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Week 6 NFL betting: Can Lions, 49ers come through as popular road favorites?

Despite laying points on the highway, Lions, 49ers attract wagering interest at two sportsbooks

Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams (9) celebrates with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (14) as he scores 70-yards touchdown against Seattle Seahawks during the second half at Ford Field in Detroit on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024.
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The NFL’s two remaining undefeated teams not only have been perfect on the field, they have been almost as flawless at the betting window.

In addition to their combined 10-0 straight-up record, the Kansas City Chiefs and Minnesota Vikings are a combined 8-1-1 against the point spread (with the Vikings a sterling 5-for-5).

So early Week 6 betting action has to favor Kansas City and Minnesota, right? Nope. But only because both squads are on bye.

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With the Chiefs and Vikings idle, NFL bettors who like to get a jump start on the wagering week have decided to pile on … a slew of road favorites? And the second-biggest road underdog?

Sounds crazy, but it’s true — at least at two national sportsbooks, as you’ll see in the following early Week 6 betting action breakdown that also includes tidbits related to this week’s totals and noteworthy betting splits.

Bettors banking on Lions to roar in Big D

Detroit joined Philadelphia, Tennessee and the Los Angeles Chargers as the first teams to get a respite from the 2024 season, as all four had byes in Week 5.

Among the group, the Lions probably were most in need of the break. Not because they’re struggling — in fact, if not for an unproductive day in the red zone in Week 2 against the Buccaneers, Detroit would be 4-0.

No, the Lions needed to catch their breath because of the scheduling grind they’re about to embark on: four road trips — all against playoff-quality foes — sandwiched around a home game against the Titans.

It all starts Sunday in Dallas against a Cowboys squad coming off a last-minute Sunday Night Football road win against Pittsburgh.

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Needless to say, those who do wagering business with BetMGM and BetRivers are confident the Lions will kick off their brutal five-game stretch with a comfortable win. That’s because as of Tuesday, BetMGM had written more early Week 6 point-spread tickets on Detroit than any other team, while BetRivers had taken more cash on the Lions than all but three squads.

Detroit is up to a 3.5-point favorite at both sportsbooks, but the odds are slightly more favorable at BetMGM (+100) than BetRivers (-104).

From a recent trends perspective, the love for the Lions makes sense. After all, Dallas has lost both of its home games so far (giving 70 points in the process). 

Meanwhile, Detroit has covered in three of four games this season (favored in all four) and is on a mind-boggling 26-7 ATS run since Week 9 of the 2022 campaign (playoffs included). That includes an ongoing 12-3 ATS stretch on the road.

One of those point-spread triumphs came last season in Dallas in Week 17. However, the Lions were a 4.5-point underdog that night and lost 20-19. This time around, they’re favored to do one thing they haven’t done in 11 years (beat the Cowboys), and achieve another milestone they haven’t reached in 13 years (win in Dallas).

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Market still high on 49ers; Washington commands attention

Detroit isn’t the only team that has attracted a lot of early Week 6 action at both BetMGM and BetRivers.

The San Francisco 49ers, who travel to Seattle for Thursday Night Football, have been a popular play at both sportsbooks. Which is odd, considering San Francisco (2-3) is laying a field goal on a short week; trailing the Seahawks (3-2) in the NFC West standings; and mired in a 7-13 point-spread slump (playoffs included).

Then again, the 49ers are riding a five-game winning streak against Seattle. During the streak, San Francisco has covered the spread four times. (Only exception: a 28-16 victory as a 14.5-point home favorite in Week 14 last year.)

San Francisco -3.5 (-105) at Seattle is the fifth-most popular early-week play at both BetMGM (total bets placed) and BetRivers (total money wagered).

Another team bettors at both sportsbooks have a buy sign on in Week 6: the sizzling Washington Commanders. Despite being on 4-0 SU and ATS run that is as shocking as it is impressive, Washington (4-1) is a 6.5-point underdog at regional rival Baltimore (3-1).

Customers at BetMGM and Bet Rivers believe the Commanders will at least keep it close.

Here’s a complete rundown of the top five teams  at both sportsbooks that have drawn the most early point-spread action:

BetMGM: Lions -3.5 at Cowboys (90% of bets); Commanders +6.5 at Ravens (88%); Bengals -3.5 at Giants (80%); Bears -2.5 vs. Jaguars (76%); 49ers -3.5 at Seattle (71%).

BetRivers: Steelers -3 at Raiders (81.5%); Falcons -6 at Panthers (80.1%); Commanders +6.5 at Ravens (79.8%); Lions -3.5 at Cowboys (75.9%); 49ers -3.5 at Seahawks (75.7%).

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Points aplenty expected in Nashville

Back in Week 13 of last season, the Indianapolis Colts traveled to Tennessee and outlasted the Titans 31-28 in overtime. It was the first time since the 2018 campaign that a Colts-Titans battle in Nashville ended with more than 41 combined points.

It also was just the second time in six head-to-head clashes overall that the AFC South rivals hurdled 41 points (both exceptions involved overtime).  

These facts have not kept BetMGM’s early-week bettors from wagering on a high-scoring affair Sunday in Tennessee.

As of Tuesday morning, Colts-Titans Over 42.5 had attracted more action at BetMGM than any other Week 6 total. In fact, 96% of the wagers placed on the Indy-Tennessee total were on the Over.

The sportsbook’s next most-bet total for Week 6 as of early in the week also involves division rivals. On Monday night, the Bills travel to New York to take on the Jets. 

BetMGM initially opened the total at 42.5, but a flood of bets on the Under pushed the number down to 41. As of Tuesday, 92% of the tickets on the Bills-Jets total at BetMGM were on the Under.

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Unlike the overwhelming support for Colts-Titans Over, however, this one makes sense. Buffalo and New York have stayed under the total in five straight series meetings and eight of the last 10 overall (including four of five in New York).

What’s more, the teams failed to produce more than 38 points in each of the eight matchups that fell short of the total. Also, the Bills have tallied just 30 points the last two weeks — which is four more than the Jets put up.

Aside from Colts-Titans and Bills-Jets, here are the contests that round out the five totals that pulled in the most early Week 6 action at BetMGM:

  • Browns-Eagles Under 43.5 (90%)
  • 49ers-Seahawks Over 47.5 (62%)
  • Jaguars-Bears Under 44.5 (60%)

Tracking the Week 6 action

Kansas City and Minnesota aren’t the only teams taking Week 6 off. Miami and the Los Angeles Rams are idle, too. That leaves bettors with a 14-game card to pick apart on the NFL betting board.

So far, bettors at DraftKings share strong opinions on several matchups. As of Tuesday night, eight games had lopsided point-spread spread action (betting splits of 75% or higher), while five totals qualified as one-sided.

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The Week 6 sides drawing unbalanced tickets and/or handle action at DraftKings are:

  • Falcons -6 (at Panthers): 88% tickets; 88% money
  • Steelers -3 (at Raiders): 84% tickets; 82% money
  • Lions -3 (at Cowboys): 76% tickets; 91% money
  • Bears -2.5 (vs. Jaguars): 75% tickets; 84% money
  • Bengals -3.5 (at Giants, Sunday Night Football): 76% tickets; 78% money
  • Buccaneers -3.5 (at Saints): 91% money
  • Bills -2 (at Jets, Monday Night Football): 79% tickets
  • Texans -7 (at Patriots): 76% tickets

The Week 6 totals seeing heavy wagering on either the Over or Under are:

  • Buccaneers-Saints Over 41.5: 82% tickets; 81% money
  • Commanders-Ravens Over 52.5: 87% money
  • Chargers-Broncos Under 35.5: 85% money
  • Steelers-Raiders Under 36.5: 75% money

As for two-way action on Week 6 point spreads at DraftKings, bettors are lined up on opposite sides on just two games:

  • Packers (-5) at Cardinals (+5): Arizona 54% tickets; Green Bay 63% money
  • Chargers (-3) at Broncos (+3): Denver 59% tickets; Los Angeles 52% money

Lastly, there’s a difference of opinion on five Week 6 totals at DraftKings:

  • Texans at Patriots (38 points): Over 63% tickets; Under 74% money
  • Falcons at Panthers (47.5 points): Over 59% tickets; Under 73% money
  • Steelers at Raiders (36.5 points): Over 58% tickets; Under 75% money
  • Chargers at Broncos (35.5 points): Over 57% tickets; Under 85% money
  • Bills at Jets (41 points): Over 65% tickets; Under 58% money