NFL division winner futures line movements after Week 3

The NFC West and NFC North have become much tighter races after the Seahawks and Vikings made big jumps.

After three weeks of the 2024 NFL season, line movements at BetMGM in the division winner futures market show that some divisional races have gotten much tighter, while others have seen one team become even more firmly entrenched as the favorites.

Monitoring how betting odds are changing at top online sportsbooks is a great way to understand how teams are performing beyond just their wins and losses. It can confirm what NFL fans already are thinking about their teams, or it can reveal some surprising insights into what to expect for the rest of the season. It’s also an important habit for a good NFL betting strategy.

Let’s dive into the biggest changes in the futures betting markets for NFL division winners at BetMGM after the Week 3 games. If you want to place any bets after reading this article, you may want to check out the best sportsbook promos going on right now. 

Seahawks rising in tighter NFC West

When the NFL division winners futures market first opened, the San Francisco 49ers were the biggest division favorite in the league with -210 odds. Now, they are not even in the top four favorites as their odds have slipped into plus territory (+105) after losing to the injury-plagued Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 to fall to 1-2 on the season. 

The main beneficiary of the 49ers’ early season struggles is the Seattle Seahawks, who are one of five remaining undefeated teams. Their odds to win the division have climbed steadily each week and now sit at +185. Their jump of 140 points from +325 last week was the second-biggest of any team this week whose odds were +500 or higher last week (more on the team ahead of them later). 

The Rams also made a nice jump thanks to that win over the 49ers, but they still are the biggest longshot in the division at +800. Here’s a look at how the odds to win this increasingly competitive division have moved since they first opened. It is now one of four divisions with a favorite whose odds are in plus territory.

Team	Opening Odds	After Week 1	After Week 2	Current Odds
Arizona Cardinals	+1100	+1400	+650	+650
Los Angeles Rams	+400	+600	+1200	+800
San Francisco 49ers	-210	-250	-175	+105
Seattle Seahawks	+650	+500	+325	+185

Cardinals getting heavy action after Week 3

While the Cardinals’ odds did not change after a close loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 3, the sports betting community has been betting heavily on Arizona over the last week. When we looked at the most popular division winner futures bets last week, the 49ers were getting most of the handle in this division at 43.1%. Since then, the percentage of the money wagered on the Cardinals has skyrocketed from 13.4% to 47.7%.

Here’s a look at how the ticket percentage and handle percentage in this division have changed over the last week.

	Ticket %		Handle %
Team	After Week 2	After Week 3	After Week 2	After Week 3
Arizona Cardinals	22.9%	26.5%	13.4%	47.7%
Los Angeles Rams	27.2%	24.9%	20.9%	12.1%
San Francisco 49ers	23.0%	22.0%	43.1%	26.2%
Seattle Seahawks	27.0%	26.5%	22.1%	14.0%

A massive change like that is only possible with some serious money coming in on the Cardinals. The modest increase in Arizona’s bet percentage means that it wasn’t just an influx of bets that caused the dramatic increase in the handle. While some of it could be attributed to an increase in the total bets, there also would have to be some very large bets being placed on the Cardinals to cause such a significant change.

Vikings gaining on Lions in NFC North

Another hotly contested division is the NFC North, which has become a much tighter race since the season began. The Lions were heavy favorites after Week 1 at -145, but after a home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a close game against the Cardinals, those odds have flipped to +145. 

A big factor impacting those odds is the red-hot start by the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have been one of the biggest surprises of the season so far, after picking up huge wins over two Super Bowl contenders in the 49ers and Houston Texans. Sam Darnold leads the league in touchdown passes (eight) and ranks in the top five in both passer rating (117.3, second) and QBR (73.5, fifth). Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense is leading the league with just 10.0 points allowed per game, and it is first in defensive DVOA and third in defensive EPA.

The Vikings’ odds to win the NFC North have increased from +600 after Week 1 to +180 now. Only four other teams have seen a bigger increase in their division winner odds over that timeframe. A division title would be a huge boon for BetMGM, which has received just 4.8% of the handle on Minnesota so far. That is the fifth-lowest handle percentage in the league, although it is likely to rise if the Vikings keep this up. 

Here is a look at the line movement so far in this division, as well as the current ticket and handle percentages.

Team	Opening Odds	After Week 1	After Week 2	Current Odds	Ticket %	Handle %
Chicago Bears	+450	+350	+700	+1200	24.1%	12.9%
Detroit Lions	+150	-145	+105	+145	50.8%	72.5%
Green Bay Packers	+220	+600	+375	+300	16.8%	9.8%
Minnesota Vikings	+400	+600	+275	+180	8.4%	4.8%

Tightest division race is in NFC South

The division with the closest gap between the current favorite and the top contender(s) is the NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons opened as the favorites at +140 and remained the favorites even after their dismal Week 1 performance, but the Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints both jumped them and became co-favorites with +160 odds after each team started out 2-0. This is the only division in which the betting favorite has switched teams so far this season (although the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals briefly were co-favorites in the AFC North).

The Saints are now the sole favorites at +150 even after losing in Week 3, but the Falcons have jumped back into second place at +175. That +25 margin currently is the smallest gap between a division favorite and the second favorite. The +110 margin between the Saints’ and the Buccaneers’ current odds (+260) also is the smallest gap between a division favorite and the team with the third-best odds in any division. 

The Saints had one of the biggest jumps in handle share over the last week, which is not surprising considering they also were the most popular Super Bowl futures bet last week. Only the Cardinals’ astronomical handle share increase discussed above was greater than the Saints’ jump from 12.8% to 18.0%. This division also has the smallest gap between the team with the biggest share of the handle (Carolina Panthers, 38.8%) and the team with the smallest share (Buccaneers, 12.2%). 

We covered the Panthers’ surprisingly high handle percentage last week. Carolina also made the biggest overall jump in its odds of any team this week, moving from +12500 to +2000 after Andy Dalton restored some competence to the offense.

Here is a look at the line movement so far in the NFC South, as well as the current ticket and handle percentages.

Team	Opening Odds	After Week 1	After Week 2	Current Odds	Ticket %	Handle %
Atlanta Falcons	+140	+145	+225	+175	20.9%	31.1%
Carolina Panthers	+800	+2500	+12500	+2000	43.2%	38.8%
New Orleans Saints	+280	+200	+160	+150	18.1%	18.0%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+230	+220	+160	+260	17.8%	12.2%

Steelers jump Bengals while Ravens return to AFC North favorites

Despite starting out 0-3, the Bengals still have the 11th-best odds (+2500) to win Super Bowl LIX at BetMGM. Those odds still are significantly higher than the Pittsburgh Steelers’ current odds (+3500). However, the Steelers (+225) now have better odds than the Bengals (+260) to win the AFC North.

As noted above, the Ravens were tied with the Bengals at +195 last week after both teams started out 0-2. Baltimore now reclaimed its status as the favorite in this division at +135. Only two other current division favorites (the Saints and Lions, discussed above) have higher odds than the Ravens. 

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns suffered one of the biggest falls in division odds of any team this week. After losing to the New York Giants this week, the Browns’ odds dropped from +450 to +1100. Only three other teams (New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders) experienced a steeper decline than that 650-point slide. The Browns’ Week 2 victory over the still-winless Jacksonville Jaguars doesn’t look quite as good as it did a week ago, while their Week 1 blowout loss at home against the Cowboys looks even worse after Dallas dropped its next two games.

Here is a summary of the line movement so far in the AFC North, as well as the current ticket and handle percentages.

Team	Opening Odds	After Week 1	After Week 2	Current Odds	Ticket %	Handle %
Baltimore Ravens	+105	+110	+195	+135	19.1%	26.2%
Cincinnati Bengals	+175	+230	+195	+260	30.2%	38.9%
Cleveland Browns	+500	+550	+450	+1100	16.0%	10.0%
Pittsburgh Steelers	+1200	+550	+350	+225	34.7%	25.0%

Rounding up insights from other divisions

Let’s take a look at some other noteworthy changes in the other four divisions.

NFC East: Cowboys slide

The Cowboys tumbled from +145 to +260 after falling to 1-2, while the other three teams in the division all saw their odds increase. The Philadelphia Eagles are now heavy favorites at -200 after bouncing back from their disappointing Week 2 loss with an impressive road win over the Saints.

AFC West: Chiefs dominate

The Kansas City Chiefs have dominated the AFC West with eight straight division titles, and their odds to make it nine in a row increased from -400 to -900. That was the biggest jump of any team whose odds started at +500 or higher, and the fourth-biggest jump overall. The back-to-back champs are, by far, the most heavily favored team in the league to win its division.

AFC East: Bills rising

The Buffalo Bills have not been quite as dominant as the Chiefs, but they have won four straight division titles and saw their odds to extend that streak rise from -115 to -185. Thanks partly to their bevy of injuries at quarterback, the Miami Dolphins have seen the third-biggest decline in their division odds since Week 1, tumbling from +180 (and the co-favorites) to +1000. 

AFC South: Texans steady

The Texans’ odds only made a small drop from -300 to -250 despite their blowout loss to the Vikings in Week 3. They still have the second-best odds to win their division of any team in the league. The Jaguars’ odds actually increased from +550 to +500 after getting blown out by Buffalo, while the Indianapolis Colts made a nice jump from +750 to +500 after beating the Chicago Bears.