Royals vs Braves betting preview: Odds, predictions and best bets

A team with everything to play for hosts a team with very little to play for.

Atlanta is the heavy favorite on the moneyline at -240 on FanDuel Sportsbook, while Kansas City is at +198. The Braves are 75-53 in games in which they are the moneyline favorite and 43-33 at home in such a scenario. You can bet Atlanta and give 1.5 runs at +106. Taking the Royals and 1.5 runs is at -113.

MLB wild card picture

In the wild National League Wild Card race, the Braves enter Sunday as the No. 5 seed – one game ahead of the Mets and Diamondbacks. 

Atlanta can clinch Sunday if it wins or Arizona loses to San Diego thanks to a head-to-head tiebreaker. A Mets win and a D-Backs defeat secures a spot for New York. Arizona would be in with losses by the Braves and the Mets.

Sunday’s results will determine if Monday’s scheduled doubleheader is necessary. Atlanta would need one win over the Mets to have the tiebreaker there as well. 

The Braves’ resourcefulness has shown through as the season has gone on. Despite injuries to the likes of Austin Riley and Ronald Acuña, Jr., Brian Snitker’s club has seven of eight and is primed for a seventh consecutive playoff appearance.

The Royals are a remarkable story in their own right. Kansas City clinched a playoff berth on Friday and thus became the first team to reach the postseason after losing as many as 106 the previous year.

A Detroit win over the White Sox or a Kansas City loss will mean the Royals travel to Houston for Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener. A Kansas City victory coupled with a Tigers defeat would send the Royals to Baltimore. 

Kansas City’s strength is in the play of its MVP candidate, Bobby Witt Jr, who has compiled an fWAR over 10, 30+ home runs, and better than 130 runs batted in. Its greatest concern is recent performance. The Royals aren’t far removed from a pair of seven-game losing streaks that put their playoff fate in question. 

Side with the Pitchers

It was likely the Royals would either go with bullpen arms or a starter who won’t be used in the Wild Card Series. Getting the ball to begin is right-hander Alec Marsh. He enters Sunday with a 4.65 ERA and 4.29 FIP in 124 innings. Marsh struggled to throw strikes in his rookie year, but has cut that down significantly to 2.56 per nine innings in 2024. 

Even if they don’t use some of their best pitchers, they still have the capability to limit scoring. 

As for the Braves, the ball will be given to 40-year-old Charlie Morton, who is very accustomed to must-win games. He’s in the midst of a solid month – having allowed eight earned runs over four outings. Half of those came in his previous appearance nine days ago in Miami. Morton has gone at least five innings in each of his last nine starts. 

Compared to 2023, he’s lessened his strikeout percentage (25.6 last year, 24 this year) but also his walks (11.6 last year, 9.2 this year). The rate at which he induces ground balls, which used to be as high as 62.8 percent, is down to just under 46. 

Despite the club’s recent rough stretch, Kansas City has allowed just 11 runs over its past six games. Consequently, the under has been 5-1 in that stretch. The Royals rank among the least scored upon in road games with a 3.7 runs allowed average. 

Kansas City ranks eighth in MLB with a 3.77 ERA and since the start of September, it’s been 3.02. Additionally, the group’s strikeouts per nine innings (9.64) and walks per nine innings (2.89) are near the top of the baseball leaderboard. 

Atlanta can match that – and then some. The Braves’ K/9 rate this month is 10.27 while their BB/9 is 2.60. For the year, the Braves now have the majors’ lowest ERA at 3.48. And for September, the Braves have the third-best at 2.56. They’ve gone under their total run line in 93 of their last 151 games.

Both teams share a common trait of limiting the long ball. Kansas City has allowed the fewest home runs in MLB this season at 145, while Atlanta has yielded 146 homers. 

They each have logged a reduced number of innings from the bullpen. Royals relievers have tallied 513 while the Braves have 527.1. Only Seattle has gotten less work beyond its starting pitching. 

Best Bet for Royals vs. Braves: Braves -1.5 (-106 on FanDuel)

With their postseason fortunes set and wanting to be well prepared for Tuesday, it’s likely that Matt Quartraro’s game plan is to still rest everyday players and be mindful of pitcher usage the same way he was on Saturday. 

That said, there is a greater likelihood of taking the foot off the gas pedal more. Meanwhile, the Braves – who have won five in a row – are fully on the accelerator and getting hot when it matters. If you’re placing a bet on this one, we like the Braves to cover the runline. FanDuel is offering the best odds on that bet at the time of publication, but make sure to shop for your odds on the best sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best price.

Getting first baseman Matt Olson to return to form has been significant, as he provides power to compliment Marcell Ozuna – who is among the league leaders in several offensive categories including home runs (39), RBIs (102), and batting average (.306). Over this latest eight-game stretch, the Braves are hitting around .300 as a team with a wRC+ of 150. 

Michael Harris II has cooled a bit this weekend, but before this series he had recorded at least two hits in six of his last seven games. 

To top it all off, if he should be needed, Atlanta boasts one of the best closers. Raisel Iglesias, who has maintained an ERA under 2.00 dating back to late July, has allowed just two hits over 5.1 scoreless frames since giving up five runs to the Dodgers on September 15. He came in on Saturday and threw 15 pitches in retiring the Royals in order.