Yankees vs. Royals odds, preview and predictions for ALDS Game 2

What to look for as New York aims to take the first two at home against Kansas City

Saturday’s ALDS opener at Yankee Stadium featured five lead changes – the most ever in a postseason contest. The final scoring swing occurred when Yankees OF Alex Verdugo capped a 2-for-3 night with an RBI single in the bottom of the seventh. New York found a way to win despite not having big nights from two of its best players and with a terrific effort from Clay Holmes and Luke Weaver out of the bullpen. 

On Monday, FanDuel Sportsbook has the Yankees favored on the moneyline at -152 with Kansas City at +128. Betting the Royals against the spread and giving 1.5 runs is currently at +172, while taking the Yankees and getting 1.5 runs is at +142. You can learn more about betting on the run line in our MLB betting guide.

The starting pitching match-up features a pair of lefties. New York sends Carlos Rodón to the hill. The 31-year-old will be making his postseason debut following a regular season in which he finished with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.223 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Royals give the ball to Cole Ragans – seeking a split before heading back to Kauffman Stadium. The 26-year-old had the fifth-most strikeouts in the American League along with a 3.14 ERA.

The Yankees will try to continue the tremendous success they’ve enjoyed against the Royals this season. Including Saturday, New York has won six of the eight meetings versus Kansas City in 2024 with a run differential of +11. 

Below, you will find tips and a best bet for this ALDS Game 2, which are available to make at the best online sportsbooks.

Expect better outings from pitchers

Rodón is not the same pitcher he was for the better part of seven years on Chicago’s South Side and in 2022 for the San Francisco Giants, but he has improved from a massively disappointing 2023 season. Plus, his five starts over the past month gave reason to believe he’s on the upswing: a 2.20 ERA, 34 strikeouts, and 10 walks over 28.2 innings.

He was also solid in two outings against the Royals. Rodón allowed five hits and one run without walking a batter over seven frames on June 10. About three months later, in a six-inning appearance, he gave up two runs and a walk while fanning nine. DraftKings Sportsbook has him recording 6+ strikeouts at +120 odds. 

Ragans’ playoff debut a week ago could not have gone much better. He four-hit the Orioles over six innings – never permitting a walk and striking out eight – as his team got a 1-0 road victory in the opener of the Wild Card Series at Camden Yards. Left calf cramps prevented Ragans from going longer, but it seemingly will have no effect on his readiness for the assignment at Yankee Stadium. 

Once the calendar turned to September, Ragans became even more effective – never allowing more than four hits and two runs in any of his last five appearances. Each of those outings went at least six innings. The over on 15.5 outs recorded is +120 on DraftKings.

A major factor influencing the potential for less scoring – and why the under on the 7.5 run total at -106 can be enticing – is the off-day in between these first two games in the Bronx. The additional rest will allow both managers to better utilize their respective bullpens. 

Matt Quatraro can bring back Lucas Erceg after a 1.1 appearance with three strikeouts and complement him with Kris Bubic, who has performed well lately (with a 1.50 September ERA). In fact, K.C.’s relievers recently strung together a scoreless streak to underscore their recent improvement. 

Aaron Boone is able to use Luke Weaver for the second straight game. Weaver has been a revelation in a Yankee relief staff that was shaky at times this season. Since effectively taking over the closer role from Clay Holmes, Weaver has been near impossible to score upon – not having allowed an earned run since September 2. 

Best bet for Royals vs. Yankees: New York Yankees -1.5 (+142, FanDuel)

The Royals covering the +1.5 run spread is juiced up to -172, which conversely has allowed the Yankee number to have more appeal. 

New York’s Game 1 victory came in spite of its own faults. A key fielding error by Anthony Volpe in the sixth eventually flipped the lead back to Kansas City temporarily. Giancarlo Stanton’s inability to run the basepaths well cost the Yankees a pair of runs. Both Stanton and Aaron Judge were each 0-for-4 at the plate, with Judge striking out three times. Gerrit Cole wasn’t dominant over his five-plus innings.

But with the benefit of a favorable seventh-inning call on a Jazz Chisolm Jr. stolen base attempt and clutch hitting from Verdugo and Gleyber Torres, the Yanks did what good teams do – win when you’re not at your best. 

After a likely AL MVP season in which he totaled 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, and staggering league-leading figures in on-base percentage (.458), slugging percentage (.701), and OPS (1.159), it’s a safe assumption that bad nights from Judge are few and far between. His September slump behind him, he belted a home run in five of his last six outings before Saturday. His odds to deliver another round-tripper Monday is +235 on BetRivers. 

As for the other half of the Yankee power duo, Juan Soto went 3-for-5 in the Game 1 and has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 postseason games dating back to 2022 with the San Diego Padres. Soto is +125 on FanDuel to record at least two total bases and the trends both present and recent past favor this. 

There’s also every reason to believe Weaver and Holmes are available after working for more than an inning each on Saturday. So taking the Yankees to win by at least two at home and getting plus money feels like a good bet.