NFL betting shake-up: Underdogs rise and Super Bowl odds shift dramatically

Early season results have had the greatest effect on these team’s chances of getting to New Orleans in February

The first month of the NFL season has brought several surprising results, with heavy underdogs pulling off outright wins. As a result, Super Bowl odds have shifted across the league. While preseason favorites like the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions have maintained their elite status, longshots such as the Carolima Panthers and New England Patriots are living up to their lower expectations. 

These teams have seen their Super Bowl fortunes change significantly – either for better, worse or both – since the opening kickoff. 

Minnesota Vikings (from +8000 to +1400)

After a tumultuous offseason and a preseason marred by injuries to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy and wide receiver Jordan Addison, the Sam Darnold-led Vikings – whose over/under win total at the start of the season was 6.5 on BetMGM –  impressively have gone undefeated over four weeks. Minnesota’s steady climb up the NFL hierarchy has been highlighted by wins over the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, last year’s AFC North champion Houston Texans and, most recently, the division-rival Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. 

As unlikely as the Vikings’ start has been, Darnold’s performance is just as stunning. From basically off the board as an MVP consideration, FanDuel gives him the fifth-best odds at +1100, which would make one bettor very happy.

The brilliant schemes devised by defensive coordinator Brian Flores have worked against quality quarterbacks Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love. Minnesota is allowing just 14.8 points per game, with Pat Jones II and his five sacks leading the Vikings’ pass rush.

Washington Commanders (+10000 to +25000 to +5000)

Hello, Jayden Daniels. The rookie signal-caller burst onto the scene in Week 3’s Monday night contest in Cincinnati, throwing for 254 yards and rushing for 39 against the Bengals. Many might have expected a letdown from him and his team, but he followed with 280 total yards and continued to show ridiculous passing accuracy in pasting an Arizona Cardinals team favored by 3.5 points at most sportsbooks. 

Not surprisingly, he’s risen to become the favorite to claim Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. Starting the season at +400 and trailing top draft pick Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner is now getting -120 odds at DraftKings. 

Week 1 at Tampa Bay saw a poor defensive effort while Daniels was getting his bearings. It was reason enough to think the Commanders weren’t making it far in 2024, much less to the Super Bowl. The defense remains a major question mark, but thanks mainly to their rookie quarterback, brighter days are ahead for Washington. And they may be sooner than anyone realized. 

Denver Broncos (+10000 to +50000 to +15000)

Sean Payton’s team started near the bottom, sank even farther, and are now on the way back up. Sitting at 2-2 following back-to-back wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Jets, Denver has done it on the strength of its defense, which is ranked third in points allowed per game (13.8), second in total yards allowed (256.5) and fourth in opponents’ passing yards per contest (146). 

The Broncos’ win total trajectory also reflects the seesaw nature of their season so far. It started at 6.5, dipped to 5.5 and has returned to its Week 1 number – with the Over on DraftKings juiced up to -145. That’s certainly a reflection of people buying into this mini-turnaround. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has limited the mistakes (no interceptions in Week 4), even if his performance in the rain against the Jets produced a minuscule amount of passing yards (60). 

Cleveland Browns (+3500 to +15000)

The simplest way to describe this team so far in 2024 is, ugly. Cleveland came in with reasonable expectations: an 8.5 projected win total and +500 to win the AFC North. Four games and three lackluster performances later, the Browns now are an unmitigated mess – specifically at quarterback. Deshaun Watson is a $230 million problem for the franchise. Horrid execution by him, and the offense as whole, has helped sink Cleveland’s win total to 5.5 and its division title odds to +4000. 

The loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday featured a litany of mistakes – from an interception by Watson to a missed extra point to an 82-yard touchdown catch by Amari Cooper called back by a holding penalty. It certainly doesn’t help that Cleveland’s roster is ravaged by injuries to key players. So with an upcoming schedule that includes Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles, a desperate Cincinnati team, the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers, the uphill battle might soon get steeper. 

New York Giants (+10000 to +50000)

Let’s start with the great news. Wide receiver Malik Nabers is legit. With two 100-yard performances and three touchdown receptions, the rookie from LSU is runner-up behind Daniels for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +275 on Caesars Sportsbook.

Now, to the good. New York’s defense has been relatively solid behind the pass-rushing duo of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. This group has done well to keep the Commanders, Browns and Dallas Cowboys in check. 

And now for the bad. Daniel Jones’ progression is nowhere to be found. The offense, save for Nabers, is stuck in quicksand. In addition, Nabers now is dealing with a concussion, which he suffered last week. Expectations never were that high for the Giants, as reflected in their season-opening Super Bowl number. Now, all their future odds are growing by the week: making the playoffs is +1100 on BetMGM and winning the NFC East is at +5000.