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NFL MVP odds that have moved the most: Is Sam Darnold for real?
How much better have Josh Allen’s odds gotten after four weeks of play?
The NFL MVP race is a popular topic throughout any season, and that certainly is the case for the 2024 campaign. As usual, quarterbacks are at the forefront of discussion, but the ability to pair individual production with team success is key to winning this coveted award.
Since the start of the season, the futures odds have shifted greatly, even with only four games in the books. In this space, we’ll tackle three significant movers since the start of the season using odds from BetMGM sportsbook, including two favorites and a longshot that has made up significant ground in only four weeks.
Patrick Mahomes: +600 to +240
Patrick Mahomes is the consensus choice as the best player in the NFL, and given that lofty perch and back-to-back Super Bowl wins, it was not a surprise to see him listed as the betting favorite before Week 1. However, a change from +600 down to +240 is highly significant, as Mahomes maintains his favorite status. It seems the online betting community doesn’t care if he is not playing his best, as long as the Kansas City Chiefs are winning.
On one hand, Mahomes has not been as prolific individually as he was in previous years. He has only 904 passing yards and six touchdowns in four games, with five interceptions and an average of 7.5 yards per pass attempt that is below his career norm. With that said, Mahomes is the unquestioned leader of the only undefeated team in the AFC. He will face a challenge with No. 1 wide receiver Rashee Rice suffering a major knee injury, but that could only enhance Mahomes’ narrative arc as he pursues a third NFL MVP award.
Josh Allen: +800 to +260
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills suffered their first loss in Week 4, running into a buzzsaw in the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. Allen still was able to make a few eye-popping plays in the game, though, and he is the centerpiece of a strong team with individual bonafides that every non-Mahomes player strives for in the NFL.
Allen never has won the MVP, but he has a strong baseline of previous success and tremendous numbers this season. Allen has seven touchdown passes, two rushing TDs and zero interceptions through four games, putting the Bills on his back after the loss of Stefon Diggs in the offseason. Allen also owns a sparkling 116.5 quarterback rating with 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and the advanced metrics paint a similar picture of his excellence. If he can maintain his individual performance on a playoff-bound Bills team, the formula is clear.
Sam Darnold: +20000 to +1000
By far the biggest surprise of the early NFL MVP race is Sam Darnold, except maybe for one bettor out there. Darnold also is the biggest mover in the odds. He wasn’t even a lock to start the season opener for the Minnesota Vikings after the team used its first-round draft pick on J.J. McCarthy. Then, McCarthy went down with injury in the summer, and Darnold picked up the ball and has run with it to the tune of league-leading production on a 4-0 team.
The team’s success is essential to Darnold’s candidacy, especially when the widespread expectation for the Vikings was not an undefeated start. It remains to be seen whether or not Minnesota can remain a top-tier team in the NFC, but Darnold also leads the NFL with 11 passing touchdowns compared to only three interceptions. He also is in the top eight in the league in passing yards and, contrary to Mahomes and Allen, has the genuine surprise factor to potentially captivate voters for the league’s most prestigious individual award.