Sportsbooks sweating out lopsided action on Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever

The Indiana Fever have already clinched the playoffs. What is the team’s ceiling?

The Indiana Fever entered the 2024 WNBA season in the midst of a seven-year playoff drought. The franchise’s cumulative record during this span: 58-174. 

Putting that putrid mark into a different mathematical perspective, the Fever lost exactly 75% of the 232 games they played from 2017-2023.

Well, guess what Indiana also entered the 2024 WNBA season with: a hotshot rookie named Caitlin Clark. Thanks to her otherworldly on-court talents, Clark brought legitimate hope not just to her new franchise and league, but to novice sports bettors looking to capitalize on Caitlin Clark Fever.

And now that Indiana has officially locked up a WNBA playoff berth, those bettors actually stand a chance to cash in big time — much to the chagrin of WNBA championship oddsmakers., especially at one sportsbook.

WNBA championship odds: Bracing for the ‘Caitlin Effect’

While the WNBA’s popularity has modestly increased over the years — including within the wagering community — it has always been a fringe sport in the betting industry. The reason: Its impact on a sportsbook’s bottom line has always been minimal.

That changed this season. And the reason is Clark.

The generational talent entered the American sports zeitgeist as a collegiate player at Iowa. After starring for four seasons with the Hawkeyes, Clark still had one year of eligibility remaining after the 2023-24 campaign. Instead, she declared for the 2024 WNBA Draft and was snatched up by Indiana, which owned the first pick.

Even before getting drafted, Clark began moving the WNBA’s interest needle like never before. She was the catalyst behind increased ticket sale,; increased merchandising dollars, increased television exposure and, yes, increased traction at sportsbooks.

Always one step ahead of the game, though, oddsmakers saw this coming and prepared accordingly. That’s why BetMGM Sportsbook slotted Indiana seventh out of 12 teams when it opened its 2024 WNBA championship futures market — even though the Fever were coming off three straight last-place finishes in the Eastern Conference. 

However, the true measure of Clark’s sports betting impact was hidden in the Fever’s title odds, which opened at +2500 at BetMGM. Those odds were on par with sixth-choice Phoenix (+2000). But the price was exactly half that of co-eighth choices Minnesota and Atlanta (both +5000).

“The ‘Caitlin Clark Effect’ definitely factored into our 25-to-1 price,” says Hannah Luther, a sports trader at BetMGM who oversees the book’s WNBA market. “Even with the lofty expectations of adding a No. 1 pick, a team that went 13-27 the previous season isn’t expected to make it far in the postseason the following year. 

“Still, we definitely were anticipating increased traffic on the Fever simply due to the hype Caitlin brings wherever she goes.”

That traffic certainly materialized at BetMGM like rush hour on a Friday.

WNBA championship odds: Liability concerns linger for sportsbooks

Despite immense on- and off-court pressure, Clark overcame a slow start to her rookie season and was more than holding her own by the midpoint in early July.

Unfortunately for the Fever, the victories weren’t piling up accordingly. 

After a July 10 home loss to bottom-feeder Washington, Indiana was 9-14 and in danger of missing the playoffs for an eighth straight season. Which meant bettors who backed the Fever to win the WNBA title were in danger of seeing their wagers go up in smoke.

And in BetMGM’s case, there were a lot of such bettors.

“We got an influx of [futures] bets on the Fever almost immediately after the markets opened, especially when they began to pick up steam on social media,” Luther says. 

In short order, Indiana became BetMGM’s biggest WNBA championship liability, with nearly 50% of every bet placed and more than 60% of every dollar wagered supporting the Fever to win it all.

Of course, as long as Indiana remained on the wrong side of the playoff cutline, the sportsbook not only had nothing to worry about, but it would be the one raking in a financial windfall.

Then came the monthlong hiatus for the Summer Olympics in Paris, a hiatus that apparently did wonders for Clark and her teammates. Because when the season resumed, the Fever caught fire, ripping off eight wins in 10 games from Aug. 16 to Sept. 8.

Toward the end of the hot streak — on Sept. 4, to be exact — Indiana’s seven-year playoff drought officially ended. And oddsmakers like Luther began to sweat.

Yes, the Fever still sat sixth in the eight-team playoff standings following an 86-75 home loss to the two-time defending champion Las Vegas Aces on Sept. 11. And at BetMGM, they’ve only moved up to the co-fifth choice (with the Seattle Storm) with +2000 title odds that aren’t much different from the opening number.

Still, Indiana is in the tournament, which tips off Sept. 22. That means it will have a chance to win the franchise’s second WNBA championship.

Were that to happen, well, let’s just say Luther wouldn’t be popping any champagne bottles. 

“Wagers on the Fever account for more than 60% of our handle in the WNBA championship market. That’s unusual for a team currently tied for fifth in the playoff standings,” Luther says. “It’s also unusual, in fact unprecedented, to see the type of hype and action we’ve seen surrounding the WNBA this season. And it’s clear much of it is because of Caitlin Clark.”