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Padres vs. Dodgers on Thursday: Odds, preview and best bets
The Dodgers are favored to beat the Padres in a game that could clinch the NL West for Los Angeles
The champion of the National League West could be decided tonight.
A Dodgers victory over second-place San Diego in the series finale will give Los Angeles its 11th division title over the last 12 seasons. A Padres win tightens the gap to two heading into the regular season’s final weekend. Plus, San Diego has already secured the head-to-head record for the year and would thus earn the tiebreaker if the clubs finish even in the standings.
The Dodgers are slight home favorites at most U.S. sportsbooks. As the odds demonstrate, a modest Over/Under is expected in a matchup with two veteran pitchers.
Odds provided in the table below are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
| San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+170) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-102) | Under 8.5 (-118) |
| Money line | +102 | -122 |
If you are new to betting on baseball, you may want to check out our MLB betting guide.
The first two games of this series have certainly lived up to the postseason-like atmosphere. San Diego executed an improbable 5-4-3 ninth-inning triple play in Tuesday’s opener to clinch its third postseason berth in five seasons. Los Angeles answered Wednesday with a 4-3 victory behind two hits and two RBIs from Shohei Ohtani.
The Padres have gotten to the point of being within reach of L.A. thanks to winning nine of their last 11 and having a 32-16 record since the start of August.
Seeding across the National League is yet to be decided, but each of these teams is assured they’ll play in October. The Dodgers have been in the playoffs every year since 2013. In addition to the NL West crown, Los Angeles is seeking home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs – currently a half-game up on the 94-65 Philadelphia Phillies.
The Dodgers are fortified with the presumptive National League MVP in Ohtani and a lineup that features Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. However, the Dodgers’ pitching struggles have been a major contributor to a 11-10 record this month.
Los Angeles is 78-80 this season against the spread while San Diego is 81-77.
Riding the hot hands
The Padres are scheduled to send Joe Musgrove to the mound. His history against the Dodgers isn’t great: a 4.48 ERA over 12 starts, including being tagged for five earned runs and seven hits during the season-opening series in South Korea.
But his recent performances have been excellent. Musgrove is coming off back-to-back outings of six scoreless innings apiece. He’s struck out at least seven batters in each of his last four appearances. And since the All-Star break, Musgrove has a 2.05 ERA with only three home runs allowed.
He’s had moments of coming through in pressure situations like this – having tossed a complete-game shutout on the road against the New York Mets in the winner-take-all contest of the 2022 Wild Card Series.
Even taking into consideration the kind of hitters the Dodgers possess, the Padres have the arms that can combat them. That extends to the bullpen, which has become one of the strongest in baseball following some key moves made at the trade deadline.
Left-hander Tanner Scott, who arrived from the Marlins, and right-hander Jason Adam, acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays, each have September ERAs under 2.00 and have helped to significantly improve this area. Closer Robert Suarez remains a question mark, however, as he’s already given up eight runs for the month.
Meanwhile, Dodgers starter Walker Buehler is familiar with and well-suited for starts of this nature. However, the 30-year-old right-hander has not pitched to that level since returning from Tommy John surgery in May and spending two years away from a big-league mound. His pitches don’t have the same effectiveness and he’s had trouble putting hitters away. Batters are slugging .740 against his four-seam fastball with a strikeout rate of 10.7 percent.
If there was a sign of promise in his last start – on September 21 against Colorado – it was that he struck out a season-high nine batters. Buehler has gone at least five innings in each of his last four outings, but none longer than six. And against the Rockies, he allowed five hits and four earned runs over 5.1 frames.
The game’s significance will dictate a quick hook if necessary. Reflective of the uncertainty surrounding his rotation, Dave Roberts has heavily leaned on the relievers, which have collectively logged 99 innings in September – the most of any National League bullpen.
Best bet for Padres vs. Dodgers: First inning Over 0.5 runs (-122, FanDuel)
Buehler’s struggles this season have been especially apparent early. His first inning ERA is 9.00 with 10 walks and nine extra-base hits allowed. Opponents have hit .354 against him in the opening frame.
Jurickson Profar, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill are each among the top 15 in wRC+ over the last two weeks. Tatis has especially rounded into form since coming off the injured list earlier this month. He’s hit safely in 12 of the past 13 games with seven home runs, five doubles, and 12 RBIs. On Wednesday, he went 2-for-3 including a fifth-inning homer off Jack Flaherty which briefly tied the game at three.
Should the Padres fail to score in the top half off Buehler, there’s added security in knowing who the Dodgers have at the top of the order.
Ohtani, sporting an NL-best 53 home runs, can drive one out at any moment and has also produced 19 hits over his last eight games. And if he should get on, he’s bound to get in scoring position and improve on his 56 steals. Mix in Mookie Betts, who is 7-for-19 lifetime against Musgrove with three doubles and four walks, plus Freddie Freeman and his career .370 batting average versus the Pads’ right-hander, and Teoscar Hernández, and that’s a recipe for quick run production.
Take Wednesday night, for instance. Los Angeles pieced together a score against Padres starter Dylan Cease by way of a walk to Ohtani, a wild pitch, and a Hernández single.
Considering the stakes and the rivalry, this one – like the other two – will have an October feel. And most postseason games are relatively low-scoring. Even still, considering the principals involved on the mound and at the plate, it makes sense that at least one of these teams will produce a run out of the gate.