Phillies vs. Mets odds, preview and predictions for NLDS Game 4

What to look for as the Mets try and close out the best-of-five series at home while the Phillies are on the brink

The New York Mets returned to Citi Field and gained the edge against the National League East-rival Philadelphia Phillies behind Sean Manaea’s stellar seven-plus scoreless innings, home runs from Pete Alonso and Jesse Winker, and productive two-out hitting in a 7-2 victory in Game 3 of the NL Division Series, which puts Philadelphia one defeat away from elimination.

The Phillies still have a slight edge on the money line at -116, with New York at -102 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting on the Mets against the spread at +1.5 runs currently is at -184, while taking the Phillies and getting 1.5 runs is at +150. 

The Phillies will attempt to prolong their season as they send Ranger Suárez to the mound. The left-hander has built himself a solid postseason resume and became a first-time All-Star in 2024. He finished with a 3.46 ERA in 150 innings pitched but has struggled since returning from injury in July. 

New York’s hopes to end the series on its own field begin with fellow southpaw Jose Quintana. The 35-year-old went through a severe rough patch this summer but has since regained trust – especially after he dominated the Milwaukee Brewers in the decisive Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. He tossed seven scoreless innings at Citizens Bank Park on Sept. 13 and allowed five runs over 16 total frames versus Philadelphia this season.  

The Mets stunned the Phillies in Game 1 with a five-run eighth inning after being stymied by Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia awoke the next day and evened the series in a back-and-forth Game 2 that ended with a walk-off hit by Nick Castellanos. Most of the biggest bats in the team’s lineup have struggled in this series, however, while New York has received production from Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Mark Vientos and others. 

Including the Division Series, these two clubs are even in their head-to-head matchup this year, with each recording eight wins. Philadelphia, seeking a third straight trip to the NL Championship Series, began the year 45-19 and possessed the league’s second-best regular-season record at 95-67. New York has been the best in MLB since June 1 at 69-42.

Below, you will find tips and a best bet for Game 4 of this NLDS, which are available to make at the best MLB sportsbooks.

Be careful betting on the starters

The 29-year-old Suárez began the season with a 1.75 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and .191 batting average against through June 19. Since then, his ERA rose to 3.46, his WHIP went up to 1.20 and his opponents’ batting average ballooned to .243. The saving grace for the Phillies is Suárez’s success in October. Over 33.1 postseason innings, he’s allowed just six earned runs and 22 hits. He had a rate of 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings during his two appearances in last year’s NLCS – an increase from his regular-season average.

The trust in him turning it around and returning to his previous form is there. But his recent struggles could yield a quick hook if manager Rob Thomson doesn’t like what he sees early. The Phillies used four relievers on Tuesday, including closer Carlos Estevez. But they’ll have high-leverage guys Matt Strahm and Jeff Hoffman – and everyone else on the pitching staff except Game 3 starter Aaron Nola – ready to go, as Thomson stated that everyone is available. 

Therefore, Thomson might be more liable to utilize his best arms to help tame the Mets’ offense and allow his own bats to produce against New York relievers that, prior to Game 3, were used to a significant degree and haven’t been extremely reliable. 

Quintana’s clutch effort of six scoreless innings against Milwaukee in Game 3 of the Wild Card round extended his recent run of success. He allowed just three earned runs over his final six starts of the regular season following a rough stretch from July 14-Aug. 20 during which he was tagged for at least four runs on four occasions. 

There may be an urgency for Mets manager Carlos Mendoza to finish the series at Citi Field. Wednesday might be a spot for using starters out of the bullpen – namely David Peterson and Tylor Megill. And with closer Edwin Diaz having had two days of rest, don’t be surprised if he pitches more than one inning. 

For prop bets such as outs recorded, strikeouts and hits allowed, it might be best to simply stay away, considering the nature of this game. DraftKings has Suárez’s outs recorded over/under at 11.5 with the Over juiced up to -135, while Quintana’s is 15.5 and the Under at -175. 

Best bet for Phillies vs. Mets: Jose Iglesias to record 2+ hits (+220, FanDuel)

The full-time infielder/part-time pop star has been a revelation. The Mets signed the 34-year-old to a minor-league deal last December, called him up to the big leagues out of necessity and have been reaping the benefits many times over ever since.

Iglesias revitalized his career more than anyone could have imagined, batting .337 with a 137 OPS+ over 85 games and ending the regular season with a 22-game hitting streak. That, and his song “OMG” – which has been elevated to team anthem status – reached No. 1 on the Latin music charts. 

Not a whole lot has changed thus far in October. Iglesias has hit safely in five of the Mets’ six postseason contests and went 2-for-4 in Game 3, driving in a pair of runs in the seventh inning to increase New York’s lead.

The odds for him to get more than one hit look even better when you consider recent success and his history against the Phillies’ scheduled starter. Iglesias has faced Suárez eight times and recorded six hits, including two doubles. In each start Suarez has made against him, Iglesias has chalked up a multi-hit performance. 

Iglesias also has good numbers against Wheeler should he enter Game 3, going 5-for-12 with a double and two RBIs. 

Parlaying 2+ hits with 3+ total bases gets you +411 odds on FanDuel, and a $20 bet would result in an $82.39 payout.