorites to do so again, it’s a bit more surprising that the rest of that division is seeing a comparatively high handle. The uncertainty surrounding Christian McCaffrey’s injury and (until recently) the contract situations of Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk could have something to do with that. Given the bevy of injuries the Rams have suffered early in the season, as well as the solid start by the Cardinals, the handle distribution in this division could change meaningfully over the next few weeks.
Chiefs, Eagles, Lions and 49ers getting big-money bets
When a team’s percentage of the handle is significantly higher than its percentage of the tickets, that means that team is getting much bigger bets on average. That could be because the median bet is much higher in dollar value than it is for other teams, meaning the majority of bets are higher than the ones other teams are receiving. It also could be a sign that there have been several very large outlier bets that are skewing the average bet size. Either way, teams with a handle percentage that is much higher than the bet percentage are the teams that are getting the biggest bets.
The four teams that fit that description in BetMGM’s division winner futures market right now are the Chiefs, Eagles, Lions and Jets. These teams’ ticket and handle percentages are summarized in the table below, sorted based on the biggest delta between their handle and their tickets.
| Team | Current Odds | Ticket % | Handle % | Delta |
| Kansas City Chiefs | -400 | 38.1% | 90.6% | 52.5% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | -145 | 46.1% | 82.2% | 36.2% |
| Detroit Lions | +105 | 51.1% | 73.2% | 22.1% |
| San Francisco 49ers | -175 | 23.0% | 43.1% | 20.1% |
The Chiefs are such a prohibitive favorite and solid, reliable team that it’s easy for bettors to have a great deal of confidence in betting on them, even with juiced-up odds. Making $0.25 on the dollar when you have that much confidence in a team is still a solid profit.
The Eagles are an interesting team here, particularly after their historic collapse last season. Bettors are expressing confidence that the issues that caused that debacle are behind them. It will be very interesting to see if this trend changes at all after Philadelphia lost to the Falcons in Week 2 despite having a 99.3% chance of winning late in the fourth quarter. Bettors also could be leaning into the 19-year streak of the NFC East not having a repeat champion. It would be a huge surprise if the Commanders or Giants were to win this division, so if the trend holds and the Cowboys can’t repeat, then the Eagles are the only other option.