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Best bet, stats and preview for Oregon vs. Purdue on Friday night
Oregon is 27.5-point favorites as they take on Purdue
After earning one of the signature wins of the college football season, the Oregon Ducks now face the worst team in the Big Ten on Friday night. Oregon is favored by 28.5 points on BetMGM at Purdue, the largest point spread in the country this week and nearly double the amount of any other road favorite.
Oregon is 6-0, with wins over Ohio State and Boise State. Purdue is 1-5 with its lone win over Indiana Stat, but showed life coming back from a 27-3 deficit to force overtime before falling 50-49 to Illinois last week
With a sky-high over/under total of 60.0 at Caesars Sportsbook for Oregon-Purdue, the oddsmakers are expecting Friday night fireworks.
Why bet on Oregon
Oregon has arguably the best resume in the country, having beaten No. 4 Ohio State and No. 15 Boise State. (No. 1 Texas’ only ranked win is over No. 24 Michigan.)
Dillon Gabriel has completed over 76% of his passes, the best mark in the nation of any passer with 100-plus attempts, while throwing for 13 scores and running for four more. Gabriel also has plenty of weapons around him. Wide receiver Tez Johnson (50 receptions, 470 yards, 6 TD) is a strong No. 1 option, and Evan Stewart (14.4 yards per reception) might be even more talented. Running back Jordan James (667 rushing yards, 6.0 yards per carry, 6 TD) is one of the most dynamic runners in the country. The offensive line is also rounding into form after early hiccups.
Having just faced Ohio State’s Will Howard, the Oregon defense should be reasonably well prepared for Purdue’s new dual-threat quarterback, Ryan Browne.
The talent gap here is immense. If the Ducks are committed to playing the full 60 minutes, they should cover the number.
Why bet on Purdue
The Boilermakers are facing an Oregon team coming off an emotionally and physically taxing win over Ohio State. The Ducks are also flying most of the way across the country on short rest. Oregon’s first trip away from the West Coast this season has letdown written all over it.
The Ducks have not pressed on the gas at all times. See their lackluster 24-14 win over Idaho State and letting Michigan State score 10 points late for a backdoor cover in their 31-10 win. Oregon seems to be eyeing bigger prizes than blowing out every overmatched opponent.
The degree to which Purdue is overmatched is somewhat in question after last week. Starting for an injured Hudson Card, Purdue Browne threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns and ran for 118 yards against Illinois. The Boilermakers’ 49 points were more than they’d scored combined against four other FBS opponents.
Best bet for Purdue vs. Oregon: Under 13.5 points, first quarter (+108, FanDuel)
Oregon will probably win comfortably, but the Ducks may not open up their playbook enough to score a ton of points. Especially with a week to scout Browne, the Ducks’ defense could smother Purdue.
Garbage time is especially unpredictable. Everything pointing to the full-game over-under of 60.0 hitting rings even more true for the first quarter.
Oregon has not scored more than seven points in the first quarter in a game all season. The Ducks have often taken their time to feel out their opponent.
Purdue has scored in the first quarter once all season, a touchdown on a short field against Indiana State in the season opener.
If Oregon isn’t operating at full speed for this game, that should be evident early.