Best anytime touchdown prop bets for Saints vs. Falcons Week 4 game

Tight ends Kyle Pitts and Taysom Hill are two solid bets to get in the endzone this week

The New Orleans Saints visit the Atlanta Falcons in a crucial matchup of NFC South rivals in Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season. The NFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions this season, and the Saints and Falcons currently have the best betting odds in the NFL division winner futures market. This week’s game could have huge implications at the end of the season. 

In this article, we’ll be looking at the best anytime touchdown prop bets in this matchup. We’re not only looking at which players are the most likely to score a touchdown but also which players represent the best value in terms of the current betting odds. We’ve looked across all of the best online sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds for all the recommended bets discussed below.

Avoid Alvin Kamara (-105, DraftKings) and Bijan Robinson (-140, bet365)

Before getting into our favorite picks, let’s start by discussing why we’re avoiding the two star running backs in this game. Neither Bijan Robinson nor Alvin Kamara represents a good value given their current odds in the anytime touchdown market this week. Sure, both players are the most likely players to score a touchdown, but the odds at less than even money on both players just don’t offer enough potential payback for those bets. 

Points could be at a premium in this matchup that features two solid defenses (the over/under of 41.0 at DratKings Sportsbook is on the low side this week). Both teams also have strong red zone defenses so far this season – the Saints are 3rd (25%) and the Falcons are 11th (36.4%). For those reasons, we’re going to focus on players who offer more upside if we hit on one of these bets for an anytime touchdown in this game.

Kyle Pitts (+200, Caesars)

In a season in which tight end production is down across the league, as many of the top tight ends have underperformed, it feels like it may be ill-advised to start with a perennial disappointment like Kyle Pitts as our favorite anytime touchdown in this matchup, but that’s exactly what we’re doing. The main reason for this pick has less to do with Pitts and more to do with the Saints’ defense. The Saints allowed the second-most touchdowns (8) to opposing tight ends last season. While they have yet to allow a tight end to score this season, they have allowed the third-most yards (72.3 per game) to the position after getting torched by the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert for 170 last week. 

Pitts may not have lived up to his expectations as a top-10 NFL Draft pick so far in his career, but he is still a supremely talented player with a chance to explode at any moment. The Falcons have also leaned slightly more toward the pass when they have gotten into the red zone this season (14 passes vs. 12 rushes). Pitts is second on the team with three red zone targets in three games and has caught one touchdown so far. We like his chances to score again in this matchup, especially with the +200 odds at Caesars Sportsbook. 

Taysom Hill (+330, FanDuel)

Taysom Hill has been one of the most versatile weapons in the NFL for years, and he is especially dangerous in the red zone. Hill had 27 rushing attempts in the red zone last year, which was 35% of the Saints’ total red zone carries. He converted four of those attempts for touchdowns and also added another touchdown through the air. Overall, his six total touchdowns were tied with Kamara for the team lead.

Hill has been quiet so far this season and he missed last week’s game with a chest injury, but he has already returned to practice as a full participant this week and should be good to go in this game. It won’t be long before the Saints look to get Hill more involved in the offense, and this could be the week that happens. Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak loves to run the ball in the red zone. The Saints have rushed the ball 19 times and only attempted seven passes inside the 20 so far this season. Most of that work has gone to Kamara, but given Hill’s usage in the past, it’s hard to imagine he will go another game without getting any work in the red zone. 

If you like this pick and want to place a bet, you can head over to FanDuel Sportsbook to get the best odds.

Rashid Shaheed (+260, FanDuel)

After a scorching start to the season 169 yards and two touchdowns over the first two weeks, Shaheed was shut out last week against the Eagles. However, he still had five targets including one that would have been a touchdown but was broken up at the last minute. Shaheed is a threat to bust a big play at any moment, and it looked like his talent was unlocked in the first two games playing in Klint Kubiak’s scheme. 

Shaheed is tied with Chris Olave for the team lead in targets this season with 14 and Derek Carr could be looking his way more often this week with Olave battling against former All-Pro cornerback AJ Terrell. Shaheed could also get some “squeaky wheel” treatment after going catchless last week. We’re not going to get scared off by last week’s quiet outing. Instead, we’re going to buy the dip in his anytime touchdown odds at FanDuel.