NFL player props: Most-bet player props for NFL Sunday

Bettors at two sportsbooks expect Jaguars’ WR Christian Kirk to underperform against the Bears in London

Christian Kirk doesn’t rank among the NFL’s top 35 wide receivers in receptions or receiving yards. Heck, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ wideout doesn’t even lead his own team in either category.

However, when it comes to the NFL’s most-bet player props for Week 6, Kirk is numero uno at one major sportsbook. He’s also quite popular at another. 

In both instances, bettors have been loading up on Kirk’s total receptions prop ahead of Jacksonville’s Week 6 battle against the Chicago Bears in London. And in both instances, those same bettors expect Kirk to have an underwhelming game Sunday at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

In addition to Kirk, here’s a look at the five NFL player props drawing the most wagering action at DraftKings and BetMGM, two of the best US sportsbooks, heading into Week 6.

Will Kirk drop the ball in London? Bettors sure hope so

Christian Kirk was a model of consistency in the receptions department during his final season in Arizona and his first two years in Jacksonville. 

He had 77 catches in 17 games (11 starts) in 2021; 84 catches in 17 starts in 2022; and 57 catches last season when he was limited to 12 games. Kirk’s per-game reception average in those three years (in order): 4.53, 4.94 and 4.75.

So based on his average production the past three seasons, Kirk’s consensus Week 6 NFL player prop of 4.5 receptions for Sunday’s matchup against Chicago makes sense. Actually, in the context of his last three seasons, one could argue it’s a tad low.

So why had DraftKings taken in more money on Kirk Under 4.5 receptions than any other Week 6 NFL player prop as of Friday afternoon? And why had BetMGM — also as of Friday afternoon — accepted more wagers on Kirk Under 4.5 receptions than all but four player props?

Probably because the 2018 second-round pick from Texas A&M has just 21 catches through five games — and 15 of those came in back-to-back road games against the Bills in Week 3 (eight receptions) and Texans in Week 4 (seven receptions).

Kirk’s per-game reception average in 2024: 4.2

Another reason the NFL props market is fading Kirk this week: He’s facing a Bears secondary that ranks 10th in the NFL in completions allowed.

At DraftKings, Kirk Under 4.5 receptions carries surprising odds of -175. BetMGM (-160) isn’t much of a bargain, either.

In the long run, bettors backing Ravens’ RB Henry

Among teams that have played fewer than six games, nobody has posted more rushing yards than old man Derrick Henry.

In his first season with Baltimore, the former two-time NFL rushing champion has compiled 572 yards on just 95 carries — that pencils out to a whopping 6 yards per tote.

The secret to Henry’s success so far? He’s maximizing his attempts. In the last four weeks, the former Tennessee Titan has ripped off runs of 25, 29, 29, 38, 51 and 87 yards.

Hence the reason DraftKings’ bettors have fallen in love with Henry’s longest rush prop going into Sunday’s game against visiting Washington: As of Friday, Over 16.5 yards (-115) had fetched the second-most money among all Week 6 NFL player props at DraftKings.

Clearly, that money hasn’t stopped pouring in, as Henry’s longest rush is now 17.5 yards (Over -145).

Following Kirk and Henry, the next three most popular NFL player props at DraftKings based on the amount of money wagered are:

• • Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed Over 58.5 receiving yards (-120 vs. Arizona; now 63.5, Over -120)
• • Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow Under 8.5 rushing yards (-120 at New York Giants on Sunday Night Football)
• • Titans running back Tony Pollard to gain at least 60 rushing yards (-145 vs. Indianapolis)

If Lions’ RB Gibbs rumbles, BetMGM bettors will roar

The Detroit Lions’ thunder-and-lightning backfield plan has worked splendidly so far. 

Veteran David Montgomery (“thunder”) has 271 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 63 carries, while second-year pro Jahmyr Gibbs (“lightning”) has 285 yards and three touchdowns on 54 carries.

Gibbs in particular has come on strong since Week 1 (when his touches were limited due to a hamstring injury). Prior to last week’s bye, Gibbs posted rushing totals of 84, 83 and 78 yards in successive weeks.

He had long rushes of 24, 18 and 20 yards in those three contests (after not motoring for more than 8 yards in the season opener).

So it’s no surprise that the No. 1 NFL player prop for Week 6 at BetMGM is Gibbs’ longest rush Sunday to exceed 16.5 yards (Over -135). It’s even less of a surprise when you realize Gibbs will be going against a Dallas Cowboys rush defense that ranks 23rd in the NFL. 

Then again, after Week 3, the Cowboys were dead last against the run. So they have tightened things up. In fact, Dallas hasn’t allowed a run of longer than 8 yards in the last two games.

The Cowboys also kept Gibbs in check in last year’s 20-19 home win, holding the then-rookie to 43 yards on 15 carries. However, one of those carries went for 17 yards.

Sportsbook seeing ‘Swift’ action on Bears RB

After Gibbs, the next two Week 6 NFL player props that have fetched the most bets at BetMGM involve the same player: Chicago running back D’Andre Swift.

Interestingly, though, bettors are counting on Swift to do more damage as a pass catcher than a ball carrier in Sunday’s game against the Jaguars: As of Friday afternoon, Swift Over 18.5 receiving yards and Under 55.5 rushing yards ranked second and third, respectively, among all player prop wagers at BetMGM.

In fact, Swift’s rushing yards number has since dipped 2 yards to 53.5 (Under -115), while his receiving yards projection is up to 19.5 (Over -110).

Settling in between Swift’s two props and the Under on Kirk’s receptions at BetMGM? That would be Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye. 

Making his NFL debut at home against Houston, Maye initially was projected for 158.5 passing yards at BetMGM. The sportsbook’s customers clearly put their faith (and money) in Maye, whose passing yards prop now sits at 164.5 (-115 both ways).

The Over is BetMGM’s fourth most-bet Week 6 NFL player prop.